ATFX Market Outlook 25th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 25th  August 2025

Powell’s Dovish Signal Ignites Risk Rally, Dow Hits Record High

Market HighlightFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts may be needed but stressed caution, while unveiling a new policy framework with a flexible inflation target. U.S. equities closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record closing high. Investors poured into risk assets, driving the Dow up 1.89%, the S&P 500 up 1.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.88%.

The U.S. dollar broadly weakened after Powell signaled the possibility of a September rate cut without committing to it. The dollar index fell 0.96% to 97.66. The euro climbed 1.06% to 1.1728, the dollar dropped 1.08% against the yen to 146.77, and sterling rose 0.86% to 1.3527.

Gold rebounded on Friday as Powell’s comments reinforced expectations for a September cut. Spot gold gained 0.99% to settle at $3,371.67 per ounce. Crude oil futures steadied, posting their first weekly gain in three weeks, with uncertainty lingering over a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal.

Key Outlook

Markets will continue digesting Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks today. With U.K. markets closed for a holiday, European trading is expected to be subdued. Data to watch includes Germany’s August Ifo Business Climate Index, forecast to rise for a sixth straight month though at a slower pace. In the U.S., focus will be on July new home sales and the August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, with markets watching for another downside surprise.

Key Data and Events Today:

UK Holiday 

16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate AUG ** 

22:00 US New Home Sales JUL ** 

22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG ** 

Tomorrow: 

09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes *** 

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL **  

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence AUG **

 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1748/1.1766

· Support: 1.1656/1.1638

EUR/USD surged 1.06% to 1.1728 after Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks boosted September rate-cut bets, while the ECB is expected to hold policy steady. Technically, support lies at 1.1656, and a break higher could target 1.1748.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3540/1.3564

· Support: 1.3467/1.3437

GBP/USD rallied above 1.3527 after Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks lifted September cut odds to 90%. Technically, a sustained break above 1.3540 could open the way toward 1.3564 - 1.3600, while strong support rests at 1.3467–1.3437.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.81/148.18

· Support: 146.90/146.60

USD/JPY slid 1.08% to 146.77 after Powell’s dovish speech drove yields lower and boosted yen demand. The pair rebounded from 146.90 support, eyeing recovery toward 147.81–148.18 resistance zone. A sustained break above 148.18 would confirm bullish momentum, while failure risks renewed downside toward 146.60.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 64.72/65.35

· Support: 62.69/62.05

WTI rose 0.22% to $63.66, with Brent at $67.73, supported by strong U.S. demand and uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Price holds above $62.69 key support, with bullish structure pointing toward $64.72 resistance. A break higher would confirm further upside, while failure risks retesting $62.69.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3393/3409

· Support: 3339/3322

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 39.18/39.45

· Support: 38.49/38.28

Spot gold surged 1.1% to $3373.89, supported by Powell’s dovish tilt and stronger rate-cut bets. Price is holding above $3339 support, with upside momentum targeting the $3393–3400 resistance zone. A sustained break above would confirm bullish continuation, while failure risks a pullback to $3339.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46020/46199

· Support: 45250/45065

The Dow Futures surged 1.89% to a record 45,631.74. Price broke out 45,250 resistance, turning it into a key support zone. If it holds above this level and the rising trendline, momentum favors a push toward 46,020 resistance. A break below 45,250 would weaken the bullish bias.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23821/23971

· Support: 23323/23170

The NAS100 rebounded to 21,496.54 ,holding above this level favors a move toward 23,821, while a break lower risks a drop to 23,323 support. Momentum is improving, but a trend shift needs confirmation above the descending channel.

BTC

· Resistance: 115251/116739

· Support: 110460/ 109047

BTC trades near $112,874, pressured after Powell’s dovish but cautious Jackson Hole remarks. Key support lies at $110,460, where buyers may defend. A rebound could target $115,251, while a break lower risks further downside.

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