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Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account?
Membre depuis May 30, 2012
posts 124
Jan 28, 2013 at 19:51
Finally a decent question
Not able to do that (yet :p ) :)
Betting safe and getting a return of 1500 USD consistant, I'd like to see a live account who does it.
Not able to do that (yet :p ) :)
Betting safe and getting a return of 1500 USD consistant, I'd like to see a live account who does it.
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
Membre depuis Jun 01, 2011
posts 5
Jan 29, 2013 at 11:57
you are able to do it , depends on accuracy and your hedgin skills, i think its not possible without hedging, but yu must know what to do , when eurusd can easilly move up 80 pips and then down 80 pips in 5M bar, im doing your performance daily, but you must wait you will blow it sometimes, i will give you advice, everyday , safe 30/40% of your daily profit to non trading account and you will be safe ....
Jan 29, 2013 at 13:58
You can only make big gains with big risks. If you're not trading quants or HFT algorithms then most likely not.
The question you're asking is very deep in relation to ones system. So i'll keep it simple. If you're a discretionary trader and manually place your trades, then reaching 40% return consistently would be quite incredible without taking signifcant risk.
If you carry this mentality for much longer you're going to shoot yourself in the foot that reaching for high percentage returns in a short amount of time, is what trading is all about. You will most likely blow your account up.
If you have a return of 100% per annum, you can bet your bottom dollar after a couple of years you'll be attracting some serious interest from big investors (at least 6 figure sum) if you can sustain a low drawdown that is. This is far more possible based upon discretionary trading...
Milo's answer isnt really accurate in the slightest.
The question you're asking is very deep in relation to ones system. So i'll keep it simple. If you're a discretionary trader and manually place your trades, then reaching 40% return consistently would be quite incredible without taking signifcant risk.
If you carry this mentality for much longer you're going to shoot yourself in the foot that reaching for high percentage returns in a short amount of time, is what trading is all about. You will most likely blow your account up.
If you have a return of 100% per annum, you can bet your bottom dollar after a couple of years you'll be attracting some serious interest from big investors (at least 6 figure sum) if you can sustain a low drawdown that is. This is far more possible based upon discretionary trading...
Milo's answer isnt really accurate in the slightest.
forex_trader_32952
Membre depuis Mar 30, 2011
posts 58
Jan 30, 2013 at 01:34
3 years guys, atleast 3 years, thats I would call constant profit.
So anybody here making lets say 5% per month for 3 years?
So anybody here making lets say 5% per month for 3 years?
Membre depuis May 04, 2012
posts 1534
Jan 30, 2013 at 04:51
Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for at least 2 years and with less than -25% max. DD...?
The number of such accounts listed under this questions will tell a lot about the chances of an "average Joe" to make a living on Forex... And we are still not talking about getting rich (with 60% yearly profit...)
So... Anybody...???
The number of such accounts listed under this questions will tell a lot about the chances of an "average Joe" to make a living on Forex... And we are still not talking about getting rich (with 60% yearly profit...)
So... Anybody...???
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Membre depuis Apr 25, 2012
posts 269
Jan 30, 2013 at 04:54
(édité Jan 30, 2013 at 04:54)
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/XharpScalper/xharpscalper-live/453904 its more then that.
Membre depuis May 04, 2012
posts 1534
Jan 30, 2013 at 05:13
The mentioned strategy has LESS THAN A MONTH history!
The question again:
Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS (!) and with less than -25% max. DD...?
Anybody...???
The question again:
Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS (!) and with less than -25% max. DD...?
Anybody...???
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
forex_trader_33781
Membre depuis Apr 11, 2011
posts 200
Jan 30, 2013 at 06:28
(édité Jan 30, 2013 at 06:30)
2 years with no losing months? Or just 2 years average profit? Most people here are just gamblers.
Did you know that because of arcsine law it is literally impossible to win every month over a certain period of time (i.e. 2 years, 3 years, etc). You can win 11/12 months a year or 1/12 months a year but over time it will never be 12/12 months a year or even 6/12 a year. The probability of winning 12 months straight is 0.64%, and 5 years straight? Only 0.13%. Really puts things into perspective. You can read about it in Taleb's book and also Baz & Chacko's book.
Before I joined MyFXBook I was in stocks for about 3 years with returns of 400-600%/trade at times, yet in the end only had cumulative cost-adjusted returns of about 35% per year because I didn't win every month, some trades I held for several months. Of course, 35% is better than some Wall Street but not the figures people here want.
If you look at one of my contest accounts I had like 56 trades in a row all winners no losers. Real life? HA. I only win about 51% of all trades.
Recently I have started researching quantitative strategies because there's really no other way of knowing if your strategy is just luck, randomness, a minor inefficiency that will be dry after a few trades, or what not.
Did you know that because of arcsine law it is literally impossible to win every month over a certain period of time (i.e. 2 years, 3 years, etc). You can win 11/12 months a year or 1/12 months a year but over time it will never be 12/12 months a year or even 6/12 a year. The probability of winning 12 months straight is 0.64%, and 5 years straight? Only 0.13%. Really puts things into perspective. You can read about it in Taleb's book and also Baz & Chacko's book.
Before I joined MyFXBook I was in stocks for about 3 years with returns of 400-600%/trade at times, yet in the end only had cumulative cost-adjusted returns of about 35% per year because I didn't win every month, some trades I held for several months. Of course, 35% is better than some Wall Street but not the figures people here want.
If you look at one of my contest accounts I had like 56 trades in a row all winners no losers. Real life? HA. I only win about 51% of all trades.
Recently I have started researching quantitative strategies because there's really no other way of knowing if your strategy is just luck, randomness, a minor inefficiency that will be dry after a few trades, or what not.
Membre depuis May 18, 2010
posts 35
Jan 30, 2013 at 07:48
(édité Jan 30, 2013 at 07:49)
FxMasterGuru posted:
The mentioned strategy has LESS THAN A MONTH history!
The question again:
Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS (!) and with less than -25% max. DD...?
Anybody...???
Im not so good.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/klaabukosmos/suetgold-zulutrader/246414
buy and pray..
Membre depuis May 04, 2012
posts 1534
Jan 30, 2013 at 07:57
(édité Jan 30, 2013 at 08:05)
Splexin posted:
2 years with no losing months? Or just 2 years average profit? Most people here are just gamblers.
Did you know that because of arcsine law it is literally impossible to win every month over a certain period of time (i.e. 2 years, 3 years, etc). You can win 11/12 months a year or 1/12 months a year but over time it will never be 12/12 months a year or even 6/12 a year. The probability of winning 12 months straight is 0.64%, and 5 years straight? Only 0.13%. Really puts things into perspective. You can read about it in Taleb's book and also Baz & Chacko's book.
Before I joined MyFXBook I was in stocks for about 3 years with returns of 400-600%/trade at times, yet in the end only had cumulative cost-adjusted returns of about 35% per year because I didn't win every month, some trades I held for several months. Of course, 35% is better than some Wall Street but not the figures people here want.
If you look at one of my contest accounts I had like 56 trades in a row all winners no losers. Real life? HA. I only win about 51% of all trades.
Recently I have started researching quantitative strategies because there's really no other way of knowing if your strategy is just luck, randomness, a minor inefficiency that will be dry after a few trades, or what not.
I was referring to AVERAGE monthly profit of 5%. It would be unreal not to have a losing month for 2 straight years while achieving an average of 5% monthly profit with less than -25% max. DD (incl. intratrade DD).
I guess there is no one verified LIVE strategy on MyFxBook which would fulfill the above mentioned - and not too ambitious - criteria, which tells a lot about the chances of an "Average Trader Joe" to make a decent living by trading Fx.
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Jan 30, 2013 at 08:45
Thank you Fx Master Guru and Splexin for your insights. It bothers me to hear that it's almost impossible to not have a losing month for 2 straight years and earn an average monthly profit of 5%. It just goes to show how important money management is in the Forex Market. This begs the question is it really possible to earn a living off forex alone and can you survive the market for very long trading USD5000?
1.Make pips 2.Keep pips 3.Repeat 1 & 2
forex_trader_33781
Membre depuis Apr 11, 2011
posts 200
Jan 30, 2013 at 17:18
(édité Jan 30, 2013 at 17:21)
Well, what does average monthly profit do anything to prove a strategy is sound? All you are looking for is something with returns distribution of 5% per month.......you could have something that does great one month (i.e. 90%) but the rest of the year loses. Could you suck on losing 3% per month for 11 months? The psychology will eventually get to you and you will choke. And because of that one great month you will believe in your strategy so much you will either trade more or trade bigger to the point that your losing months wipe you out. Even somebody who does have a system that reaps 5% a month "on average," there is no guarantee it will even continue tomorrow, so what's the point? Instead of looking for someone else's system to trade you should invent your own. All I read around here are people with unrealistic expectations and those too lazy to do their own work.
PowerOptions has a simulation Excel spreadsheet which offers insight as to what size account you need to survive (you can find it free with Google). It is for options and stocks but can be modified for Forex. Basically you input the probability of winning (based on your overall historical track record, for example not just one strategy), account size, commissions, trade target/loss etc and it runs 100 random trades to simulate that. From what I've seen any account less than close to $10,000 will eventually fail, even with strict money management. Someone can be the exception of course, but repeat an event many times (thousands of traders) and you're bound to see a rare event. That's the law of probability. A good analogy to this is playing the lottery. You might never win, but the guy who bought a ticket before or after you does. Would you then say it is impossible to never win, even if you do or don't?
The average trader joe's chances of making a decent living in Forex are pretty slim unless he starts out with a sizable sum and doesn't lose a lot money during his training (experience) period. And even then there's no guarantees. If it were that easy then everyone with a few bucks would quit their jobs and play the markets. It's just unrealistic.
Trading is currently my only income and has been for at least 4-5 years. If you want to survive then you have to be able to stomach losing streaks of even up to a year long. Most people can't do this without another job. You also have to learn to live frugally since future returns are never guaranteed (unlike a salary). To people here with <$10,000 I recommend saving up more money while trading paper to learn the ropes. Actually for most people I recommend just getting a good paying job with benefits :)
PowerOptions has a simulation Excel spreadsheet which offers insight as to what size account you need to survive (you can find it free with Google). It is for options and stocks but can be modified for Forex. Basically you input the probability of winning (based on your overall historical track record, for example not just one strategy), account size, commissions, trade target/loss etc and it runs 100 random trades to simulate that. From what I've seen any account less than close to $10,000 will eventually fail, even with strict money management. Someone can be the exception of course, but repeat an event many times (thousands of traders) and you're bound to see a rare event. That's the law of probability. A good analogy to this is playing the lottery. You might never win, but the guy who bought a ticket before or after you does. Would you then say it is impossible to never win, even if you do or don't?
The average trader joe's chances of making a decent living in Forex are pretty slim unless he starts out with a sizable sum and doesn't lose a lot money during his training (experience) period. And even then there's no guarantees. If it were that easy then everyone with a few bucks would quit their jobs and play the markets. It's just unrealistic.
Trading is currently my only income and has been for at least 4-5 years. If you want to survive then you have to be able to stomach losing streaks of even up to a year long. Most people can't do this without another job. You also have to learn to live frugally since future returns are never guaranteed (unlike a salary). To people here with <$10,000 I recommend saving up more money while trading paper to learn the ropes. Actually for most people I recommend just getting a good paying job with benefits :)
Membre depuis May 30, 2012
posts 124
Jan 30, 2013 at 20:38
@ Splexin ,
like the way you give probability's nd stuf.
I believe you can use statistical probability to your advantage in trading forex.
like the way you give probability's nd stuf.
I believe you can use statistical probability to your advantage in trading forex.
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
forex_trader_33781
Membre depuis Apr 11, 2011
posts 200
Jan 30, 2013 at 20:46
(édité Jan 30, 2013 at 20:47)
Financialarts posted:
@ Splexin ,
like the way you give probability's nd stuf.
I believe you can use statistical probability to your advantage in trading forex.
Yes you can. There are lots of different statistical properties that you can exploit in Forex, more so with high-frequency trading but the average trader can still find opportunities. Examples include pair trading (if you can find mean-reverting currencies), triangular arbitrage (rare), momentum trading based on currency volatility, modeling interest rates and trading longer term, modeling price, trading certain pairs at certain times (College of William & Mary did an academic paper about that, I believe), and so on.
I've been researching this stuff since last year and haven't even grazed the tip of the iceberg. It just takes a lot of hard work, and that's something not many people are willing to do. But I would rather be winning and know I am winning because of a probabilistic edge-- and not just randomness-- than anything else. If you run a random walk it looks exactly like any forex chart. The first time I did that was a true eye-opener for me.
Anyway, didn't mean to take away from this thread but I don't get on the forum often and thought I would contribute. If anybody is interested in this stuff I recommend searching through the SSRN (Social Science Research Network). They have tons of academic papers from researchers who have already done a lot of work.
Jan 30, 2013 at 20:51
Splexin the door is always open to you, I'm sure everyone here's happy with the contributions you and everyone else here has made. Some of us are here to learn, what's that they say about knowledge being power?? or something like that.
1.Make pips 2.Keep pips 3.Repeat 1 & 2
Membre depuis May 30, 2012
posts 124
Jan 30, 2013 at 21:04
@ Splexin ,
I've worked on an ea which "bended" probability into a "wannabe" linear net gain equity curve, Check the results at
http://championship.mql5.com/2012/en/users/Financialarts
It uses channel outbreak and probability to get net gain result.
running a version of this one on a real mt4 account atm.
I've worked on an ea which "bended" probability into a "wannabe" linear net gain equity curve, Check the results at
http://championship.mql5.com/2012/en/users/Financialarts
It uses channel outbreak and probability to get net gain result.
running a version of this one on a real mt4 account atm.
I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
