Live Track Record

CuongVC posted:
    I will send the invitation link of the account to all in my 'Tracking' list now.

no need to hide. I am not interested any more.

OK, I made it public again. I still prefer to talk in PM so I will seldom post here.

Has been doing as planned.

Am I missing something? 99% win rate. 25% per month.

   KingInvestor posted:
   Am I missing something? 99% win rate. 25% per month.

Yes you are. He adds money into his account to prevent a margin call. Therefore he can not trade with a Fixed amount (investment).

He fails to use a stop loss, he continues to add positions to loosing positions which forces him to periodically add funds until the market turns in his favor. He's been long on EURUSD since 1.4400 or something like that.. So about a 1000 pip Draw down.

I knew that he adds money as shown in the transaction history and as he explained.

The main point to me is the account is making money.

I think, if one only use that technic one may not end up with that good statistic. There must be something else that I have not figured out. That missing part is what I am looking for.

When looking for an investment there are normally two important factors.

1.) ROI == return on investment
2.) risk involved to obtain that ROI

Lets crunch some numbers.

His absolute Gain = 30.69% - Floating loss ( currently 9%) = 21.69% ROI / how many months it took to gain this ROI

21.69% / 7 Months ( march - Sept) = 3.09% ROI per month

3.09% per month is very good ( 36% annually) however lets look into the risk aspect.

on may 2st, 2011 , His account balance == $494 while his equity == $244 this calculates out to 49% Equity

He is forced to ADD funds to prevent Blowing his account.

-05.01.2011 23:58 Deposit 100.00

-04.29.2011 15:15 Deposit 17.00
--------------- CONCLUSION ------------

He is risking more than 50% of his Deposit to earn 3.09% a month. Therefore the RISK far exceeds the reward.

I don't think so, Will.

I am seeing that he has his plan. He said he put money where needed the most.

What I see is the money is growing fast.

The return you calculate is wrong because the absolute gain that myfxbook display assume all deposit and withdraw are happened on day one. That is not right.

I like to have my money grows like this.

Ok lets do it this way.

Deposit - withdraw = $15131

Equity = $18664 therefore Profit is $3533

Profit (3533) / Deposit (15131) = .2334 = 23.3%

His absolute gain is 23.3% / 7 months = Monthly ROI = 3.32%

His MONEY is not growing FAST, his account balance is growing fast =)

 

The problem in your calculation is right here: can not add all the deposit together if they did not happend in the same day/month. You have to know about money flow/ time value of money (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value_of_money)

Simmilar for withdrawals.

I am sorry that I can not explain the intrinsic risk involved with these figures. You'll have to figure it out for yourself.

That is funny because you are the one should figure it out what you did wrong.

I am sorry too that you give up the good oportunity to learn a good thing for your trading.

   ForexScam posted:
   Ok lets do it this way.

Deposit - withdraw = $15131

Equity = $18664 therefore Profit is $3533

Profit (3533) / Deposit (15131) = .2334 = 23.3%

His absolute gain is 23.3% / 7 months = Monthly ROI = 3.32%

His MONEY is not growing FAST, his account balance is growing fast =)

 

Arcording to this method of calculation, what is my return if I withdraw 5,000USD now?
It would be 3533/ (15131-5000)= 3533/10131= 35.97%

Or even better, withdraw 10,000USd now...
The return would be 3533/ (15131-5000)= 3533/10131= 68.85% !

There is something not right in this calculation.

Note that the absolute gain in myfxbook.com is purely equal (profit/total deposit) regardless of withdrawals. Currently it is 5387/17342.24= 31.06%.

If I withdraw 5000USD now, the absolute gain stay the same.

Also, if I deposit 5000USD more now and then withdraw this 5000USD 1 minute after that, the absolute gain would be 5387/(17342.24+5000)= 5387/22342.24= 24.11% since it ignore withdawals. I noticed this (on August 25, 2011): when I deposited 2000USD, I saw the absolute gain reduced and then later I withdraw it (2000USD) in the same day, it didn't come back. It is not right.

This method of absolute return calculation of 'myfxbook.com' need to be changed.

I just know that I am making money and I can expand further.

Have good trades.

Hi SaltyWater,

Your calculation is ok if I don't deposit and withdraw very shortly after that.

For example, if I deposit $10,000 now and then 1hour later withdraw $10,000, the number would be:

Equity = 18250.53 (the same), Withdraw= 12211.07, Deposit= 27342.24

Profit= 18250.53 + 12211.07 - 27342.24 = $3119.36 (the same)

Total % up = Profit/Deposit = 3119.36/27342.24 = 11.4% much smaller than 17% as before the action of depositing and withdrawing the $10,000) --> It is still not right to me.

I think we have to consider the time the money is in the account. In this example the time of the 10,000USD stay in the account is only 1 hour, that money should not be calculated for the whole 7 month return.

I think we have to calculate the return for different periods where there is no depositing and/or withdrawing in the middle of the period. For example: calculate the return per day would be much more accurate (even thought it is still not correct in the case we deposit and withdraw right after that like 1 hour later). Then we can have a return-per-day dailly chart.

This is an interesting topic, thanks for sharing your point.

Cuong

Yes, we have to factor in the time of money stay in the account.

This will be my last post here for one main reason.

CUONG can not Trade successfully on a Fixed balance.

@ King Investor - If you invested 100k with this trader a few months ago, you would have needed to Add another 100k to prevent the first margin call and then another 100k to prevent the next margin and another 100k to be where you are now -

  If that sounds like a good strategy than so be it. Enjoy

Yes I can, Will. You don't know all my technics so you CAN NOT make the conclusion.
I use this technic for better result and when possible (that is why I have said before: 'I know my money' and 'I am expanding this business'). Clients should be aware and agree upfront if this technic should be used or not, then the trading plan can be established accordingly.

Use it when you can for your own good (if you fully understand it). Be carefull when you do use the technic: with this technic only, it is not enough. You still have to be good at entries and exits; and good at posistion sizing.

Good luck to your endeavour.

You must be very happy today, Cuong.

Yes, it was a happy day to me but it did not suprise me since it is within the plan.
Thanks and please note that I prefer to talk about this account in private. I may not reply to you here much but I am sure I will reply to you in private. This apply to all who want to disscuss about this account.

Thank you for the understanding.

Withdrawed 10,000USD, all the number stay the same (not be affected by withdrawals). If I put this 10,000 back the absolute gain will reduce!

Will need come up a better way to evaluate the peformance.