XAUUSD
Gold is currently testing a strong resistance zone. A clear breakout here could open the way for further upside, but if it rejects, we may see a correction toward the 3330 area. On the 4H chart, higher lows are building a bullish bias, though confirmation is still needed.
From a fundamental side, USD strength, Fed policy updates, and upcoming economic data will be key drivers. Traders using a forex funded account should be extra careful with risk management around these levels, since volatility can spike quickly.
GoldAlgo posted:
Gold-Algo here
looking at gold Daily, the price is stuck under a resistance that has been tested multiple of times and is still strong. however, the continuation of the higher lows and the push to the top with tighter and tighter legs seems the price insists on breaking that resistance.
on the 4H chart. the price has entered the block order and reacted to the 50% lever of the OB candle. right after is minimal reaction and move down, but with the strong push to the top and the bullish sentiment, the price might linger in the OB.
now in the 15M chart, if the price breaks the red line down and stay, can be confident and positive in a move down to 3330.
NOW, gold is very much affected and its actions are very much related to the news, China-Taiwan conflict, Russia-Ukraine war, Trump vs cook/FederalReserve news and... all these news, data, quotes, public speaks and tweets and... pushes gold up. so have it in mind that trading bearish is super risky.
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Global Gold Returns to Peak Amid Escalating US-China Tensions
The gold market has regained momentum at the start of the new week, and precious metals are once again experiencing an increase in demand.
The price of gold has risen by about 1% and has surpassed $4,060 per ounce. Although a brief profit-taking moment caused a slight price drop, buyers took the opportunity and, in light of recent developments between Washington and Beijing, re-entered the market.
The verbal clash between the two countries once again highlights the volatility and instability of US economic policies, while also demonstrating that Beijing will not back down in the trade war. This is clearly evident in China’s recent threat to impose tighter controls on the export of rare earth elements.
As a result, gold has once again emerged as the main beneficiary of this tense environment, reaching a new level of $4,077 per ounce just before the start of European trading.
Meanwhile, silver has also risen by more than 2%, crossing the $50 mark and reaching $51.54. Analysts believe this move could pave the way for a new growth trajectory for this precious metal.
#GOLD
Gold is moving too fast next it will touch 4500
Interesting, I was on recent tops, and I never saw such variation these last 2 days, central banks entered in game, but also crypto holders which are converting massively their assets into Gold, as volatility and moves has become more interesting.
Fro what I see, the variations are madness, and should just be a beginning... we will reach 5000 soon if US government is not unlocked soon... If unlocked, we will drop below 4000 in no time.
I recommend to all Gold traders to decrease their lot... to avoid larger DD than expected...
yoyo699 posted:Interesting, I was on recent tops, and I never saw such variation these last 2 days, central banks entered in game, but also crypto holders which are converting massively their assets into Gold, as volatility and moves has become more interesting.
Fro what I see, the variations are madness, and should just be a beginning... we will reach 5000 soon if US government is not unlocked soon... If unlocked, we will drop below 4000 in no time.
I recommend to all Gold traders to decrease their lot... to avoid larger DD than expected...
Wild swings these past two days 😳 Central banks + crypto holders moving into gold is making things crazy. Definitely cutting lot sizes here to avoid huge DD — this feels like just the beginning.
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Gold Algo here,
Precious metals analysts at RBC have made a major forecast and consider further increases in gold prices likely over the next two years. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) predicts that the average gold price in 2026 will be around $4,600, and will reach $5,100 in 2027.Even though gold has risen 60% so far in 2025, RBC believes this upward trend will continue. They say that central-bank buying and investment demand have fundamentally strengthened gold’s value as a non-sovereign asset.
⭕ New price table:
Gold price per ounce in mid-2026: $4,600 per ounce
Gold price per ounce at the end of 2026: $4,800 per ounce
Gold price per ounce in mid-2027: $5,100 per ounce
⭕ RBC highlights four factors underlying this bullish outlook:
1. Geopolitics: “Hostile global politics” are dividing economies and reshaping the growth outlook.
2. Impact of AI: Technological changes create more uncertainty in inflation and growth.
3. Monetary policy: Easier monetary policy is expected on the horizon, even with inflation above target.
4. Debt trap: High government debt and budget deficits remain a “persistent headwind.”
Perhaps the most interesting point for equity traders is RBC’s analysis of producer behavior. Historically, producers behave cyclically — when prices rise, they spend aggressively on mergers and investments, which destroys returns.RBC says this time is different:
Producers are focused on debt reduction and paying dividends.
The net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio across the sector is now zero (0.0×).
Profit margins for 2026 are forecast at about $1,470 per ounce (7× higher than in 2023).
Reserves are calculated using conservative prices below $2,000 (less than 50% of the current spot price).
Equity implications:Royalty companies are the winners. (A royalty company is one that receives a fixed share or monetary royalty from mine production without conducting mining itself.)
With the new commodity thesis, analyst Josh Wolfson has changed his ratings. He says royalty companies are attractive in terms of valuation and are insulated from producers’ cost risks.
Gold Algo here
The global debt crisis has become a driver of gold price growth.The annual interest cost of government debt worldwide has reached a record $4.9 trillion.Interest costs have increased by $1.6 trillion over the past 3 years.Global debt has also grown by $55 trillion in the same period, reaching a record $346 trillion.
At the same time, gold prices have risen 142% and crossed $4,300 per ounce for the first time.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices have had nearly perfect correlation with the interest costs of government debt worldwide.
📌 As the global debt crisis intensifies, investors are rushing toward gold at full speed.
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Another way to look at XAU, especially in geopolitical news context, is through positioning. Gold has attracted heavy defensive exposure over time not because of one event, but because uncertainty stayed unresolved. What I mean is once Ukraine peace talks move into a credible or confident area, that uncertainty collapses and crowded long positions start to unwind with that. Full clarity is too much to ask but when uncertainty narrows downside pressure on gold is something you can expect. In that context gold may weaken. What I am talking about is more of a repricing of risk, not a judgment on XAU at large.That would be visible across most of XAU pairs but XAUUSD especially since that's when gold is priced against the primary global risk and currency.
