Technical Analysis – AUD/USD poised for more upside
AUDUSD continues its recovery, extending toward October’s highs near 0.6625 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) downplayed the chances of further rate cuts while inflation ticked higher. The shift in expectations helped lift the currency out of a brief consolidation phase.
In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its easing stance. While rate reductions are already priced in for this year, markets are watching for hints of additional cuts in early 2026. If confirmed, such expectations could fuel further gains in AUDUSD. However, the Fed will not update its rate or economic projections when its two-day policy meeting concludes today.
Technically, the pair’s break above the simple moving averages (SMAs) has improved the short-term picture. The positive trajectory in the RSI and the stochastic oscillator also support bullish momentum. Still, the pair remains capped below the long-term descending trendline connecting the 2021 and 2024 highs around 0.6615. The nearby 200-week SMA at 0.6660 is another critical resistance. A decisive move above these barriers could open the way toward 0.6770.
On the downside, the 0.6520–0.6560 region, containing the short-term SMAs and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April–September rally, may buffer downside movements. Further weakness below 0.6480 or 0.6400 could shift the outlook to bearish, shifting the spotlight to 0.6340.
Overall, the short-term bias for AUDUSD remains positive, with a close above 0.6615 likely to confirm renewed bullish momentum.
Metals Strength as Fed Cut Boosts Sentiment; USD Softens, Commodities Mixed | 11th December 2025
The dollar is vulnerable to shocks
RBA Hold Weighs on AUD While Oil Eases on Output Recovery | 9th December 2025
The dollar awaits the rate forecast
Markets Lifted by Fed Cut Hopes as Gold Surges; Yen Strengthens, Commodity FX Mixed | 8th December 2025
Markets Steady Ahead of Crucial US PCE Inflation Data | 5th December 2025
Dollar Mixed as Yen Strengthens and AUD Gains on Trade Momentum | 4th December 2025
