Markets Steady Ahead of Crucial US PCE Inflation Data | 5th December 2025

Steady Markets Await PCE

Markets are holding steady as traders await the release of the US PCE inflation data, a crucial indicator for Federal Reserve policy. Key assets like gold, silver, oil, and major currency pairs show cautious positioning ahead of this influential report.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades flat near $4,205 during early Asian hours. Rising US Treasury yields and strong US jobs data limit upside ahead of the delayed US PCE inflation report.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty in Ukraine peace talks boosts safe-haven flows to gold.

US Economic Data: Lower-than-expected jobless claims at 191K support USD, capping gold gains; PCE data awaited for Fed clues.

FOMC Outcome: Expected 25 bps rate cut next week reduces gold’s opportunity cost.

Trade Policy: No direct mentions, but broader tensions could favor safe-havens.

Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations underpin non-yielding gold.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Flat with upside capped by yields.

Resistance: Near $4,205 current levels.

Support: Not specified, but recent consolidation around $4,200.

Forecast: Sideways until PCE; hotter data may pressure lower.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautious, sidelined traders await PCE.

Catalysts: PCE inflation release later today.

Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises 0.5% to near $57.50 after correcting from $58.90 all-time high. Gains stem from firm dovish Fed cut expectations.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact noted.

US Economic Data: Weak ADP jobs data at -32K fuels rate cut bets.

FOMC Outcome: 87% odds of 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%.

Trade Policy: Not highlighted.

Monetary Policy: FOMC officials cite labor risks for further easing. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Firm uptrend above rising 20-day EMA at $53.91.

Resistance: Near $57.51; overbought RSI at 68.48.

Support: 20-day EMA.

Forecast: Upward bias if above EMA; consolidation possible.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish momentum building.

Catalysts:Fed meeting next week.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude trades around $59.45, holding below $60 amid rising US stockpiles signaling excess supply. Fed rate cut bets provide downside cushion.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine attacks on Russian Druzhba pipeline raise supply concerns.

US Economic Data: EIA stockpiles up 574K barrels vs. expected draw.

FOMC Outcome: 89% chance of 25 bps cut next week.

Trade Policy: Not specified.

Monetary Policy: 89 bps easing priced in by year-end boosts demand outlook. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Downward pressure from supply.

Resistance: $60.00.

Support: Around $59.45 current levels.

Forecast: Stabilizing with Fed support; supply risks key. 

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously supported by rate bets.

Catalysts: Geopolitical supply disruptions.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD holds above 0.6600 near two-month high. Steady positioning persists ahead of US PCE data.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Minimal direct influence.

US Economic Data: PCE report to signal Fed path.

FOMC Outcome: Rate cut odds weigh on USD.

Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations aid AUD. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish near highs.

Resistance: Two-month peak levels.

Support: 0.6600.

Forecast: Steady unless PCE surprises.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Optimistic above key level.

Catalysts: US PCE inflation data.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD trades flat near 1.3330 amid PCE wait. Constructive above 1.3300 despite UK slowdown concerns.

Key Drivers

US Economic Data:  PCE for rate path hints.

FOMC Outcome: 89% odds of 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%.

Monetary Policy: BoE cuts to 3.75% eyed, but Fed weighs more. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Firmer above 100-EMA at 1.3300.

Resistance:Upper Bollinger at 1.3348.

Support: 100-EMA 1.3300, then 1.3189.

Forecast: Bullish if holds EMA; volatility rising.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Positive momentum, RSI 61.

Catalysts: PCE data today.

Wrap-up

The upcoming PCE inflation figures will likely shape market sentiment and guide future price movements. Investors should monitor developments closely to adjust strategies in response to evolving economic signals.

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