cateful's Beiträge - Seite 3

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Mar 06, 2010 at 15:35

As I said above, I am slowing things down a bit for the sake of managing the fund. Everything I do on this prop account is now mirrored to the fund account so I am taking less and less trades/risks as it goes. March is a losing month so far but a 3% loss is something I can live by. Let's what will happen.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Feb 23, 2010 at 14:02

That was a major disaster lol. After I opened the trade, it went as high as 1.3690ish before it fell back HARD. For a minute I thought I was Jesus. But the market had to remind me to be humble. That was fun. Now I'm going to make it back with lower risk limit.

Can the real traders please stand up in Erfahrene Trader Feb 23, 2010 at 09:14

LOL.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Feb 23, 2010 at 08:12

UPDATE: I have gone long euro dollar with a VERY small position at an average price of 1.3640-50. This is a rather short term trade but I see it with the prospective to grow into a big macro trade if things turn out to be what I think it would be.Below is what I wrote a few hours earlier,Everything is moving sideways for the last 48 hours. No trade so far but I think people are waiting on something. Maybe the Greek debt issuance. Something is going to give very soon. Euro has been battered to the ground and I think people are so negative on Greece right now that they start calling other perfec...

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Feb 19, 2010 at 18:04

I don't know. The thought of automating it never crosses my mind. I don't think it can be done because a lot of position management are discretionary, too.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Feb 19, 2010 at 17:40

Thanks for the nice words!I have a pre-determined stop loss for each campaign, this gives me flexibility as to when to close an individual trade. I don't actually put the stop orders in. But I make sure they're taken care of. I do take losses. I love taking small losses but I absolutely hate big losses. I won't allow it. 100 pips in a volatile pair like EURUSD is nothing, it is one day's range. It is a risk I can take. 500 pips would not be acceptable. That being said, I'd like to point out that because my starting position is generally minuscular, a few hundred pip in the ...

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Feb 11, 2010 at 16:31

Not much to update. Still holding the EURGBP short position, added to it twice on the reaction up. Timing was not perfect but now that the Greece bailout plan has fallen apart I think we will see the down move resuming soon. I was asked why I didn't close the trade on the reaction, and why I keep the position when it was losing money on the 200+ pip reaction. The answer is simple. Europe is still a mess compared to UK. The PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) have serious fiscal problems and they have no way to solve it. The euro rallied when the news of a bailout is being put together by...

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 31, 2010 at 09:09

That is a valid point. But when a fund performance is calculated, the accountant uses the NAV not the balance. The NAV is your cash balance plus the p/l on your open positions. Unrealized growth is part of NAV, so is unrealized loss. This method is more accurate from an accounting point of view because it measures the current value of the fund by including the mark-to-market value of your open positions.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 31, 2010 at 03:43

It's Jan 31st and looks like I'm going to have a flat month:(Well, the way the growth is calculated on myfxbook is frustrating, it takes account only closed positions but ignore open positions. I have not closed out my short EURGBP position which if I do close it should show a nice monthly growth, but I am letting it run for the moment. I wonder if there is any way around this issue. The accountant me wants to close out the position so I can have another winning streak month but the trader me wants to hang on to the position, let the winner run, so the old timers say.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 29, 2010 at 05:15

A possible cashing-in scenario:UK devalues the pound due to its budget deficit and economy. I don't see this happening in the immediate future but there might come a time when they would start considering this. When this happens I will get out. If ECB unexpected hike rates, I will get out. If Greece problem is solved, I can't say I will get out ex ante but I will certainly consider it.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 28, 2010 at 09:08

EURGBP trade is still on, I waited a week for that reaction upwards to 8800 only end up missing it since the reaction high was 5 pips from 8800. Anyway I still managed to add a small position around 8700ish. This happens a lot. Don't like it but have to live with it. Now that the pair is below 8700 I am making a very nice return on this compaign. Will update when I close it.

214065 in Handelssysteme Jan 20, 2010 at 20:11

well, i guess this is what happens when you entrust hard earned cash to a robot - they don't know what to do with your money:D

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 19, 2010 at 17:02

No, I'm always long volatility but not directly through a straddle. A straddle is price-directionless, whereas mine is. I was betting on the price to go down, remember? Never, never short volatility. And no, it's not after a news event. A news event is a news event is a news event. It's just news. It comes out either support my view or against. I can't flip a position just based on one news event. Essentially I am betting on dislocations, sentiment changes, and other macro themes available at the time of decision. To put it simply, I'm just betting on "opportunities&qu...

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 19, 2010 at 10:57

Because that's what it does usually when it reacts.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 19, 2010 at 09:45

Well EURGBP turns out to be an OK start. I wanted to have a more modest starting position before it had broken 8850 but it broke so fast and so soon I only managed to accumate 3/5 of what I wanted. Bad execution on my part. Also the decline seems to be more severe than I thought. I expected reactions of 100 pips maximum but so far there has been only 50-pip reactions. Well anyway I'm running a lighter position than I would like to but a profit trade is a profit trade, right?

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 14, 2010 at 18:10

Also another trade I am looking at is the EURAUD cross which is not as liquid as the european crosses but still an active pair. Technically it is at a strategic price between 1.55 and 56. This is a multi-year low. It touched this price on numerous occasions in 1997, 2004, 2005, and 2007. If this level is breached it will be at a 10-year low. Right now the information I have on hand suggests there is a good possibility this might happen. However I am not quite confident about this at the moment. Will need new information.

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 14, 2010 at 18:01

The ECB rate decision and conference went as I expected earlier today. Mr. Trichet and his bandits made the following pointsThis is basically what they said last time with an added flavor on the Greek factor. He later mentioned Greece will not receive "special treatment" in the Q&A session. In plain English, this says ECB is not going to start monetary tightening anytime soon. In contrast to the ECB, BOE's Asset Purchase Program is going to end next month according to their schedule book. So overall I think this is a re-affirming event for my short campaign on the euro pound ...

JZ Prop Account in Handelssysteme Jan 13, 2010 at 09:06

See original post here: http://www.myfxbook.com/community/general/open-trades-locked/11677,1#?pt=2&p=3&o=11677I think a breakout is going to happen very soon now. My bias is to the downside. Therefore I consider any price above 8850 a good price. I have an initial ticket booked at 8970+, I am looking to add a second one on reactions should the cross move lower. My aim is to have a modest position with good starting price above 8850 while simultaneously manage my risk exposure to the minimum before the real move starts. If it breaks up the previous high (which I hope will not happen lol...

If the open trades are locked... in Allgemein Jan 04, 2010 at 20:40

I'll try to explain a live example. Right now I'm starting to get interested in the euro pound cross. It has been trapped in a 300 pip range for the past three months. It was in a 700 pip range for 4 years before it broke loose in 2007. There will be a rate decision later this week and there is very little chance that they would raise rates. Right now I'm clueless as where it's going like everybody else but if you stick a gun to my head I would probably say it is going to break down rather than up. But most likely it will do nothing and sit there just like it did in 2003-2007. ...

If the open trades are locked... in Allgemein Jan 04, 2010 at 19:50

Just as John Maynard Keynes once said, "in the long run we're all dead".I don't believe a "system" could ever beat the market in the long run. It's pointless to define the success of a system by its longevity. Market is dynamic, what worked in 1998 may not work in 2010, what will work in 2010 probably had lost money from 2005 to 2009. And this not only applies to automatic systems. Even a discretionary manual approach is prone to the risk. Considering this, the sterling lost value when BOE jacked up rates in 1992 in order the maintain the ERM, GBP went down and ...

Alle Kotierungen
AUDUSD	0.6523	USDCHF	0.9119
EURJPY	167.624	EURCHF	0.97555
EURGBP	0.85353	GBPJPY	196.486
EURUSD	1.06977	GBPUSD	1.2531
USDJPY	156.785	USDCAD	1.36922

EURUSD	1.06977	GBPUSD	1.2531
USDJPY	156.785	USDCAD	1.36922

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