EUR recorded a second consecutive loss against USD on Thursday. The bearish trend dominated during the whole session as a result of this support at 1.0915 was pierced in the early hours. Short-term indicators remain in favor of USD and it is expected downward direction of the pair to continue until the key levels at 1.0817 and then the price can be corrected. The trading on Thursday launched at 1.0949, and EUR lost 76 pips. Bottom of the day was noted at 1.0855.
Yesterday the EURUSD fell testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level (support) at 1.0860 as expected and closed near the low of the day. The currency is in a critical support and today we may see some consolidation or even a minor pullback. But a break below 61.8% Fibonacci level (support) at 1.0860 would force the price down to a daily support at 1.0622.
If we were to be in a 'more normal' market the EUR/USD would be falling simply due to the fundamental picture. Ironically it has received a ton of support during the Greek crisis thus far to make sure that it doesn't appear to the masses that the Euro as a force is all but finished.
What the past couple of weeks have shown if that Germany will try anything to keep the Euro-zone together. Greece may still be in there for now but it became clear that Greece had it future dictated to it and had no choice but to accept the greater of two evils and stay in Europe at a cost of decades of pain to its citizens.
This was not the friendly to quote a phrase much used - 'we are all in this together' situation - this was dictatorship - pure and simple. Memories of another German dictator in the past and a lust for collecting countries come to mind and we all know the result of that.
I guess now that Europe is intact the pair may be allowed to float freely and that will see the fundamentals taking over and the pair heading down toward the 1.04 level. After that is will depend on the speed or indeed presence of any monetary tightening that takes place in the US and Euro. But Europe are way behind the ball on that one - with a QE process not completed or priced into the market as of yet.
So a medium term strong short and sell on any peeks - good luck to all
Be careful folks. Whenever there is consensus generated on its sharp fall it bounced back at least for a while. In trading such speculation based on mainstream media and other traders' personal opinion can be disastrous.
Do what your technical analysis is telling you...that's all. Absolutely nothing else.
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