FXMarathon2021
FXMarathon2021 Feb 28, 2021 at 18:34
Predictive Analysis for the week 01/03/2021 to 05/03/2021.
4 pairs under my radar for the week, because of higher ADR, are Gold, GU, GJ and EJ, might not be in the same order.
Gold – After January Doji candle, February printed a perfect bearish candle, closing well below the Open, selling off more than 1,300 Pips. Next KPL is almost 1,700 pips away, 1560 / 1540 levels. For the consecutive 2nd week, Gold printed LH n LL, confirming the bearish bias. On the Daily, after printing weekly Low, daily candle pulled back, leaving a big wick at the bottom. There is a kind of Bullish Divergence also. On 4H, last 4h candle turned out to be both a Doji and an inside bar. Oscillator is way over sold. There has to be some retracement and pull back. On 1H again, there was a double bottom late in the market and a little pull back. Monthly and weekly candles are highly bearish but 4h n below time frames are indicating a pullback which is understandable after the 2,500 pips sell off. I will wait for the reversal and pullback and the consolidation there off to be over and start selling. I’m a SELLER ONLY till 1560 / 1540 levels.
GU – After 4 months of unprecedented rally, February month candle left a wick on the top, indicating rally to be over. And most importantly GU touched 2018 High’s and retraced from that level. Look left, Market and Structure leaves Clues. First of all, the rally since three months was very surprising as UK is completely shut down. Weekly candle confirms this reversal. After six weeks, GU printed a bearish candle with close below the open, negligible wick at the bottom and a huge wick at the top. Wednesday Daily candle was a kind of Inverted Hammer, though personally I should have appreciated a smaller or no wick at the bottom. Both Thursday and Friday Daily candles were proper bearish candles and printed LH and LL confirming that rally is over. On 4H, there is a consolidation happening right on the nearest KPL, which is understandable after 350 pips sell off and the market approaching weekend. Nothing to write about 1H TF. Wait for the Friday Low to be broken and start selling.
GJ – February monthly candle closed a proper Bullish candle. Little under 700 pips from 2018 High’s. 700 pips is not a big value on monthly candle as tremendous amount of price action happens on monthly time frame. But after three months, monthly candle left a bigger top wick compared to previous three months’ top wick, indicating that rally might be getting over. Just as in GU, the GJ rally also did not have fundamentals or price action to support the rally. Weekly candle printed a proper inverted hammer, leaving a huge wick at the top, confirming that the rally is over, by far. Oscillator is overbought even now on weekly candle. Daily candle, though is kind of dilemma. Thursday was a proper bearish candle. Friday candle closed below the open but left a big wick at the bottom, pulling back from Friday Low. Price, now, is right at 2019 High’s. And the oscillator is way overbought. Will there be a re test? Waiting and patience is premium to be a professional trader. On 4H, the 4H candle before the last 4h candle printed Doji and last candle of the week turned out to be a bearish candle, indicating that the pull back from the weekly Low might be over. On 1H candle, the last two 1H candles were bearish and printed LH LL and might very well open with a gap down on Monday, 01/03/2021. Wait for Friday low to be broken and sell.
EJ –January monthly candle printed hammer candle indicating EJ will rally which happened. February Monthly candle left a slightly bigger wick on the top compared to the bottom wick. Oscillator is not yet overbought and has a little space to go up. After five weeks of rally, weekly candle left a big wick on the top indicating that the rally might just be over. Point to remember is that oscillator is not overbought and has space to travel up. On daily, if Thursday candle left a bigger wick on the top, Friday candle closed well below the open and turned out a proper bearish candle. And the oscillator is right at the overbought zone indicating a trend reversal might be happening. On 4H, though we do not have proper LH and LL to confirm a down trend, the last but one 4H candle printed an inverted hammer candle and the last 4H candle of the week was a proper bearish candle and the oscillator is coming down from a way overbought zone. On 1H, price is teasing the Friday Low and consolidating right at that zone. Though, smaller time frame price action confirms that the down trend might have started, higher time frame price action does not confirm the same. Neutral bias. Wait for proper confirmation to trade and strictly intraday and short term trades only.
I have taken all the news events into consideration but will have an eye on the non-scheduled news that might be coming in and will change the trading strategies accordingly.
Trade what you see not what you think or feel is our simple thumb rule.
Trade well. Make profit and retain the profit. Rinse and repeat.