EURSEK Exchange Rate

Germany's consumer prices logged a steady pace of increase in April reflecting the stickiness of inflation despite the disinflationary pressure gaining strength over recent months. The consumer price index posted an annual growth of 2.2 percent, which was the same rate as seen in March and weaker than economists' forecast of 2.3 percent. The current 2.2 percent inflation was the lowest since 2021.

Euro area economic sentiment deteriorated further in April largely reflecting the difficulties in the industrial sector, survey data revealed on Monday. The economic confidence index dropped to 95.6 in April from 96.2 in the previous month, the European Commission said. The economic sentiment index deteriorated notably in industry, and services, retail trade and construction experienced moder

Germany's consumer confidence is set to rise again in May to hit a two-year high as households turned more optimistic about future income, adding to the list of positive indicators that suggests the biggest euro area economy is likely to undergo a very shallow recession. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index rose to -24.2 in May from a revised value of -27.3 in April.

Germany's business sentiment strengthened for the third straight month to a near one-year high in April on a notable improvement in confidence among service providers. The business confidence index climbed to 89.4 in April from a revised 87.9 in March, monthly survey results from the ifo Institute showed on Wednesday. This was the highest score since May 2023, when the reading was 91.4.

EUR/USD has dropped to 1.0800, influenced by the Fed and a cautious market. Today's focus is on the eurozone's January CPI release, expecting a dip to 2.7% YoY in the headline rate and 3.2% YoY in the core rate – the lowest since March 2022.

The EUR/USD pair has bounced back from its recent low of 1.0450, but it could struggle to find enough buyers as it approaches the 1.0530/1.0550 range. The US dollar remains an unattractive sell, and there is currently no compelling narrative in the eurozone to counter the exceptionalism story in the United States.

EUR: Becalmed the EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting tight trading ranges, influenced significantly by US Treasury yields and USD/CNH movements in the relatively quiet summer market conditions. The short-term range appears to be fluctuating between 1.0850 and 1.0930, and a substantial breakout might not occur until the release of flash PMI readings for August, expected today.

Events in Russia have had little discernible impact on the FX market so far. Instead, the hot topic of high inflation and what policymakers are prepared to do about it remains the market's priority. This will be at the top of the agenda at this week's ECB's annual symposium in Sintra. Expect another mixed week in FX markets and possible BoJ intervention.