-11122024742.png)
-11122024742.png)
US CPI release: a bullish chance for the dollar
US CPI release: a bullish chance for the dollar
On Tuesday, US consumer inflation data for July will be released, which will largely determine the fate of the key rate cut in September.
The overall consumer price index in the US accelerated its annual growth from 2.3% to 2.7% in June, and analysts expect it to accelerate to 2.8%. Excluding food and energy prices, it is anticipated to accelerate to 3.0% y/y. In both cases, this will be the highest rate since February.
Since the beginning of the year, inflation reports have been below expectations, which could potentially negatively affect the dollar if this trend continues.
But it is also worth considering Powell's warning at the end of July that the tariff-induced surge in prices has only just begun to gain momentum. An acceleration above expectations could bring back trading on the markets based on expectations of a rate cut in September.
Interest rate futures are pricing in an 86% chance of easing in September (up from over 90% a week ago). Still, an acceleration in headline CPI to 3% could well reduce that chance to 50%, providing a foundation for a dollar recovery.
By the FxPro Analyst Team
ATFX Market Outlook 14th August 2025
Russell 2000 catches up with the giants
USD/JPY Gains Ground as Market Favouring Risk Appetite
Nasdaq100 heads for 30,000, Nikkei225 for 50,000
Dollar slips as CPI data increase September Fed cut bets
EBC Markets Briefing | A50 hits 2025 peak, led by chip stocks
BTC cannot keep up with altcoins
