ATFX Market Outlook 2nd May 2025

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ATFX Market Outlook 2nd May 2025

Trade Tensions Ease: Wall Street and Dollar Rebound Ahead of Key Jobs Report

Market HighlightMarkets rallied overnight on upbeat sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index extended gains for a third session, reclaiming the 100 mark to close at 100.18, supported by optimism over trade talks and stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing data. U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, with the 10-year yield at 4.221% and the 2-year at 3.709%. 

U.S. equities closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones marking their eighth straight gain. Strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta drove tech stocks higher, lifting Nasdaq by 1.52%. Apple fell over 2% after-hours as its services revenue was disappointing. 

Gold fell for a third straight day as easing trade tensions and Asian holiday closures reduced safe-haven demand. Spot gold briefly dipped near $3,200 before settling at $3,238.18/oz, down 1.53%. Oil prices rebounded sharply after the postponement of U.S.-Iran talks and Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers. WTI rose to $58.72, and Brent to $61.80. 

Key Outlook

Markets are now awaiting the April U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with expectations for 130K job additions and a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%. A weaker report could boost expectations for a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the dollar while supporting gold and equities. Conversely, a strong report may temper easing bets. The Eurozone CPI flash and final manufacturing PMIs are also due, which are key for gauging the ECB’s rate path in June. A sharp slowdown in CPI may weigh on the euro. March factory orders in the U.S. will also be monitored for signs of industrial softness. Volatility may rise ahead of these high-impact data releases.

Key Data and Events Today:

China Holiday

15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final APR ** 

16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final APR **

17:00 EU CPI Flash APR ** 

20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls APR *** 

22:00 US Factory Orders MAR ** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

Japan, China, Hong Kong, UK Holiday and US ISM Services PMI on Monday

Japan Holiday, EU and GB Services & Composite PMI, US Balance of Trade on Tuesday

EU German Factory Orders and EU Retail Sales on Wednesday

FOMC and BoE Interest Rate Decision on Thursday

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1345 / 1.1381

· Support: 1.1227 / 1.1190

EUR/USD is below 1.1290 as the USD strengthens on US-China trade hopes. Attention is on today's NFP report (forecast: +130K, jobless rate 4.2%). A weak report may boost the euro, but ECB rate cut bets continue to pressure the EUR.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3337 / 1.3362

· Support: 1.3230 / 1.3205

GBP/USD breaks below 1.33 as weak UK and US manufacturing data weigh on sentiment. The UK PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month, heightening expectations for a rate cut by the Boe. US jobless claims have surged, and ISM data remains below 50, bolstering the USD. Short-term pressure persists on GBP, with Friday’s NFP likely influencing future Fed expectations.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 147.04 / 148.28

· Support: 145.09/ 144.10

USD/JPY climbed to a two-week high near 146.00 after the Bank of Japan maintained rates and reduced GDP and inflation forecasts. US jobless claims rose to 241K, and the ISM manufacturing PMI fell, increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut. Despite mixed US data, higher Treasury yields support the dollar. If Friday’s NFP data disappoints, USD/JPY could rise toward 148.00.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUNE)

· Resistance: 61.12/ 62.54

· Support: 57.67/ 56.55

On Thursday, oil rose nearly 2% as Trump threatened secondary Iran sanctions and delayed U.S.-Iran talks. WTI closed at $59.24. Sanctions could cut 1.5M bpd of supply. OPEC+ may boost output in June, while Saudi Arabia accepts lower prices. U.S. Q1 contraction raised recession fears. Today’s NFP data (expected +130K) may pressure oil.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3274/3310

· Support: 3194/3158

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 32.74/32.96

· Support: 32.07/31.79

Gold fell to a two-week low near $3,214 yesterday, pressured by easing US-China trade tensions, stronger USD, and rebounding equities. US initial jobless claims rose to 241K, and ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7, signaling slower economic momentum. All eyes are on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls; a weaker print could support gold. Technically, XAU/USD broke below the 20-day SMA A break below $3,200 may open the door to $3,188 and $3,176 support.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41931/42269

· Support: 40009/39660

Microsoft and Meta’s upbeat Q1 results lifted the Dow above 41,000, but weak jobless claims and manufacturing PMI capped gains. Recession concerns linger, with markets pricing in 94 bps of Fed cuts for 2025. Technically, failure to hold above 41,000 may lead to a pullback toward 40,500 or April lows near 39,500.

NAS100

· Resistance: 20310/20728

· Support: 19307/18871

MegaTech equity rose 1.5% on Thursday, led by Microsoft and Meta earnings. Amid US jobless claims hitting 241K, the ISM PMI stayed weak at 48.7, increasing Fed cut rate expectations, while the NAS100 rose. Markets now await Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

BTC

· Resistance: 98080/ 98430

· Support: 95860 / 95413

Bitcoin briefly surged past $97,000 following reports that Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab plan to offer crypto trading, fueling optimism for wider institutional adoption. Technically, BTC remains in a strong uptrend. The price is holding above the ascending trendline and consolidating near $96,800. If the $93,300–$94,000 support zone holds, bulls may push for a breakout toward $100,000 and beyond. 

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