Dollar Consolidates as Shutdown Risks and Central Bank Signals Drive FX Moves | 2nd October 2025

Dollar Ranges, FX Shifts

The US Dollar steadied on Thursday, with the DXY consolidating near the 97.70–97.75 zone as traders weighed U.S. government shutdown risks, shifting central bank signals, and incoming inflation data from Europe and Switzerland. Major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD saw modest gains, while cross-currencies such as EUR/JPY and USD/CHF reflected a cautious but rangebound market tone.

US Dollar Index Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating around 97.70–97.75, holding just above a one-week low as traders weigh ongoing U.S. government shutdown concerns and shifting expectations for Fed policy. Despite the pullback, the Dollar remains resilient within its broader trading range.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Heightened U.S. shutdown uncertainty weighs on risk sentiment, capping Dollar gains.

US Economic Data: Investors await upcoming inflation and jobs data to assess Fed policy direction.

FOMC Outcome: Markets expect gradual easing but remain cautious until incoming data provides clarity.

Trade Policy: No major trade developments; global risk flows remain a secondary influence on USD.

Monetary Policy: Fed officials maintain a cautious tone, keeping Dollar momentum in check.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bearish consolidation just above one-week lows.

Resistance: First resistance at 97.95, stronger level at 98.20.

Support: Immediate support at 97.60, followed by 97.30.

Forecast: DXY is likely to trade rangebound, with downside risks if shutdown fears intensify or U.S. data disappoints.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral sentiment dominates as traders hesitate to add fresh Dollar longs amid political uncertainty.

Catalysts: U.S. shutdown developments, inflation and jobs data, and Fed commentary will set near-term direction.

EUR/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/JPY rebounded from the 172.50 support area, aligning with the 50-day EMA, after recent profit-taking drove the pair lower. The recovery reflects renewed Euro demand as the Yen remains weighed by BoJ policy divergence and weak domestic fundamentals.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Broader market caution due to U.S. fiscal tensions and European data releases keeps volatility contained.

US Economic Data: Indirect impact via Dollar flows could spill into cross-yen dynamics.

FOMC Outcome: Dollar-linked shifts in risk sentiment indirectly influence EUR/JPY.

Trade Policy: Stable trade backdrop provides little disruption to Euro performance.

Monetary Policy: Diverging ECB caution versus BoJ’s ultra-loose stance favors EUR/JPY resilience above key support. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Rebounding within a broader bullish structure.

Resistance: Initial resistance at 173.20, stronger level at 173.80.

Support: Key support rests at 172.50, with deeper downside near 171.90.

Forecast: EUR/JPY is expected to remain supported above 172.50, with room for gradual upside if Eurozone data improves.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish as buyers step in at the 50-day EMA.

Catalysts: Eurozone inflation releases, ECB commentary, BoJ communication, and global risk appetite will shape near-term moves.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD is steady near 1.3500, holding onto recent gains as the Bank of England maintains a cautious policy stance. The pair benefits from broad Dollar hesitation tied to U.S. shutdown risks, though upside momentum is capped by softer UK growth signals.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: U.S. fiscal uncertainty indirectly supports GBP, but UK political and trade headlines remain a background risk.

US Economic Data: U.S. inflation and labor reports remain key in shaping Dollar direction and GBP/USD momentum.

FOMC Outcome: Fed caution softens USD strength, offering near-term support to the Pound.

Trade Policy: Post-Brexit trade dynamics remain steady, with little immediate impact on GBP/USD.

Monetary Policy: The BoE’s cautious tone tempers bullish momentum, keeping traders hesitant to price in aggressive rate changes.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bullish above 1.3450.

Resistance: First resistance at 1.3530, with stronger hurdle at 1.3580.

Support: Immediate support at 1.3470, deeper at 1.3420.

Forecast: GBP/USD is likely to hold its ground near 1.3500, with modest upside if Dollar weakness persists.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-positive, with traders cautious but favoring Sterling stability.

Catalysts: U.S. shutdown negotiations, UK data prints, BoE commentary, and U.S. inflation releases will guide direction.

USD/CHF Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CHF is consolidating around 0.7960 as traders await Swiss inflation figures that could influence the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) cautious stance. The Dollar’s stability, despite U.S. shutdown risks, keeps the pair supported within a tight range.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: U.S. fiscal uncertainty continues to influence broad Dollar flows, indirectly steering USD/CHF.

US Economic Data: Traders eye upcoming PCE inflation and labor market reports for Dollar direction.

FOMC Outcome: Fed’s gradual easing expectations underpin USD stability.

Trade Policy: No major trade developments; cross driven mainly by domestic data.

Monetary Policy: The SNB’s cautious stance leaves the Franc sensitive to inflation surprises, while the Fed’s posture supports a steady Dollar.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral consolidation near 0.7960.

Resistance: Initial resistance at 0.7990, stronger barrier at 0.8020.

Support: Immediate support at 0.7935, followed by 0.7900.

Forecast: USD/CHF is likely to trade sideways, with limited volatility until Swiss inflation provides fresh direction.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral, with markets awaiting inflation data for the next trigger.

Catalysts: Swiss CPI release, SNB commentary, U.S. shutdown headlines, and Fed communication will be key drivers.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD is trading modestly above 1.1700, supported by U.S. Dollar weakness linked to government shutdown risks. The pair remains rangebound but tilted higher as investors await key inflation data in Europe and the U.S.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: U.S. shutdown concerns pressure the Dollar, lifting the Euro in the short term.

US Economic Data: Inflation and jobs figures will provide clearer guidance for USD direction.

FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious tone adds weight to Dollar softness, indirectly supporting EUR.

Trade Policy: No fresh developments, leaving policy divergence as the main driver.

Monetary Policy: ECB’s cautious approach caps gains, but U.S. fiscal headwinds limit Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Modest bullish momentum above 1.1700.

Resistance: First resistance at 1.1745, stronger level near 1.1780.

Support: Immediate support at 1.1680, followed by 1.1640.

Forecast: EUR/USD likely to grind higher above 1.1700, with upside capped unless Eurozone inflation surprises hawkishly.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish as shutdown risks weigh more on USD than on EUR.

Catalysts: U.S. fiscal negotiations, Eurozone inflation data, ECB commentary, and Fed communication will drive momentum.

Wrap-up

Overall, trading conditions remain data- and policy-driven, with metals reflecting investor caution and FX pairs diverging along central bank lines. Shutdown risks in the US, coupled with China’s policy signals and BoJ indecision, add layers of uncertainty heading into key economic data releases. Traders should expect volatility around US political developments, central bank commentary, and commodity market shifts as sentiment remains fragile.

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