TendencyForex's Beiträge

Razor EA in Handelssysteme May 02, 2022 at 12:44

Hi,Many thanks for your reaching out and nice to e-meet you.For more details, please visit:https://www.tendencyforex.cc/razor-ea/Thanks,All the best,Chris

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 04, 2022 at 12:01

Markets were off to a quiet start on Monday following the moves last Friday due to non-farm payrolls. China and Taiwan were on holiday today, which contributed to the calmness. USD was seen close to flat on the day, with G10 currencies keeping to a tight range. AUD led the (small) gains, sitting a tad in the green. Equities recovered a little post European close on Friday, although it traded flat in Asian trading as well. Oil traded flat as well. UST saw the curve up 2-3bps across all tenors, following moves on Friday. Elsewhere, Hong Kong Leader Carrie Lam stated that she would not seek a sec...

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 09:03

• The INR faced downward pressure from net portfolio outflows due to global risk aversion, and risks of further outflows remain if the Ukraine crisis dragson. Net foreign portfolio investor outflows from both equities and bonds in Q1 2022 was larger than net annual outflows seen during the global financialcrisis in 2008 and start of the pandemic in 2020.• The delay in India’s bond index inclusion and push back of India’s largest IPO launch mean passive inflows are unlikely to be as large as initially expectedat the start of 2022.• India’s high level of foreign ...

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 09:02

• USD/SGD appeared to have peaked mid-March, at around 1.3680 levels. Fundamentals appeared to have taken a dent in recent weeks, from potentialdownside risks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, SGD is now slightly buoyed as the next scheduled MAS meeting approaches.We forecastUSD/SGD moving lower from mid-1.35 levels in the coming months, as the SGD NEER policy band continues to move higher gradually.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 09:01

• USD/IDR has been relatively range-bound in Q1, hovering mostly around 14,250 to 14,400. This has been remarkable, given that there has beensignificant market volatility from US Fed interest rate uncertainty and Russia-Ukraine event risks. Much of this can be attributed to positive fundamentals.• Higher commodity prices partly caused USD/IDR to move lower since the end of February.• We forecast USD/IDR at 14,600 at the end of 2022, as the current account shifts from a small surplus in 2021 into a slight deficit in 2022

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 09:01

TWD has depreciated about 2.6% against US dollar since the onsetof Russia-Ukraine war on February 24th . Current value ofUSD/TWD has priced in much of risk aversion and aggressiveFed’s rate hikes. Our house view actually sees less aggressiveFed’s rate hikes as we believe that Fed eventually will need tobalance on the weaker US’s economic performance as well. Andthe current risk aversion sentiment could dissipate to some degreeas Russia and Ukraine eventually reach a deal, a resolution to theRussia-Ukraine conflict would also help push USD/TWD down alittle to 28.5 by Q2 end, i...

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 09:00

Worsening trade balance, portfolio outflow (e.g. negative net purchase of Korea stocks by foreign investors) , Covid-19 conditionand the strength of USD weighted on KRW against USD lately. KRW also suffered from recent heightened risk aversion.Look ahead, KRW likely remains weak , we expect a 1210 for USD/KRW by end of Q2 as the geopolitical risks persist. Weremain positive on KRW for medium term and see USD/KRW to reach 1180 by year end, as the resolution to the Ukraine warbecomes available and Covid-19 becomes better contained.KRW was the second least performing currency in the EM Asia for t...

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 09:00

Aggregate balance has declined since mid-September last year, which was due to the issuance of additional Exchange FundBills (EFBs) by HKMA. The decline prevented HKD interest rates from staying too low. In fact, both USD Libor and HKD Hiborhas risen since mid-January this year. However, USD Libor yield increased more than HKD Hibor, the yields spread betweenUSD and HKD widened.We expect that the yield spread between USD and HKD will continue to rise further like what happened in previous US’s ratehiking cycles, which will push USD/HKD to 7.84 by the end of this year.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 08:59

No longer does the share of stablecoins in total crypto market cap lookexcessive and as a result we believe that any further upside for cryptomarkets from here would likely be more limited.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 08:59

Our analysis suggests that the 90bp rise in the Global Agg bond indexyield YTD more than compensates for the expected $1.9tr deteriorationin the balance between global bond demand and supply for 2022.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 08:59

We thus believe this quarter’s rotation away from bond funds intoequity funds will subside into the coming quarters implying less bondfund selling and less equity fund buying in Q2 and beyond.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58

Historical experience suggests that severe bond fund outflows do notlast more than one quarter outside crisis periods.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58

In other words, investors globally appear to be currently veryunderweight bonds both outright and vs. equities.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58

The mirror image of this is a very high equity-bond equity position gap,which currently exceeds the previous post Lehman period high of 2018and is approaching the previous cycle highs of 2006-2007.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58

Our estimated allocation to bonds by investors globally stands at only18% currently, the lowest level since 2008. 14 years of previous bondoverweights have been already erased and investors’ positioning hastransitioned to the pre Lehman crisis norms.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 01, 2022 at 09:14

USD sees March payrolls Friday at 13:30 BST . Our economists expect overall payrolls to rise by 490k and private payrolls to rise by 500k. They expect a somewhat modest increase of 0.3%MoM in average hourly earnings in March, with some of the factors that weighed on February AHE potentially still affecting wages. The unemployment rate should fall to 3.7% in March. US ISM Manufacturing follows at 15:00 BST and is expected to rise to 58.9 in March from 58.6 in February.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 01, 2022 at 09:12

Treasuries yields are higher by 4-5bps with a surprisingly active pre-NFP session. Our trader saw real money selling in the belly and intermediates during initial weakness, though this later flipped into better buying in 10y point which helped stem the weakness. We note small block buyer of 5y May 113.75 puts with 8k changing hands. Some of the initial selling may be from those hoping to play the widely expected month-end rebalancing bid for bonds, which never really emerged.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 01, 2022 at 09:12

EUR holds little changed on the day with markets well-prepared for another significant upside beat to today’s inflation prints, as many of the components are now known. Our eTrading team highlights a bias from leverage names to sell EUR so far today. Looking ahead, it is important to draw a distinction between energy and non-energy inflation as this will be key for determining the ECB rate outlook.

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 01, 2022 at 09:00

USD is firmer as yields Treasury yields tilt higher. We don’t read too much into the price action as interbank flows are running 20% below average as the looming US payroll print limits risk taking. We note that the level of skittishness and high implied vols can be observed in rates markets with 1d10y breakevens pricing in a move of ~8.5bps for the day

Razor EA in Handelssysteme Apr 01, 2022 at 08:59

Comments from Treasury Secretary Stephen Kennedy, who also sits on the RBA board, caught some focus and also appeared to pressure short-end rates higher. He said at a Senate hearing that with job vacancies at record levels it was possible that wage and inflation pressures could flow through faster than expected, meaning there was a coming opportunity to normalize monetary policy, reports WSJ. He added the balance of risks to the government's inflation outlook were to the upside.

EURUSD	1.08711	GBPUSD	1.26734	AUDUSD	0.66775
USDJPY	155.329	USDCAD	1.3612	USDCHF	0.90471

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