AUDUSD Analysis: RBA will cut interest rates

Fundamental Analysis of AUDUSDAUDUSD Key Takeaways

• Federal Reserve rate cut expectations fall: Fed member Harker said that the current economic situation supports keeping interest rate policy stable for the time being. Bowman said that before cutting interest rates again, there needs to be stronger confidence in the decline in inflation. Inflation is expected to fall, but upside risks remain.
• RBA interest rate decision: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest interest rate decision, and the market expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut in four years. Since the market has already priced in this rate cut, the key is whether the Reserve Bank of Australia has guidance on future forward interest rates.

Technical Analysis of AUDUSD Daily and Hourly ChartsAUDUSD Daily Chart Insights 

(AUDUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator is about to send a short signal when it enters the overbought area, so be alert to the downward adjustment of the exchange rate.
• Resistance area: AUD/USD is currently oscillating near the upper trend line and the black 65-day MA. Before the announcement of the RBA interest rate decision, it is difficult for the exchange rate to have a clear trend direction.
• Support below: The Australian dollar has been on an upward trend since it started to rebound on February 3. The exchange rate is expected to continue to rise before it effectively falls below the rectangular support area.

AUDUSD 1-hour Chart Analysis

(AUDUSD H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator showed a top divergence and decline signal during yesterday’s Asian session, and then the exchange rate started to adjust the downward trend. Based on the fact that the indicator has not yet entered the oversold area, investors cannot rashly buy the bottom and go long.
• Support price: The exchange rate is currently in a downward trend and is still considered a short-term adjustment before it falls below 0.63312. If the exchange rate continues to fall below the support price, the next target will be near the green 200-period MA.

Pivot Indicator Insights for AUDUSD

(AUDUSD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)

• According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 70.95,
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 70.95, first target 72.10, second target 72.60;
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 70.95, first target 70.60, second target 70.25.

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