ATFX Market Outlook 14th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 14th August 2025

Markets Soar as Treasury Signals Possible 50 bps Fed Cut; Dollar Slips, Gold Shines

Market HighlightMarkets now view a September Fed rate cut as almost certain, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary hinting at a possible larger 50-basis-point move. U.S. equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs for a second straight day, fueled by expectations of a new monetary easing cycle. The Dow Jones rose 1.04%, the S&P 500 gained 0.32%, and the Nasdaq added 0.14%.

The U.S. dollar fell for a second session, after softer inflation data reinforced September rate cut bets and President Trump renewed pressure for rate cuts, deepening dollar selling. The DXY slipped 0.2% to 97.856, its lowest since July 28. EUR/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.1698, while GBP/USD gained 0.5% to 1.3567.

Gold rose on dollar weakness and lower Treasury yields, with mild CPI data strengthening September cut expectations and fueling bets for further easing later this year. Spot gold gained 0.3% to $3,354.43 per ounce. Oil prices fell to over two-month lows after bearish supply guidance from the U.S. government and the IEA, while Trump warned Russia’s President Putin of “severe consequences” if he obstructs peace in Ukraine.

Key Outlook

The UK will release Q2 and June GDP data, with expectations for Q2 GDP YoY at 1% (prior 1.3%) and June three-month GDP MoM slowing to 0.1% (prior 0.5%). Even with slower growth, continued expansion could support the BoE holding rates steady. In the U.S., July PPI is expected to accelerate to 2.5% YoY (prior 2.3%), aligning with the mild CPI trend. Initial jobless claims are seen at 228,000 (prior 226,000), indicating a stable labor market.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB GDP JUN ***

14:00 GB Trade Balance & Industrial Production JUN **

17:00 EU GDP 2nd Est Q2 ***

17:00 EU Industrial Production UN **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:30 US PPI JULY **

Tomorrow: 

07:50 JP GDP Flash Q2 ***

10:00 CN Industrial Production & Retail Sales JULY **

12:30 JP Industrial Production JUN**

20:30 US Core Retail Sales JULY ***

21:15 US Industrial Production JULY **

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel AUG ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1789/1.1835

· Support: 1.1636/1.1589

EUR/USD hit two-week highs above 1.1700 on USD weakness and better risk sentiment. Technically, price holds above 1.1636 support, with a bullish “W” pattern likely targeting the 1.1750 trendline and 1.1789 if momentum continues. Eurozone jobs, industrial output, and Q2 GDP data will be key for further gains.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3696/1.3764

· Support: 1.3471/1.3418

GBP/USD extended to multi-week highs near 1.3600 amid broad USD softness. Markets await UK GDP, trade balance, and key production data; upbeat figures could support a pullback retest of 1.3471 - 1.3418 before targeting 1.3696 resistance.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.79/148.39

· Support: 145.85/145.26

USD/JPY fell to weekly lows as USD selling intensified. Technically, price broke below trendline support and is testing near 146.50; if rebound stalls at 147.79 resistance, focus could shift to 145.85 support. Traders await Japan’s preliminary Q2 GDP and foreign bond investment data on August 15, which could shape near-term yen direction.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 64.01/64.69

· Support: 61.78/61.10

WTI crude fell to over two-month lows at $62.65/bbl after a surprise EIA inventory build, weak exports, and an IEA demand downgrade. Technically, it is near $61.78 support—breaking lower could extend losses, while a rebound may target $64.01 resistance. Traders watch the Trump-Putin meeting for potential impacts on the Russia-Ukraine situation and oil market.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3394/3409

· Support: 3339/3322

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 39.03/39.53

· Support: 37.86/37.46

Spot gold hovered near $3,360/oz, supported by a weaker USD and lower Treasury yields, while softer US CPI reinforced September rate cut bets. Technically, price is in a wedge pattern; a break above $3,394 and the descending trendline could target higher levels, while a drop below $3,339 and the ascending trendline may trigger deeper retracement.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45354/45716

· Support: 44653/44290

The Dow futures rose 1.04% to 44,922.27, supported by gains in financials and healthcare, with markets fully pricing in a September Fed rate cut. Technically, holding above the 44,653 support keeps the bullish bias intact, with potential to retest the 45,354 resistance if the level holds on a pullback.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24041/24148

· Support: 23693/23587

0.14% to 21,713.14, marking a second consecutive record close, though some tech leaders weakened as investors sought fresh growth drivers. Technically, holding above the 23,693 support and trendline confluence could pave the way for another push toward the 24,041 resistance.

BTC

· Resistance: 124551/125910

· Support: 121559/ 120244

Bitcoin hit a record $123,588 early Thursday, lifted by rising September Fed rate cut bets and corporate buying. Softer U.S. CPI and Bullish Inc’s NYSE debut rally of nearly 90% boosted sentiment. Key resistance is at $124,551, with potential to $125,910; support at $121,559 and $120,244.

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