GBP already passed its bottom, despite UK job market data

Expert market comment from Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: GBP already passed its bottom, despite UK job market data
FxPro | vor 1015 Tagen

GBP already passed its bottom, despite UK job market data

A fresh batch of UK labour market data points to a turn for the worse, foreshadowing an economic slowdown sooner than in Europe or the USA.

Jobless claims in September rose by 25.5k after a nominal increase of 1.1k a month earlier. This is a much more substantial increase than the expected 4.2k and demonstrates an apparent reversal in the trend.

Just over 1.5m people in the UK are now receiving benefits, not far from the highs of the 2009-2013 period and 0.3m higher than before the pandemic. So, the cycle in the labour market here has reversed without ever reaching the point of full recovery.

In this context, the unemployment rate fall to 3.5% – the lowest since 1974 – is the result of an exit from the labour force rather than a tight labour market.

In the three months to August, wages, including bonuses, rose by 6% to the same period a year earlier – a marked acceleration from 5.5% the month before. This attempt to catch up with inflation, which stood at 9.9% YoY in August, is triggering the increase in benefit claims we mentioned above.

Meanwhile, GBPUSD is declining for the fifth consecutive trading session on the FX market. The initial downward momentum in the pair after the employment data came up against moderate buying around 1.10, a psychologically crucial round level. For now, however, it is unlikely that Pound buyers have enough strength at this stage to reverse the trend of recent days.

A glance at the short-term dynamics of GBPUSD allows us to expect more buying activity at 1.0900, where local resistances of September 26 and 28 are located and where the rapid growth of September 29 started.

Despite the worsening macroeconomic backdrop for the pound, many problematic expectations may already be embedded in the pound's quotes. If we are right, a period of consolidation could start for GBPUSD, as it did from April to May 2020 or from October 2016 to January 2017, followed by a reversal to growth.

 

By the FxPro Analyst Team

Vorschrift: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
ATFX Market Outlook 23rd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 23rd July 2025

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, despite a sharp drop in General Motors and gains in Tesla, as investors focused on recent and upcoming corporate earnings and signs of progress in U.S. trade negotiations. U.S. equity indices were mixed: the Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 edged higher, and the Nasdaq fell 0.39%.
ATFX | vor 2Std 38 Minuten
ATFX Market Outlook 22nd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 22nd July 2025

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Monday, led by gains in Alphabet and other mega-cap tech stocks. Investors remain optimistic that a potential trade deal could offset the economic damage from the Trump administration's global tariffs, as several major companies are set to report earnings this week. Among the main indices, the Dow dipped slightly, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.38%
ATFX | vor 1 Tagen
Gold Advances Amid Global Trade Concerns, USD Mixed Across Majors

Gold Advances Amid Global Trade Concerns, USD Mixed Across Majors

Gold prices extended their climb Monday, holding near the $3,350 mark, as renewed global trade tensions and cautious risk sentiment spurred demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar traded mixed across major pairs, with investor hesitation reflecting growing uncertainty over potential tariffs and uneven economic data.
Moneta Markets | vor 2 Tagen
ATFX Market Outlook 21st July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 21st July 2025

Last Friday, the U.S. dollar weakened, supported by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, although some Fed officials remained cautious due to concerns about inflation. The dollar continued to trade on the softer side, with the euro rising over 0.26% against the greenback.
ATFX | vor 2 Tagen
ATFX Market Outlook 18th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 18th July 2025

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, indicating a modest improvement in economic activity. The data provided to the Federal Reserve offered additional justification for delaying rate cuts while assessing the inflationary impact of import tariffs.
ATFX | vor 4 Tagen
Dovish Fed Lifts EUR, GBP, AUD

Dovish Fed Lifts EUR, GBP, AUD

On July 17, dovish Fed commentary drove the US Dollar lower, lifting major currencies and risk sentiment globally. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1600, GBP/USD neared 1.3450, and AUD/USD gained traction above 0.6800. Markets welcomed signs of US-China trade stability, while attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. consumer sentiment data and Eurozone inflation. With the Fed turning more cautious, traders ar
Moneta Markets | vor 5 Tagen
ATFX Market Outlook 17th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th July 2025

The Fed’s Beige Book showed moderate economic growth but flagged rising price pressures due to tariffs, casting a pessimistic outlook. U.S. equities closed modestly higher on Wednesday after intraday volatility sparked by reports that President Trump planned to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Stocks rebounded late in the session, with the Nasdaq hitting another record high.The Dow Jones rose 0.5%
ATFX | vor 6 Tagen