Dollar Tumbles Amidst Uncertain U.S. Trade Policy, Easing Inflation

(RTTNews) - The U.S. dollar tumbled against major currencies during the week ended April 11 amidst renewed uncertainty in respect of U.S. trade policy and softer-than expected CPI readings. The greenback inter alia plunged against the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Japanese yen. The Dollar Index also recorded a massive plunge to three-year lows as the dollar remained under pressure from heightened fears of a U.S. recession.

After imposing heavy reciprocal tariffs on its trade partners, the U.S. suddenly changed course and announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs. The tariff spat between the U.S. and China that continued - with each side slapping steep trade tariffs on each other - however exacerbated the market's nervousness.

The Dollar Index, a measure of the Dollar's strength against a basket of currencies comprising the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Canadian Dollar, the Swedish Krona and the Swiss franc closed trading on April 11 at 100.10, about 2.8 percent lower than the level of 103.02 recorded a week earlier. The week's trading range was much wider, oscillating between the high of 103.54 recorded on Monday and the low of 99.01 recorded on Friday.

Minutes of the FOMC released on Wednesday revealed the Fed's anxiety about stagflation and the potentially challenging trade-off between higher inflation and the slower growth and employment.

Softer-than expected CPI readings from the U.S. also abetted the Dollar's decline. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed annual headline inflation in the U.S. declining to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent in February. Markets had expected it to decline to only 2.6 percent by March. The core component thereof which was seen declining to 3 percent from 3.1 percent in February eased more than expected to 2.8 percent. Month-on-month inflation, which was expected to edge down to 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent in February recorded -0.1 percent. The core component which was anticipated to rise to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent in February unexpectedly declined to 0.1 percent.

Data released on Friday morning that showed factory gate prices in the U.S. unexpectedly decreasing 0.4 percent month-over-month in March also added to the Fed rate cut expectations, exerting pressure on the greenback. The data revealed the first decline in producer price inflation since October 2023.

Amidst the dollar's massive weakness, the EUR/USD pair surged 3.7 percent during the week ended April 11. From the level of 1.0955 on April 4, the EUR/USD pair jumped to 1.1360 by April 11. The weekly trading ranged between the low of 1.0883 recorded on Monday and the high of 1.1475 on Friday.

The sterling rallied 1.5 percent against the greenback during the week ended April 11 amidst the massive turbulence on the trade tariffs front and a bruised dollar. The GBP/USD pair rose to 1.3080 on April 11 from 1.2890 a week earlier. The sterling's weekly trading range was between $1.2707 recorded on Monday and $1.3146 on Friday. Data released on Friday had shown the British economy expanding by 0.5 percent month-over-month in February, versus a revised flat reading in January and exceeding expectations of an increase of 0.1 percent.

The Australian Dollar jumped more than 4 percent against the greenback during the week ended April 11. From the level of 0.6041 recorded on April 4, the AUD/USD pair rallied to 0.6285 in a week's time amidst intensifying trade tensions between China and the U.S. The pair which had dropped to a low of 0.5914 on Wednesday climbed to touch the week's high of 0.6301 on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair slipped 2.3 percent during the week ended April 11 as it closed at 143.51 versus 146.90 a week earlier. Safe haven demand for the yen and the dollar's weakness dragged down the pair. The pair ranged between the high of 148.29 recorded on Wednesday and the low of 142.07 recorded on Friday.

On the horizon are minutes of the RBA meeting held two weeks ago, due for release on Monday. The AUD/USD pair has in the meanwhile increased to 0.6294. Amidst the persisting uncertainty in the global trade tariff environment, the DXY has decreased further to 99.94. Ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision due on Thursday, the EUR/USD pair has slipped to 1.1327. The GBP/USD pair has increased to 1.3155 ahead of the unemployment data due on Tuesday and the inflation update due on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair has increased to 143.62 even as markets wait for the CPI update due on Thursday.