"Just Oil"

Too bad for your results Chikot, but as you say this is only a bump in the road that may eventually lead you to FX successes. You are right to see this as a long term game, nothing comes easy and certainly not succesfully trade fx. Continue trading, practicing and perfecting your art and subconscious, 'cause there is were the real knowledge will be after 5 or 10 years of trading this market.

For next week I will be looking for longs if we dont get any bad news over the weekend, the AUD/YEN looks very promising, the AUD/$ too, the EUR/AUD looks promising to hit the previous low at least. The problem with all these trades is that they are all too dependent on the performance of the AUD/$.

On longer term I love the EUR/GBP and the GBP/YEN trade for a good SHORT if they go a little bit higher. I think these are trades which can offer a good R/R if you have the patience to wait for a good short level, this is often the problem with obvious trades with the trend: people don't have the patience to trade with Limits and open position with market orders which diminishes the potential profits..I too make this mistake almost everytime.

Define risk, limit risk and accept risk.

It's called whipsaw 😁 I got whipped.
But I still have a couple of good trades running , let's see where they end and although I see gbp/usd as a loss things happen. aud/jpy was 3 times 3-10 pips from my stop... and it is 250 pips in profit.
I was watching to short gbp/jpy but signal did not happen.
On my part I did everything right so losses are not bad.
The only thing I need to change my profit taking. leave more for later rounds. around 30-50%.
I definitely improving. having average winner so many times bigger than average loser and having trades +600 pips. it never happened before. definite change in mental department. my average wins to losses always were about same then started changing gradually and now shot up.
the most important part is to make small but important changes to my trade management.

frankly that was not pleasant view when I got up at 2:00 a.m. est night here to check on trades and saw those huge daily green candles against my short positions. been all green before going to bed. I wonder how some guys trade without stops and big leverage.

next week more opportunities . there have been few signals to watch for entries. if I get on a few nice trends it would cover everything, but the most important is to follow the plan.
I am trasnferring some live funds to my Oanda account so , trades already might get started live next week.

as soon as I start trading live I will trade live account with regular hard stops like I have been trading this demo but will use my unrealized profit sparingly to have more chances to profit from developed trend. still first profit will be taken at around 1:1 r:r 0.2% of position. I am making no changes. i am happy with what I see cause I know trends happen and I will be on a lot of them. This demo I will continue trading with slightly different rules. Firstly I will cut position size to 70% of what I used now. second, hard stops will be pretty far away about 2-2.5 daily ATR and will be more like a safe guard against a catastrophic moves which can happen suddenly. My actual stop will be either ema's cross against me or when I am well in profit and protecting profits or decided to reduce risk i will move stop to either BE or some swing low / high.

Mino, results are good. not bad. my equity was almost always same as my realized profit around 3-5%. which means a lot. news could have moved trades in my favor too and it will happen. the most important I was trading with good risk control, according to a plan, let my profits run and exercised self control. My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers... each trade managed on its own merit.
Generally I was total 10% in one month with low leverage equity and balance which is good especially that I made few costly mistakes. most traders grow fat tails and show 'good' results and then blow clients and their own money.
every trend trader knows it is called whipsaw and nothing can be done about it. the point is, this behavior lets me get onto real big trend and then profits will be really big. Trade well and results will follow. I have no annual goal but 20-30% annually would make me really happy and from what i see it is pretty possible with this style.
The most important my psychology has changed fundamentally. pip count does not lie.

'My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers... each trade managed on its own merit. '

this is one of my biggest mistakes.
trades after the loosers are nothing todo with the loosers loss.

walker

   stevewalker posted:
   'My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers... each trade managed on its own merit. '

this is one of my biggest mistakes.
trades after the loosers are nothing todo with the loosers loss.

walker

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position.

what I say is

IMO corolating trades each other is not logic. especially P/L base

   Chikot posted:
   

   stevewalker posted:
   'My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers... each trade managed on its own merit. '

this is one of my biggest mistakes.
trades after the loosers are nothing todo with the loosers loss.

walker

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position.

Simply put you agree with me regarding managing each trade separately 😉
 

   stevewalker posted:
   what I say is

IMO corolating trades each other is not logic. especially P/L base

   Chikot posted:
   

   stevewalker posted:
   'My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers... each trade managed on its own merit. '

this is one of my biggest mistakes.
trades after the loosers are nothing todo with the loosers loss.

walker

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position.

yes, and not keep them open longer then it should be to rescue the last looser loss.😉

   Chikot posted:
   Simply put you agree with me regarding managing each trade separately 😉
 

   stevewalker posted:
   what I say is

IMO corolating trades each other is not logic. especially P/L base

   Chikot posted:
   

   stevewalker posted:
   'My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers... each trade managed on its own merit. '

this is one of my biggest mistakes.
trades after the loosers are nothing todo with the loosers loss.

walker

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position.

Those new trades were fine. entries were perfect and according to plan. the only mistake was to reopen eur/usd and gbp/usd shorts. I consider gbp/usd short which is still opened a loss. I was all in profit when going to bed from 30 to 100 pips on new trades. interestingly, I closed usd/jpy for small loss it did not hit stop loss and now it would be in nice pips up. hence, I am not going to close trades manually unless ema's cross against me.

   stevewalker posted:
   yes, and not keep them open longer then it should be to rescue the last looser loss.😉

   Chikot posted:
   Simply put you agree with me regarding managing each trade separately 😉
 

   stevewalker posted:
   what I say is

IMO corolating trades each other is not logic. especially P/L base

   Chikot posted:
   

   stevewalker posted:
   'My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers... each trade managed on its own merit. '

this is one of my biggest mistakes.
trades after the loosers are nothing todo with the loosers loss.

walker

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position.

there is no save a loser part in my plan. there is only cut a loser part.

'My 2 trades are running and I did not close them to compensate for losers'

   Chikot posted:
   there is no save a loser part in my plan. there is only cut a loser part.

these 2 parts seem to me not connected at all. those 2 running trades keep running because the trend is still running. it is according to my plan. they are not running because I expect anyhting but because the trend is still in their direction.

i should not have closed 10000 units on gbp/aud.

   Chikot posted:
   frankly that was not pleasant view when I got up at 2:00 a.m. est night here to check on trades and saw those huge daily green candles against my short positions. been all green before going to bed. I wonder how some guys trade without stops and big leverage.

Those guys don't make it :D

I always try to hedge a part of my open positions, that way I'm sure that I can minimize my losses, even if my gains will not be as big. For example you can Buy the EUR/$ ( this is the main position ) and you can buy the $/CHF to offset any losses, since the $/CHF is (most of the times) a little less volatile then the EUR/$. The important thing is to manage your stops every day and to close one of both position in time to not break even. This is the way i sometimes trade

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position.

That's I think what most traders do: they have a few very big winning positions in the year 'cause they managed it good and let the profits run in their favor, on the other hand they can have a mirriad of failed trades which are all stopped out. So finding these big potential winners is of key importance, otherwise nobody can be in profit, only the best can have a 60% winning rate of closed trades (and I don't count the scalpers).

   Chikot posted:
   these 2 parts seem to me not connected at all. those 2 running trades keep running because the trend is still running. it is according to my plan. they are not running because I expect anyhting but because the trend is still in their direction.

The trend is certainly in your direction, just take a look on the weekly, for this trend to end it will have to go up at least above 1.65 :D and that is very far away, it should go to the previous low at 1.45 if the AUD continues to strenghten. For next week and the weeks after that I will try to reinforce my EUR/AUD short, at least if the positive momentum continues, nothing is less certain

I'm also going to open a second FXCM demo account to try a different trading style with position building and swing trading to try to capture swings of a few hundred pips on big positions, it's going to be interesting!

I really dont understand this hedging issue.
the thing you do is not hedge. you double your risk.

Airline componays Hedge their fuel cost and they make money from ticket sale. Hedge is this.
hedge is to fix the price of any type of cost for companies.

JP Morgen has lost 2 billion ( now they say 9 billion Usd ) on a hedge trade.

this is not hedge.

you just dobule your risk. sometimes it works and you will double your profit and one day you will triple your loose.

walker

   minosd777 posted:
   

   Chikot posted:
   frankly that was not pleasant view when I got up at 2:00 a.m. est night here to check on trades and saw those huge daily green candles against my short positions. been all green before going to bed. I wonder how some guys trade without stops and big leverage.

Those guys don't make it :D

I always try to hedge a part of my open positions, that way I'm sure that I can minimize my losses, even if my gains will not be as big. For example you can Buy the EUR/$ ( this is the main position ) and you can buy the $/CHF to offset any losses, since the $/CHF is (most of the times) a little less volatile then the EUR/$. The important thing is to manage your stops every day and to close one of both position in time to not break even. This is the way i sometimes trade