ATFX ​Market Outlook 2nd September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 2nd September 2025

Gold Climbed to a 4M High. Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Jobs Report.Market HighlightU.S. financial markets were closed on Monday for Labour Day. Last week, the dollar fell to a five-week low as investors awaited job market data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The euro rose 0.2% to 1.1709 against the dollar, while the pound increased 0.3% to 1.3543. The dollar gained 0.1% against the yen, trading at 147.17.

Gold prices surged to a four-month high, gaining 0.85% at $3,476 per ounce, as the market closed yesterday and reached nearly $3,500 in the Asia trading session today, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar. Silver also climbed, breaking $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, closing at $41.22 after a 3.9% increase.

Oil prices rose due to supply disruption concerns from intensified airstrikes in Russia and Ukraine, further supported by the weaker dollar.

Key Outlook

As September opens, US and Canadian markets are closed for Labor Day, so overall market guidance and trading volume are likely to be light. Investors should monitor the final August manufacturing PMI readings for major economies, particularly the UK and the Eurozone. Early data suggest that PMIs in key economies remain in contraction. Investors will focus on the US jobs release during the week, including the ADP employment change, jobless claims, the Fed's Beige Book, and non-farm payrolls, which may guide expectations for the Fed's rate cut and impact on the dollar and stock market. 

Key Data and Events Today:

17:00 EU CPI Flash AUG ***

21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final AUG **

22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI AUG *** 

Key Data and Events Tomorrow:

07:00 AU Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

14:00 RBA Governor Speaks *** 

15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

17:00 EU PPI JUL **

22:00 US Factory Orders & JOLTs Job Openings JUL ***  

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1743/1.1763

· Support: 1.1657/1.1637

Eurozone PMI data indicates a recovery, with ECB officials emphasising the need for "flexibility" in policymaking amid inflation uncertainty. The euro has rebounded against the US dollar for three days and is approaching its August high of 1.1743. Today's Eurozone CPI forecast will be vital for evaluating potential interest rate cuts.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3565/1.3595

· Support: 1.3492/1.3468

The UK manufacturing PMI contracted for the 11th month, yet the pound rebounded against the US dollar, marking its largest gain in over a week. It stabilised above the main moving average on the daily chart and hit a two-week high. Attention is now on potential resistance at the 1.3600 level as it nears the previous high.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.80/148.17

· Support: 146.90/146.60

USD/JPY fell below 147.00 but recovered yesterday, demonstrating modest gains for two consecutive days. This morning, it is testing resistance at the primary daily moving average around 147.30 to 147.50. A breakout could indicate a shift from the low-range phase.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 65.36/65.97

· Support: 64.11/63.48

Crude oil prices rose significantly on Monday, boosted by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, despite the introduction of new U.S. tariffs on Indian imports. The rebound followed a dip to the daily moving average, and attention is now focused on whether the resistance level at $65.08, from August 25, will hold.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3506/3517

· Support: 3458/3446

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.19/41.39

· Support: 40.51/40.24

Gold prices remained strong at the start of the week, with spot gold rising for the fifth consecutive day and reaching $3,500, its highest level since April. Meanwhile, spot silver broke through $40 for the first time since September 2011, now targeting $41.19/41.39.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45840/46023

· Support: 45251/45065

The U.S. stock market was closed overnight, with today's focus on U.S. ISM manufacturing data. The Dow might revisit its record high of 45,750 if strong manufacturing data is released. If the previous day’s correction continues, watch for support at the 10-day moving average around 45,250.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23664/23819

· Support: 23170/23017

Nasdaq has fallen below the main daily moving average, which is now acting as resistance near 23500. Monitor for a potential test below 23200. If it rebounds from tonight's ISM manufacturing PMI, there could be a chance to break the moving average and target resistance above 23600.

BTC

· Resistance: 111922/113792

· Support: 105607/ 104116

BTC is currently trading around $109,000 after a roughly 5% weekly dip, with key support near $105,600 and immediate resistance around $110,650. If it breaks, the price will test $111,922 or above. Institutional demand remains supportive (Metaplanet adds 1,009 BTC to ~20,000 BTC), and US spot ETF inflows topped $440m weekly. The market prices in an ~87–88% chance of a September Fed rate cut, which could boost risk assets. Daily RSI is still below neutral (≈41), but a bullish 4-hour RSI divergence hints at a short-term bounce toward $112k–$111k if $113k breaks. A break below $105,000 could open the downside toward $ 104,000 or lower.

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