$50 to $1 million in 18 months Diskussion

Jack keep up the good work and don't worry about that small hit, all part of the million dollar run. Just shake it off and keep on rolling :) For anyone that is interested Jack is writing about his journey here: https://www.winnersedgetrading.com/zero-to-1-million-weekly-update/

I'll try to do that - thanks for the encouragement - but at the moment I'm still at, 'Stupid, stupid, STUPID!!! Grrrr!' :)
I'll try to play things straight tomorrow.

Not that I've done anything right this week, but I entered that short position I was looking for in Usd/Sgd around 1.2638, based on it hitting up against the 100 MA on both the hourly and 4-hour charts - hopefully that's enough to stop it and turn it south. Again, this is a potential long term trade.
We'll see.

There's always a next time. Worth a try.

I wish I could try it someday.

Not dead yet...but man, that margin is getting tight.

Never give up man😎

How about reversing the strategy...? You know, BUY instead of SELLING, and SELL instead of a BUYING...

Funny, but not totally - I knew a futures trader who did just that - when he thought he should buy, he sold. Worked well for awhile, but then he started getting confused about what his honest impulse was. :)
Seriously though, as is usually the case, the problem wasn't with the trading strategy, but rather with the trader.

FxMasterGuru posted:
How about reversing the strategy...? You know, BUY instead of SELLING, and SELL instead of a BUYING...

you may want to read this:

reversing strategies simply does NOT yield any useful results.

Picture this, you’re becoming frustrated with system development – as you fail to produce anything with an edge – and you start to feel that what you need is precisely the opposite thing. If you find a system which simply has lost money most of the time you’ll be able to “turn it around” so that it becomes a very profitable strategy. Not only does this seem to have a lot of future but people will – without a doubt – easily give away systems that lose money very quickly and you – in a very clever way – will simply turn them around to make your money. What could go wrong in this perfect strategy? The problem comes when you consider the true reasons why strategies and traders fail.
What makes a trader or strategy lose money in the long term? The supposition that reversing a losing strategy produces a profitable one comes from the assumption that a losing strategy has a “negative edge”. This supposes that a strategy behaves like an individual trade (if you had entered that losing trade the other way around you would've made money, right ?) which means that reversion implies the opposite outcome. However when viewing strategies we need to consider that systems and traders lose money NOT because they have a negative edge but simply because they have absolutely no edge, meaning that they will lose money as a consequence of their trading volume and the paying of the spread. Traders and systems without an edge which trade more will lose money faster while traders and systems who trade less often will take longer to lose money. However the reversion of losing strategies only produces another losing strategy because – in most cases – there is simply no edge to begin with. Of course, reversing any profitable strategy produces a losing one but the opposite is NOT true, this arises because profitability requires an edge while losing merely requires you to have none or to have a negative one.

Perhaps this is best illustrated with a simple experiment I carried out a few months ago. I told two aspiring traders that new traders almost always wipe their trading accounts so in order to find out the reason why I told each one to mirror the other trader’s trades. If both beginners had a “negative edge” due to some reason then both of them would in the end make money since they would follow the other’s trades. Each trader had two accounts, their personal account and the account they used to mirror the other person’s trades. In the end the inevitable happened, both traders lost all their money on their 2 accounts (only paper money). Why ? The reason is that beginners lose money because they have NO EDGE not because they have a negative one.

In the end a negative edge is just as rare as a positive one as it implies the finding of an inefficiency which can make you lose money faster than the spread. Definitely finding a losing strategy with a negative edge and reversing it will produce a profitable system but doing this is quite stupid since you will have to do twice the testing to know if the losing system is losing money because it has no edge or because it has a negative one. It just makes more sense to develop strategies seeking for profitability (a positive long term statistical edge) rather than trying to find a negative edge amongst losing systems where almost all losing systems you’ll find simply have no edge whatsoever.

It is also important to make it clear that systems that seem to “lose money all the time” not necessarily have a negative edge as they may simply had no edge but trade too frequently. Any system that has no edge – as I mentioned before – losses money as a function of trading frequency so the more the system trades the quicker and “smoother” its losing of money will become. So next time you think about this idea of “turning a system around” remember that systems lose money because they have NO EDGE and – on the vast majority of cases – not because they have a negative edge. It is much simpler and in fact much more rewarding from a system production point of view to develop systems searching for long term positive statistical edges, what profitable system development is – in the end – all about.

If you would like to learn more about my work in automated trading and how you too can earn a true education in algorithmic trading and likely long term profitable system development please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach towards automated trading in general .

Well, I COULD have made some good money today - bought Gbp/Usd at 1.6573, with a profit target of 1.6610 - called it dead right...unfortunately my execution was less than perfect - got stopped out at 1.6574 about 3 hours before it finally went up...Grrrr. Oh well, picked up a few dollars selling some more Usd/Sgd.

Whew! That's better - got a little breathing, a little margin money to work with. I gotta tell you, it ain't easy operating with just $20. :)
Thank you, God - I really, really appreciate it.
Well, let's see, I'm up 629% on the day (ROFL), but still down 38% for the month, BUT still up 87% from the starting account balance - we're back in the black, boys and girls.

hehe keep at it jack!

Hi Jack,
First of all, wish you all the luck!

Also,
Is it possible to follow your trades? I mean do you have a signal system or EA?

Mus - I don't use any sort of EA. My basic intraday trading strategy is outlined in the articles I write for WinnersEdgeTrading.com
You can watch my trades here, but they seem to run a couple of minutes behind my 'real time' moves.

It's okay - sure, I would love to have made more money today, but at least I made SOME money, after spending the bulk of the day down about $20. So I'm happy to have a profit, to still be moving forward rather than backward.

And hey, at least give me credit for dumping my long Gbp/Usd just 4 or 5 pips from what looks like it might be the high of the day, since it's currently trading about 20 pips lower.

Not a bad day, picking up $25 doing top-picking counter trend trades. Should have made a bit more - while I called it right, I didn't manage my trades particularly well - should have waited for .9450 for a better entry on Aud/Usd, and ran my stop too tight on Gbp/Usd and had to re-sell it, cost me a couple of pips. Still, I just wanted to make sure I ended the day up over the $100 level, and I managed that quite nicely. One really shouldn't complain about a 20% gain on the day - especially doing counter trend trades against very strong trends. I have no idea where this stuff is headed - I just figured there had to be at least one day this week with some downside action, and Thursday was a better bet for that than Friday.

TheSundanceKid posted:
Whew! That's better - got a little breathing, a little margin money to work with. I gotta tell you, it ain't easy operating with just $20. :)
Thank you, God - I really, really appreciate it.
Well, let's see, I'm up 629% on the day (ROFL), but still down 38% for the month, BUT still up 87% from the starting account balance - we're back in the black, boys and girls.

Yay Jack you are back in the game!!! Good Work, you just might pull this thing off.

GO for it! We will observe from a safe distance....