psaTrading's Beiträge - Seite 28

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Oct 08, 2015 at 12:18

In recent sessions there has been an appreciation and overperformance on assets with higher risk. This pattern does not mean that the risks that hit the market during the months of August and September have disappeared. It was the perception of investors in relation to these issues that has changed. Perhaps now investors believe that the Chinese GDP growth will slow down (to about 6%) but not collapse. On the other hand, in relation to US interest rates, investors begin to discount that its growth will only occur in 2016, so it is no longer so much uncertainty. Therefore, in the short term, on...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Oct 07, 2015 at 16:14

The trade balance registered a deficit in August well above the estimated (48300 M.USD vs 42500 M.USD), while imports increased 2.60% and exports declined 2%. This fact limits the GDP growth in the 3rd quarter. In addition, the fall in exports, especially to emerging economies, may signal that American companies have suffered a fall in revenue in some areas of the globe. This is particularly relevant in the given moment as is approaching the earnings season.

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Oct 06, 2015 at 15:39

Asian markets closed with some gains, which could perhaps have been more significant considering the rally held by the American indices. Today was signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement between the US, Japan and over 10 economies of the Asia-Pacific region, which aims to promote free trade between these countries. This agreement is very important not only for the duration of their negotiations (5 years) as it involves countries that account for about 40% of world GDP.

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Oct 05, 2015 at 14:40

The employment report was clearly disappointing. Not only job creation has undergone a sharp slowdown as well as wages have remained unchanged does not constitute an inflationary pressure. So in terms of monetary policy, this data further complicated the mission of the Fed and does not fit clearly the conditions for a rise in interest rates in December, increasing the uncertainty in relation to the timing of the first increase in rates directors in the United States. After an initial fall in response to labor market data, the markets staged a very strong recovery. The rally was led by sectors ...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Oct 02, 2015 at 16:34

Global economy is a mess this days. China and emerging market even the European market are slowing down and the U.S domestic market is the only market showing signs of strength.

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Oct 01, 2015 at 11:32

The recovery from yesterday and its continuation today, may not be sufficiently compelling to calm investors as uncertainties remain (situation of the world economy and the monetary policy of the Fed).

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 30, 2015 at 09:40

European markets have opened up, reflecting the good performance of the Asian markets and the stabilization of the price of raw materials during the session in that region, however this can be a technical reaction to accumulated losses in recent days. The initial rise should be led by the most penalized sectors in recent days, as the industrial, mining and automobile. The Chinese government halved the tax on small cars. This measure benefits more local brands than European automakers. Today will be the closing quarter, a period that is seasonally favorable to equity markets. To change investor...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 29, 2015 at 14:46

Investors continue to focus on the ramifications of the Volkswagen situation (in the US has been dubbed DieselGate), in the automotive sector and in the German economy. In the near future, the new CEO Matthias Muller, will have to address several points. The first is how to deal with the 11 million vehicles (which may possibly be more) that were sold and did not meet the standards of CO2 emissions. The second is related to various lawsuits which begin to be brought against the company. The third relates to the reaction of many governments, the first was the Swiss that banned the sale of the re...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 28, 2015 at 09:13

In the pre-opening, European shares traded with some losses. The reverse of the trend of Wall Street on Friday should dictate investor sentiment at this early stage. The technology sector and pharmacist should be more sensitive because of the US biotech sector weakness. In Madrid, investors will react to election results in Catalonia. This region accounts for about 20% of the Spanish GDP. With 7.5 million inhabitants (of 46.7 million), GDP per capita is the fourth of the country (after Madrid, the Basque Country and Navarra), the unemployment rate of 19.10% against the national average of 22.3...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 25, 2015 at 11:16

In the pre-opening, European shares traded with sharp gains. Contributing to this initial impulse were the words of Janet Yellen, the recovery of raw materials in the Asian session and some expectations that Volkswagen will present a new strategic plan that will draw the outline to solve the problems caused by the scandal of diesel engines. Despite this recovery the current environment continues to offer many challenges to investors, thus I'll keep a cautious stance.

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 24, 2015 at 13:46

US markets closed yesterday without major fluctuations. This behavior turns out to be disappointing in light of recent losses suffered by the stock market. In fact, contrary to what occurred in Europe, the US indices were unable to rebound, In recent years, the “buying the dips” strategy (buy the corrections of the market) had been a very popular (and profitable) strategy among investors, whether institutional or private. However, in recent weeks there have been few followers, signaling that in August, the strong and sharp falls suffered and the volatility observed, marked investor...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 23, 2015 at 09:08

The macroeconomic data from China justified the fears of investors about the Chinese and global economy. Despite this data, the prices of the main raw materials remained stable, so it can attend a less selling pressure on the mining and petroleum sectors, much penalized in recent sessions. The situation of the Volkswagen came additionally to stress the panorama of the automotive sector. After the strong recovery of the past two years, which ended a row of six years of contraction, the outlook for the automotive industry became less optimistic with declining sales in emerging markets (especiall...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 22, 2015 at 14:30

The evolution of the Chinese economy and its impact on emerging markets as well as the perception of the market against the US monetary policy will be the most important variables. In this context, DAX is a single case. Although this index is also influenced by the external environment, some specific issues have conditioned the German market. The first is related to the uncertainty about the proceedings and costs that RWE and E.On have to dismantle its nuclear facilities after the law passed by the German government, which strongly penalized their actions. On the other hand, yesterday announce...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 21, 2015 at 11:06

In the pre-opening, European shares traded with modest losses. Questions regarding the monetary policy of the Fed and the global economic situation will shape investor sentiment in the near future. In the medium term, the outlook for equity markets looks a bit threatening to the extent that uncertainties should not dissipate shortly. It is not excluded the occurrence of recoveries in prices (as a reaction to recent losses) but the underlying trend deserves caution. An uncertainty that was feared by investors would be a tie in the Greek elections, which did not materialize, and the Greek bonds ...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 18, 2015 at 10:26

In the pre-opening, European markets traded lower, albeit with very small volumes, a day after it was known the decision of the US Federal Reserve. In Asia, the market response was not uniform, having initially been observed a moderately positive response, but later stood the renewed fears about the health of the global economy, particularly the Chinese economy. Following this decision the Euro appreciated against the dollar which could penalize the stocks of the main European exporting companies, including car manufacturers and luxury goods. During the session today (and probably in the comin...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 17, 2015 at 17:39

Boosting US markets was the appreciation of oil (+ 5.70%) and possibly some expectation that the Fed will keep rates unchanged today. The commodities also rose in general, with an highlight to the appreciation of oil. This oil boost is explained by last week announce regarding the decrease of 2.1 million barrels. A large part of this decline (1.9 million barrels) was registered in Cushing (Oklahoma) which is a storage point for most of the oil generated in the US. The rise in oil boosted not only its sector as well as industrial, which has registered a high correlation with the evolution of cr...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 16, 2015 at 13:29

US markets closed with gains of more than 1% but the volume was much lower than in recent weeks. The increase was led by sectors that have been most penalized in previous sessions such as oil and other more cyclical sectors. The day was also marked by economic data. Retail sales grew 0.20% in August, less than 0.30% estimated. However, this weakness is merely apparent, since the smaller increase than expected was mainly due to the price drop of fuel, an effect that is favorable to consumers that may materialize in the coming months. In addition, when excluding the more volatile items, retail s...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 15, 2015 at 13:52

Most investors should maintain a prudent and expectant posture with the approach of the Fed meeting. This behavior should induce volatility to levels closer to their historical average after the high peaks observed in August. The weakness of Asian markets may weigh on some sectors such as oil and mining. The weakness shown by the Chinese economy continued to dictate the negative trend in the price of oil and other raw materials during the Asian session. This less favorable environment should ease the positive impact of a 12% rise in car sales in Europe during the month of August. This was the ...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 14, 2015 at 10:11

In the pre-opening, European shares traded with modest variations. The first hours of trading should be dominated by the alarming signs from China. Investors from the old continent shall observe its impact on the sectors most exposed to the Chinese economy (mining, automotive, industrial, etc.) and will monitor its reflection in the price of raw materials and the behavior of other emerging markets. After absorbing the reaction to economic data in China, markets will be marked by expectations of investors regarding the Fed’s meeting, on Wednesday and Thursday. The banking sector can be hi...

Trading Journal in Neue Trader Sep 11, 2015 at 11:15

Yesterday the already fragile emerging markets suffered a small storm with the reduction of Brazil’s rating by Standard & Poor’s. Moody’s, which reduced the rating of Brazil a month ago, assigns a rating to Brazil to a junk level, while Fitch put the country’s rating just two levels above that category. If any more of these agencies reduces the rating of Brazil to junk, many foreign institutional investors (such as the American pension funds) may be forced to sell Brazilian debt because their statutes prohibit them from holding bonds with a speculative rating. F...

EURUSD	1.13263	GBPUSD	1.32813	AUDUSD	0.64788
USDJPY	144.121	USDCAD	1.38114	USDCHF	0.82535

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