Cautious Markets Await FOMC Cluesa | 9th October 2025

FOMC Minutes Loom

Global markets traded cautiously on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The US Dollar held firm, while major currencies such as the Euro, Pound, and Australian Dollar faced renewed selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakened further amid persistent policy divergence, and commodity-linked currencies saw limited recovery following earlier losses.

Pound Sterling Forecast (GBP/USD)

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD trades weaker near 1.3450, pressured by a firmer US Dollar as traders shift toward safe-haven assets ahead of the FOMC minutes. The pair has struggled to sustain recovery momentum, with investors cautious amid dovish expectations from the Bank of England.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Heightened Middle East tensions and cautious global risk sentiment continue to weigh on the Pound’s outlook.

US Economic Data: Strong US labor and services data have supported the greenback, limiting Sterling’s upside.

FOMC Outcome: Traders await the minutes for confirmation of potential rate cuts later this year.

Trade Policy: No major trade headlines, but post-Brexit trade dynamics continue to cap GBP strength.

Monetary Policy: The BoE’s cautious tone contrasts with possible Fed easing, leaving GBP vulnerable.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish below 1.3500.

Resistance: 1.3520 and 1.3575.

Support: 1.3400 and 1.3350.

Forecast: GBP/USD likely to remain under pressure, testing lower supports if FOMC tone stays hawkish.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish bias as traders prefer USD exposure.

Catalysts: Upcoming FOMC minutes and BoE commentary later this week.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD trades around 0.5820, recovering slightly after steep losses following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s cautious tone. The pair’s rebound remains limited as the market awaits further direction from US monetary policy clues.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global risk-off sentiment continues to dampen demand for high-yielding assets like the Kiwi.

US Economic Data: Better-than-expected US ISM data reinforces USD strength.

FOMC Outcome: Traders expect dovish signals, which could aid NZD recovery if risk appetite improves.

Trade Policy: China’s trade recovery could provide indirect support to the NZD.

Monetary Policy: The RBNZ’s neutral stance contrasts with potential Fed cuts, limiting upside momentum.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Slightly bearish with limited rebounds.

Resistance: 0.5860 and 0.5900.

Support: 0.5780 and 0.5745.

Forecast: NZD/USD likely to consolidate, with risks tilted to the downside if the USD extends gains.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Mixed to bearish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes release and NZ business confidence data.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD trades near 1.1705, struggling to find support as the Dollar remains broadly firm. Downside risks have increased according to UOB Group, reflecting ongoing pressure from divergent policy paths between the Fed and the ECB.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global tensions and energy concerns in Europe weigh on the Euro.

US Economic Data: Stronger-than-expected data continues to back USD demand.

FOMC Outcome: Investors expect modest dovish remarks but not enough to reverse USD strength.

Trade Policy: Limited new trade developments, but global growth concerns persist.

Monetary Policy: ECB’s cautious approach contrasts with Fed’s possible easing bias. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish bias persists below 1.1750.

Resistance: 1.1740 and 1.1780.

Support: 1.1670 and 1.1630.

Forecast: EUR/USD may retest recent lows unless FOMC signals weaken the Dollar.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes and ECB policymakers’ speeches.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades around 0.6570, extending losses after weak Australian building approvals data. The pair faces continued downside pressure amid strong USD momentum and subdued risk appetite.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Regional growth concerns and slowing Chinese demand weigh on the Aussie.

US Economic Data: Robust US economic releases sustain USD demand.

FOMC Outcome: A dovish tilt could offer short-term relief for the Aussie.

Trade Policy: China-Australia trade ties remain stable, but weak export demand limits gains.

Monetary Policy: The RBA remains cautious, while markets eye Fed direction for near-term cues. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish under 0.6600.

Resistance: 0.6605 and 0.6650.

Support: 0.6555 and 0.6520.

Forecast: AUD/USD likely to test lower levels if USD strength persists post-FOMC.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, RBA’s next policy update.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY trades near 151.40, marking a new multi-month high as policy divergence between the BoJ and the Fed widens. The Yen remains heavily offered amid uncertainty surrounding Japan’s fiscal policies and BoJ’s rate outlook.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Regional tensions and a strong USD continue to weaken JPY demand.

US Economic Data: Positive US figures keep the Dollar supported.

FOMC Outcome: Any hawkish surprise could push USD/JPY to fresh highs.

Trade Policy: Limited direct trade developments impacting JPY.

Monetary Policy: BoJ’s accommodative stance remains a key bearish driver for the Yen. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Strongly bullish.

Resistance: 151.80 and 152.30.

Support: 150.90 and 150.40.

Forecast: USD/JPY could extend gains if BoJ signals no immediate policy tightening.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, BoJ statements, and US yield movements.

Wrap-up

Overall, the cautious sentiment reflected growing uncertainty ahead of key US policy insights, with traders balancing soft global growth signals against expectations of eventual Fed easing. The FOMC minutes could set the tone for upcoming sessions, potentially influencing risk appetite and currency direction heading into the end of the week.

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