ATFX Market Outlook 10th March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 10th March 2025 

U.S. Job Growth Disappoints: Powell Dismisses Rate Cut Hopes in Latest Speech

[Markets highlight]

In February, the U.S. added 151,000 nonfarm payrolls, below the 160,000 estimates, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month. Fed Chairman Powell indicated no rush for interest rate cuts, citing potential tariff inflation.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, but the S&P 500 fell 3.1% for the week. The dollar index dropped to a four-month low, down 3.4% weekly, while the euro rose to 1.0845 against the dollar. Gold prices gained 1.7% for the week due to safe-haven demand. Oil prices stabilised after Trump threatened sanctions on Russia, though U.S. crude oil fell 3.9% weekly.

The U.S. has shifted to daylight saving time, advancing market times by one hour. On Monday, key Eurozone data included the March Sentix Investor Confidence Index and the German January industrial output and trade account. The recent ECB decision may reduce the impact of these releases unless they exceed expectations. Also, the U.S. New York Fed's February inflation expectations for potential increases should be monitored.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

US Daylight Saving Time Start

15:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production JAN ** 

15:00 EU GERMANY Trade Balance JAN **

23:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations FEB ** 

Tomorrow

07:50 JP GDP Final Q4 ** 

08:30 AU NAB Business Confidence FEB ** 

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index FEB ** 

22:00 US JOLTs Job Openings JAN ** 

EURUSD

1.0932/1.0980 Resistance

1.0808/1.0771 Support

The euro rose 4.4% against the U.S. dollar last week, hitting a four-month high of 1.0888 after the U.S. jobs data. This trend continued with traders looking to break above 1.0900. Upcoming Eurozone economic data will be crucial for the euro's movement, reflecting positive developments in Germany and dollar weakness. A break above 1.0900 could signal increased investor confidence in the Eurozone’s economic outlook.

GBPUSD

1.2986/1.3057 Resistance

1.2873/1.2817 Support

The sterling reached its highest level against the U.S. dollar since November 8, marking its biggest weekly gain since November 2022. After breaking through 1.2900, it now targets the 1.3000 mark, though resistance may be encountered. The pound's strength reflects positive market sentiment, and traders should monitor for potential resistance and factors that might affect its momentum.

USDJPY

147.84/148.09 Resistance

146.79/146.54 Support

The USD/JPY fell to its lowest level since early October on Friday, briefly recovering to support at 146.94 before declining again this morning, dropping below 148. This volatility highlights the dollar's weakness. The 146.94 level is crucial; a failure to hold could lead to further declines, while a rebound may signal renewed buying interest. Traders should monitor economic data and geopolitical developments impacting the dollar's strength.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

67.88/68.51 Resistance

65.82/65.20 Support

The U.S. Department of Energy plans to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while Trump considers sanctions on Russia. Crude oil rose 2% on Friday, ending a five-day losing streak, but it is near the 10-day moving average. Traders should watch for consolidation in the lower range, especially the $66 support level, as recent U.S. energy policies and geopolitical tensions contribute to market volatility. 

Spot Gold

2938/2956 Resistance

2894/2880 Support

Spot Silver

32.87/33.20 Resistance

32.08/31.81 Support

Spot gold struggled to gain momentum despite safe-haven inflows and weak U.S. non-farm payroll growth, closing slightly lower. Key moving averages support it, but its rebound relies on the market’s reaction to the non-farm data. Gold's failure to break its trading range indicates market hesitation. Traders should monitor upcoming economic indicators closely, and geopolitical tensions contribute to market volatility. 

Dow Futures

43343/43574 Resistance

42283/42056 Support

Last Friday, the major U.S. stock indexes closed higher after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reassured the market. The Dow Futures found support near 42,170, following its lowest level since January, with a potential rebound testing the 10-day moving average at 43,170. This rebound demonstrates market resilience amid trade policy uncertainty, but traders should stay cautious of geopolitical developments and Fed comments to guide the market.

NAS100

20540/20789 Resistance

19888/19695 Support

Last Friday, large tech stocks had mixed results after a weaker non-farm payroll report. The Nasdaq dipped to an intraday low of 19,700 but bounced back to above 20,000. If the upward trend continues, the focus will shift to the 20,500 resistance level. This mixed performance highlights market volatility, and traders should monitor the evolving sentiment.

BTC

84712/86707 Resistance

78254/76292 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $87K last Friday, falling over 4% due to speculation from the White House Crypto Summit and plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The decline is linked to a strong correlation with traditional stock markets, which have faced challenges since mid-February. Other altcoins like Ether (ETH), XRP, and ADA also saw declines, reflecting investor caution. On Sunday evening, Bitcoin was down 5.47% at $81,555, while Ether fell 5.4% to $2,024.68. On Monday's Asian trading session, the cryptocurrency continued its downward trend.

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