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Forex Cyborg

Gain : +190.79%
Drawdown 19.88%
Pips: 6076.3
Transactions 2941
Gagné:
Perdu:
Type: Réel
Levier: 1:200
Trading: Automatisé

Discussion Forex Cyborg

MicF
Aug 24 2017 at 11:06
posts 95
Princerise posted:
If you are using a strategy that gave poor results each year for the past 6 years then the probability for it to give bad results on the coming year is higher than average.
 


Mathematical just not true.


Forex is all about probabilities. No one know the futur, when someone enter the market it's all about probabilities of winning more money than what you lose.


True.
But this counters your first statement.
Probabilities = Stochastics.

Princerise
Aug 29 2017 at 12:20
posts 7
You have seen the rest, now see the best!!
I'm starting to have some doubts when i see how ugly the charts are in real accounts compared to backtest.
Just look, it have gone beyond the 20% DD, it was not supposed to happen!!! And it happened just few months after forex cyborg start to trade, just imagine what forex cyborg will face on the long term.

Princerise
Sep 05 2017 at 12:25
posts 7
I have done some backtests with 99% precision and i am still confident in forex cyborg to generate some money in the long term. So i willl run each chart independently (without the risk correllation manager) and with low risks of 2% per trade on each chart, the preset will be normal, not conservative, the backtests reveals that conservative mode is too conservative, it don't generate enough money. EA will be allowed to trade on friday evening and monday morning. I will let that run for 3 or 4 months and see the results. If results are good, i will increase the risks depending on how much % it generated each months and also depending on the relative drawdown.

rob70
Sep 06 2017 at 06:20
posts 5
even 99% bt are often wrong

Princerise
Sep 06 2017 at 14:44
posts 7
My backtests are done with Tick Data Suite 2, commissions, slippage, variable spread, over a period of 10 years, that's as close as we can get to the reality. And Forex Cyborg is not only surviving on thoses kind of rude conditions, but he is also generating good profits with some really reasonable drawdown.
commissions = 12$ per round lot turn (yeah i know my broker is greedy, it should be 5$ if i had a good broker).
I applied some slippage on the GBPAUD only, there is no simulated slippage on the EURAUD and on the AUDCAD backtests, but it's almost sure that the results will still be good even with added slippage cause GBPAUD is the worst performing pair among thoses 3 and still the slippage didn't stop him from generating good and consistent profits.
Spread is the real spread of dukascopy (variable spread).
As you can see the results seems to be rather correct. That's the reason why i don't use the currency correlation manager, cause i know for almost sure that each pair perform well when taken individually, but i am not sure if the currency correlation manager could cause some pairs to miss some potentially important trades.
If someone know a EA that don't rely on martingale and perform as good as this one, then please let know cause i haven't found any yet.

Fichiers joints:


Forex Cyborg (forexcyborg)
Sep 06 2017 at 14:56
posts 27
Hello,

the 99% backtests are not wrong, they just can't predict the future too. No one can do it. Not even what will happen in the next hour.
So even the best trading methods and EAs with the best backtests and with 2-3 years of forward tests can fail someday. All we can do is to analyse the past, develop a strategy that would fit into this market behavior and see if the market will have similar patterns in the future.
If you look into the august, you will see that we had some unusual movements especially for the CHF-pairs.
All multi-currency asian scalper with a forward tests failed to make profit in this month.

We are still confident, that this is just a unusal move but we will be profitable in the future again.

Have a great day everyone!

MicF
Sep 06 2017 at 16:01
posts 95
You've mentioned earlier, that you have another pair in test.
Can you tell us a bit more?

Forex Cyborg (forexcyborg)
Sep 07 2017 at 06:25
posts 27
Hello MicF,

it is GBPCHF and the backtest optimization is already finished.
Currently a small forward test (demo) is running.

Here is the backtest result:
Timeframe: 2011 till today
Risk: 1 lot (fixed) per trade.



Fichiers joints:


MicF
Sep 07 2017 at 17:16
posts 95
95% winning trades is nice.
But on the other hand the average loosing trade is immense.

That's what we had in August.

Forex Cyborg (forexcyborg)
Sep 10 2017 at 06:23
posts 27
Well the average loosing trade is not what matter in my view. I will show you a backtest with the same settings, except the fact that small looses are accepted:





As you can see the average loss is now nearly at the same level as the average profit trade.
More important is how robust a trading strategy is on long term.
Every system can and will have draw down phases. One of the biggest mistakes in my view is to jump of at the lowest point and say that a EA is bad.
If a strategy is robust, than it will recover the loss if you give it enough time.
What is displayed here in the backtest charts as a 'small' drawdown would be 1-3 months recovery time for this pair, before reaching a new equity high.
It is not possible to win every day or every month in my view. I know no system that could manage this for years. So the important factor is: how good is a strategy on long term. Not only on a few weeks.


Fichiers joints:


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