Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account?
forex_trader_33781
Membre depuis Apr 11, 2011
posts 202
Jan 30, 2013 at 21:14
(édité Jan 30, 2013 at 21:20)
Financialarts posted:
@ Splexin ,
I've worked on an ea which 'bended' probability into a 'wannabe' linear net gain equity curve, Check the results at
https://championship.mql5.com/2012/en/users/Financialarts
It uses channel outbreak and probability to get net gain result.
running a version of this one on a real mt4 account atm.
Looks pretty good. I had forgotten to mention linear regression as another plausible method.
I'm currently testing an EA which was derived from optimization done in MATLAB using simple RSI (believe it or not) and price MA entry (timed to trade during certain hours) and it has annual Sharpe of about 1.90 (validation Sharpe of 3.12 on out-of-sample). I use Oanda tick data for my research. I then adjust risk according to a modified VaR formula and use very small positions (much like your EA) which allows me to have a Risk of Ruin of basically zero. I think position sizing is where a lot of traders mess up, because they are eager to see big gains in short time. So far, no losing trades. It's amazing because one current trade came close to being stopping out and I almost manually closed it, but because of volatility the pair soon moved back into favor and is almost in profit again. I am very new to MATLAB but it is extremely powerful and very useful for millisecond calculations and can optimize thousands of parameters in just minutes or hours. Furthermore it is easier to detect and avoid biases that can creep in when using Metatrader tester.
Membre depuis May 04, 2012
posts 1608
Feb 01, 2013 at 00:10
Quick100 posted:
between 5-10% is possible, yes, do it now since May 2012 for an client
Do you have a verified MyFxBook link? Anyway, the questions remains the same:
Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit over the past 2 YEARS(!) and with less than -25% max. DD...?
So far: nobody.... I guess, it tells a lot about the chances of 'Average Joe Trader' finding a 'gem' here or making a decent living by trading Forex on his own.
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
forex_trader_8139
Membre depuis Mar 04, 2010
posts 423
Feb 01, 2013 at 06:02
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 06:04)
FxMasterGuru posted:Quick100 posted:
between 5-10% is possible, yes, do it now since May 2012 for an client
Do you have a verified MyFxBook link? Anyway, the questions remains the same:
Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit over the past 2 YEARS(!) and with less than -25% max. DD...?
So far: nobody.... I guess, it tells a lot about the chances of 'Average Joe Trader' finding a 'gem' here or making a decent living by trading Forex on his own.
Hi FX Master,
A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !
Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?
Take a look at the link:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .
Regards,
SIM
forex_trader_33781
Membre depuis Apr 11, 2011
posts 202
Feb 01, 2013 at 06:18
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 06:22)
pip2cash posted:Your average monthly profit in 2012 was 3.47% and your average monthly profit in 2011 was 5.89%. So your average monthly profit for the past 2 years is 4.68%.
Hi FX Master,
A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !
Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?
Take a look at the link:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .
Regards,
SIM
Impressive yes, but still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test 😉
Also, I could make one dollar a month and say I was profitable every month. Does this mean I am in the 0.64% or 0.21%??
forex_trader_8139
Membre depuis Mar 04, 2010
posts 423
Feb 01, 2013 at 06:25
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 06:40)
Splexin posted:pip2cash posted:Your average monthly profit in 2012 was 3.47% and your average monthly profit in 2011 was 5.89%. So your average monthly profit for the past 2 years is 4.68%.
Hi FX Master,
A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !
Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?
Take a look at the link:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .
Regards,
SIM
Impressive yes, but still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test 😉
Hi,
You are right about the profit thing. It is 4.68% for past 2 years, but the equity DD is only about 16%.
If let say i take slightly higher risk to the equity DD to 20%, do you think is it possible to increase the past 2 years profit from 4.68 to 5.01%? I don't know, maybe not possible. But it does not matter, forget about it.
Anyway, it still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test.
Regards,
SIM
forex_trader_8139
Membre depuis Mar 04, 2010
posts 423
Feb 01, 2013 at 06:49
Splexin posted:pip2cash posted:Your average monthly profit in 2012 was 3.47% and your average monthly profit in 2011 was 5.89%. So your average monthly profit for the past 2 years is 4.68%.
Hi FX Master,
A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !
Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?
Take a look at the link:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .
Regards,
SIM
Impressive yes, but still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test 😉
Also, I could make one dollar a month and say I was profitable every month. Does this mean I am in the 0.64% or 0.21%??
If let say you are making $1 a month using a monthly start up account balance of $20 for the past 2 years, with equity DD of less than $5, i think you are meeting the term. Can FX Master please confirm?
Thanks.
Membre depuis May 04, 2012
posts 1608
Feb 01, 2013 at 11:14
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 11:29)
Congratulations, SIM!
My revised question was: 'Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD...?'
SIM's posted MyFxBook link shows: Average profit: 5.05% with a max. DD of -24.01% over the past 3 years, which fulfills the above criteria. It reassuring to see that there is at least ONE such strategy on MyFxBook. Thanks SIM for sharing the link!
On the other hand the posted strategy uses Martingale money management and apparently very well, as the account has not blown up for practically 3 years, so it is impressive also in this regards.
But here comes another important question: Would you invest 1 million USD in a Martingale-style strategy to make 600k USD profit yearly (i.e. 50k USD per month) which would provide a comfortable living anywhere in the world...???
I guess most traders - at least in their right mind - would not. Even SIM does not risk more than 25k USD with this strategy and very WISELY. He has already withdrawn almost 28k USD profit, so - just in case - the Martingale strategy blows up the account, he can still walk away with about 2500 USD profit for the past 3 years and start again.
So I need to revise my question again: Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD using a non-Martingale strategy...?
My revised question was: 'Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD...?'
SIM's posted MyFxBook link shows: Average profit: 5.05% with a max. DD of -24.01% over the past 3 years, which fulfills the above criteria. It reassuring to see that there is at least ONE such strategy on MyFxBook. Thanks SIM for sharing the link!
On the other hand the posted strategy uses Martingale money management and apparently very well, as the account has not blown up for practically 3 years, so it is impressive also in this regards.
But here comes another important question: Would you invest 1 million USD in a Martingale-style strategy to make 600k USD profit yearly (i.e. 50k USD per month) which would provide a comfortable living anywhere in the world...???
I guess most traders - at least in their right mind - would not. Even SIM does not risk more than 25k USD with this strategy and very WISELY. He has already withdrawn almost 28k USD profit, so - just in case - the Martingale strategy blows up the account, he can still walk away with about 2500 USD profit for the past 3 years and start again.
So I need to revise my question again: Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD using a non-Martingale strategy...?
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Membre depuis May 30, 2012
posts 134
Feb 01, 2013 at 11:44
Case closed? :)
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
forex_trader_8139
Membre depuis Mar 04, 2010
posts 423
Feb 01, 2013 at 12:02
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 12:07)
Hi FX Master,
Honestly, I am nobody in Forex world or at MyFxBook if compare to so many traders here so called themselves professional traders. After reading this discussion, at first i do not want to show my link. But then when I see Splexin said it is almost impossible to get 24 months of consecutive winning month, then only I want to show him, although the probability is less than 1% but it does not mean impossible or nobody did that.
I can tell you there are at least 5 more accounts(I know them) in myfxbook have met your requirements, just that these people they would like to stay low profile, making money trading Forex silently instead of providing Forex related services.
Your question about will I ever invest 1 million into my strategy, I will tell you yes I will, that is one of my financial goal. The reason is not about my strategy, it is because i trust myself on using my trading methodology. A same trading strategy when used by different traders on same broker will give totally different result, this is not because of the trading strategy, it is because the trader. So the key is the trader, nothing to do with trading strategies.
The withdraw of $28k was done by my PAMM investors, it is a PAMM account. I personally has more than $100k invested in my current strategy, started from $5k and from time to time I deposit my saving into it monthly or bi-monthly since 2007/8.
The concept of withdrawing profit, just in case the account being wiped out, then the trader can start again a new account with those profit. I myself never have this kind of concept. If i think my strategy might blow my account at a point of time in the future, then I will stop using this strategy immediately, I will never spend even 1 more min on using this kind of strategy because it is waiting my time. If i continue using this kind of strategy, after few years I might need to restart all over again. So I have wasted my time and my financial status never improve instead fall back to 3 years ago.
Don't worry guys, keep going with what you are doing. I am just passing by and accidentally dropped my 1 or 2 cents worth of opinions, maybe worth nothing at all.
Regards,
SIM
Honestly, I am nobody in Forex world or at MyFxBook if compare to so many traders here so called themselves professional traders. After reading this discussion, at first i do not want to show my link. But then when I see Splexin said it is almost impossible to get 24 months of consecutive winning month, then only I want to show him, although the probability is less than 1% but it does not mean impossible or nobody did that.
I can tell you there are at least 5 more accounts(I know them) in myfxbook have met your requirements, just that these people they would like to stay low profile, making money trading Forex silently instead of providing Forex related services.
Your question about will I ever invest 1 million into my strategy, I will tell you yes I will, that is one of my financial goal. The reason is not about my strategy, it is because i trust myself on using my trading methodology. A same trading strategy when used by different traders on same broker will give totally different result, this is not because of the trading strategy, it is because the trader. So the key is the trader, nothing to do with trading strategies.
The withdraw of $28k was done by my PAMM investors, it is a PAMM account. I personally has more than $100k invested in my current strategy, started from $5k and from time to time I deposit my saving into it monthly or bi-monthly since 2007/8.
The concept of withdrawing profit, just in case the account being wiped out, then the trader can start again a new account with those profit. I myself never have this kind of concept. If i think my strategy might blow my account at a point of time in the future, then I will stop using this strategy immediately, I will never spend even 1 more min on using this kind of strategy because it is waiting my time. If i continue using this kind of strategy, after few years I might need to restart all over again. So I have wasted my time and my financial status never improve instead fall back to 3 years ago.
Don't worry guys, keep going with what you are doing. I am just passing by and accidentally dropped my 1 or 2 cents worth of opinions, maybe worth nothing at all.
Regards,
SIM
forex_trader_8139
Membre depuis Mar 04, 2010
posts 423
Feb 01, 2013 at 12:31
Hi Splexin,
Please don't get me wrong, I don't mean to prove you or Arcsine law wrong. You are right on the probability.
I also do not mean to offend any of the traders and Forex services providers either at myfxbook or would wide. You guys are great and contributing a lot by researching and providing more opportunities to Forex world.
Please continue this discussion with the revised questions by Fx Master Guru: Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD using a non-Martingale strategy...?
Regards,
SIM
Please don't get me wrong, I don't mean to prove you or Arcsine law wrong. You are right on the probability.
I also do not mean to offend any of the traders and Forex services providers either at myfxbook or would wide. You guys are great and contributing a lot by researching and providing more opportunities to Forex world.
Please continue this discussion with the revised questions by Fx Master Guru: Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD using a non-Martingale strategy...?
Regards,
SIM
Membre depuis May 04, 2012
posts 1608
Feb 01, 2013 at 13:05
Thanks for the feedback, SIM. You are one of the very few traders who can make consistent profits on Forex, probably 5-6k USD per month plus the commissions from your investors.
According to the statistics only 5% of such traders can do that. Congratulations to you for finding your way to this unique club, whatever the nature of the strategy you use (even if Martingale)!
Best regards,
FMG
According to the statistics only 5% of such traders can do that. Congratulations to you for finding your way to this unique club, whatever the nature of the strategy you use (even if Martingale)!
Best regards,
FMG
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Membre depuis May 04, 2012
posts 1608
Feb 01, 2013 at 13:22
Just as an illustration: with approx 38k USD balance these are the open positions of SIM's Martingale EA:
Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
01.24.2013 10:15 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3295 1.3535 1.3798 -43.68 -364.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 10:30 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3329 1.3535 1.3832 -39.60 -330.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 17:30 EURUSD Sell 0.21 1.336 1.3535 1.3863 -62.79 -299.00 -0.63
01.25.2013 09:15 EURUSD Sell 0.37 1.3413 1.3535 1.3916 -91.02 -246.00 -0.97
01.25.2013 12:15 EURUSD Sell 0.65 1.3447 1.3535 1.3951 -137.80 -212.00 -1.68
01.29.2013 16:45 EURUSD Sell 1.15 1.348 1.3535 1.3984 -205.85 -179.00 -2.14
01.30.2013 09:30 EURUSD Sell 2.03 1.3509 1.3535 1.4014 -304.50 -150.00 -3.0 -
01.30.2013 12:45 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3538 1.3535 1.4042 -759.88 -121.00 -9.29
02.01.2013 02:00 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3608 1.3535 1.4113 -320.28 -51.00 0.0
In case someone decided to trade this strategy with a 1 million USD account, the last two sell positions would have been entered with 165 lots, EACH. Statistically it will work out for SIM, but what if the EURUSD decides to continue trending even higher? Well, it depends on a well-planned exit strategy and steel nerves.
Apparently one of the investors did not have the steel nerves to tough it through and bailed out in October of 2011 with a 55% loss: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/1st-showcase-account/20283
Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
01.24.2013 10:15 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3295 1.3535 1.3798 -43.68 -364.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 10:30 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3329 1.3535 1.3832 -39.60 -330.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 17:30 EURUSD Sell 0.21 1.336 1.3535 1.3863 -62.79 -299.00 -0.63
01.25.2013 09:15 EURUSD Sell 0.37 1.3413 1.3535 1.3916 -91.02 -246.00 -0.97
01.25.2013 12:15 EURUSD Sell 0.65 1.3447 1.3535 1.3951 -137.80 -212.00 -1.68
01.29.2013 16:45 EURUSD Sell 1.15 1.348 1.3535 1.3984 -205.85 -179.00 -2.14
01.30.2013 09:30 EURUSD Sell 2.03 1.3509 1.3535 1.4014 -304.50 -150.00 -3.0 -
01.30.2013 12:45 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3538 1.3535 1.4042 -759.88 -121.00 -9.29
02.01.2013 02:00 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3608 1.3535 1.4113 -320.28 -51.00 0.0
In case someone decided to trade this strategy with a 1 million USD account, the last two sell positions would have been entered with 165 lots, EACH. Statistically it will work out for SIM, but what if the EURUSD decides to continue trending even higher? Well, it depends on a well-planned exit strategy and steel nerves.
Apparently one of the investors did not have the steel nerves to tough it through and bailed out in October of 2011 with a 55% loss: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/1st-showcase-account/20283
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Membre depuis May 30, 2012
posts 134
Feb 01, 2013 at 13:24
FxMasterGuru posted:
Just as an illustration: with approx 38k USD balance these are the open positions of SIM's Martingale EA:
Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
01.24.2013 10:15 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3295 1.3535 1.3798 -43.68 -364.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 10:30 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3329 1.3535 1.3832 -39.60 -330.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 17:30 EURUSD Sell 0.21 1.336 1.3535 1.3863 -62.79 -299.00 -0.63
01.25.2013 09:15 EURUSD Sell 0.37 1.3413 1.3535 1.3916 -91.02 -246.00 -0.97
01.25.2013 12:15 EURUSD Sell 0.65 1.3447 1.3535 1.3951 -137.80 -212.00 -1.68
01.29.2013 16:45 EURUSD Sell 1.15 1.348 1.3535 1.3984 -205.85 -179.00 -2.14
01.30.2013 09:30 EURUSD Sell 2.03 1.3509 1.3535 1.4014 -304.50 -150.00 -3.0 -
01.30.2013 12:45 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3538 1.3535 1.4042 -759.88 -121.00 -9.29
02.01.2013 02:00 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3608 1.3535 1.4113 -320.28 -51.00 0.0
In case someone decided to trade this strategy with a 1 million USD account, the last two sell positions would have been entered with 165 lots, EACH. Statistically it will work out for SIM, but what if the EURUSD decides to continue trending even higher? Well, it depends on a well-planned exit strategy and steel nerves.
Apparently one of the investors did not have the steel nerves to tough it through and bailed out in October of 2011 with a 55% loss: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/1st-showcase-account/20283
Why only bet on sell?
my 'martingale' goes where the market goes
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
forex_trader_8139
Membre depuis Mar 04, 2010
posts 423
Feb 01, 2013 at 13:57
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 14:00)
Financialarts posted:FxMasterGuru posted:
Just as an illustration: with approx 38k USD balance these are the open positions of SIM's Martingale EA:
Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
01.24.2013 10:15 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3295 1.3535 1.3798 -43.68 -364.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 10:30 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3329 1.3535 1.3832 -39.60 -330.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 17:30 EURUSD Sell 0.21 1.336 1.3535 1.3863 -62.79 -299.00 -0.63
01.25.2013 09:15 EURUSD Sell 0.37 1.3413 1.3535 1.3916 -91.02 -246.00 -0.97
01.25.2013 12:15 EURUSD Sell 0.65 1.3447 1.3535 1.3951 -137.80 -212.00 -1.68
01.29.2013 16:45 EURUSD Sell 1.15 1.348 1.3535 1.3984 -205.85 -179.00 -2.14
01.30.2013 09:30 EURUSD Sell 2.03 1.3509 1.3535 1.4014 -304.50 -150.00 -3.0 -
01.30.2013 12:45 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3538 1.3535 1.4042 -759.88 -121.00 -9.29
02.01.2013 02:00 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3608 1.3535 1.4113 -320.28 -51.00 0.0
In case someone decided to trade this strategy with a 1 million USD account, the last two sell positions would have been entered with 165 lots, EACH. Statistically it will work out for SIM, but what if the EURUSD decides to continue trending even higher? Well, it depends on a well-planned exit strategy and steel nerves.
Apparently one of the investors did not have the steel nerves to tough it through and bailed out in October of 2011 with a 55% loss: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/1st-showcase-account/20283
Why only bet on sell?
my 'martingale' goes where the market goes
I am not sure, maybe my 'martingale' not as smart as your 'martingale'. Let it be, at least it is smarter than me.
Membre depuis May 30, 2012
posts 134
Feb 01, 2013 at 14:05
@ SIM (pip2cash)
'Let it be, at least it is smarter than me.'
Geniusly said.
I'm not saying that your system is bad,
just wondered why it only usses sells (or buys) :)
maybe because ur using a USA broker?
'Let it be, at least it is smarter than me.'
Geniusly said.
I'm not saying that your system is bad,
just wondered why it only usses sells (or buys) :)
maybe because ur using a USA broker?
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
forex_trader_33781
Membre depuis Apr 11, 2011
posts 202
Feb 01, 2013 at 18:29
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 18:31)
No worries SIM, I know I am right on probability. But who says I have to make $1 a month with $20 balance to be in the category of 0.64%....12 months without a losing month? Why does my balance matter? (obviously for FX Guru's test but here I'm talking about the probabilities). That's why I added that to my post.
I do not think the probability is 12 months no NET loss I think it means 12 months without ANY loss. I may have phrased it wrong the first time, or maybe I'm wrong about that....I personally didn't come up with this, but someone familiar with arcsine law was discussing optimal time to quit a trading firm was 11 months of winning. Then you can sign on to another firm with big bonus instead of getting fired after a losing month 😁
Anyway, let's do the math:
How many real accounts you think are on MyFXBook? Probably 2,000?
2,000 x 0.21% = 4.2
2,000 x 0.64% = 128
......and so on.
Sounds pretty realistic. Have you seen more than that many accounts here do so well? We know that only about 50% are ever profitable, so it shouldn't be such a stretch that only so few are always profitable.
Although the probabilities sound extreme, if you really think about not so much. And don't forget, with randomness there never is an exact number. So there could be 4 or 6, and 128 or 135 etc etc 😄
P.S. Martingale will always eventually fail. It might be 10 years from now, but eventually it blows up. I'm not sure why anybody bothers to pursue it, because laws of mathematics rule. It's good that you take profits out as you go.
I do not think the probability is 12 months no NET loss I think it means 12 months without ANY loss. I may have phrased it wrong the first time, or maybe I'm wrong about that....I personally didn't come up with this, but someone familiar with arcsine law was discussing optimal time to quit a trading firm was 11 months of winning. Then you can sign on to another firm with big bonus instead of getting fired after a losing month 😁
Anyway, let's do the math:
How many real accounts you think are on MyFXBook? Probably 2,000?
2,000 x 0.21% = 4.2
2,000 x 0.64% = 128
......and so on.
Sounds pretty realistic. Have you seen more than that many accounts here do so well? We know that only about 50% are ever profitable, so it shouldn't be such a stretch that only so few are always profitable.
Although the probabilities sound extreme, if you really think about not so much. And don't forget, with randomness there never is an exact number. So there could be 4 or 6, and 128 or 135 etc etc 😄
P.S. Martingale will always eventually fail. It might be 10 years from now, but eventually it blows up. I'm not sure why anybody bothers to pursue it, because laws of mathematics rule. It's good that you take profits out as you go.
forex_trader_33781
Membre depuis Apr 11, 2011
posts 202
Feb 01, 2013 at 18:49
(édité Feb 01, 2013 at 18:51)
Also, to put things into perspective I went through one of my inactive accounts (I have 6 that I trade with).
Monthly average profit for past 2 years? 3.27%
Max Drawdown? 24.7%
Here's the clincher! Although my current gain is positive, it's NOT in profit. It's actually in the red about $300 😁 😝
So that's why earlier I was saying using 'averages' really means nothing about the profitability of a system.
I also believe that the larger the account size, and the more trades taken, the more strongly the correlation with the arcsine law (I'm sure you've heard of the Law of Large Numbers).
Fun discussion nevertheless! 😄
Monthly average profit for past 2 years? 3.27%
Max Drawdown? 24.7%
Here's the clincher! Although my current gain is positive, it's NOT in profit. It's actually in the red about $300 😁 😝
So that's why earlier I was saying using 'averages' really means nothing about the profitability of a system.
I also believe that the larger the account size, and the more trades taken, the more strongly the correlation with the arcsine law (I'm sure you've heard of the Law of Large Numbers).
Fun discussion nevertheless! 😄
Membre depuis May 30, 2012
posts 134
Feb 01, 2013 at 21:31
Splexin posted:
I also believe that the larger the account size, and the more trades taken, the more strongly the correlation with the arcsine law (I'm sure you've heard of the Law of Large Numbers).
Fun discussion nevertheless! 😄
How about daltons piramid?
Easy explained:
1
11
121
1331
etc
I like it! ^^
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
