Precious Metals Steady, USD Holds Firm Against Majors | 18th August 2025

Metals Steady, USD Strong

Precious metals are trading steadily at the start of the week, with gold and silver finding firm ground as investors weigh global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The US Dollar continues to show resilience, holding firm against major currencies, supported by stable Treasury yields and expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Market participants remain cautious, balancing safe-haven flows into metals with the strength of the greenback, creating a tug-of-war that has kept prices from making any decisive breakout. Traders are now closely monitoring upcoming US economic data and central bank commentary for clearer signals on the next market direction.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold is trading near $3,330 in early Monday Asian hours, holding below the key $3,350 level amid cooling safe-haven demand. The metal is pressured by stronger U.S. inflation prints, including a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI), while markets now brace for a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Sentiment is tepid as markets await developments from the U.S.–Ukraine talks, which could reignite or dampen safe-haven flows depending on the tone.

US Economic Data: Strong PPI (+3.3% YoY vs. 2.5% expected) is tightening Fed expectations, weighing on gold.

FOMC Outlook: Inflation pressure from PPI pushes back on rate-cut bets, which typically provide bullish tailwinds for gold.

Trade Policy: No immediate updates, though broader trade sentiment remains a backdrop.

Monetary Policy: Softer bond yields are offering some support, especially as markets price in September rate-cut possibilities..

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral to mildly bearish — unable to sustain a move above $3,350.

Resistance: $3,350–$3,355 zone is a tough ceiling; a breakout could lead to a retest of $3,400.

Support: Immediate support near $3,330, followed by $3,325–$3,320.

Forecast: Likely consolidation between $3,320–$3,350 ahead of the U.S.–Ukraine meeting. A dovish result or disappointing tone could ignite a bounce; conversely, progress may dampen gold’s allure.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral — traders are watching for cues from both economic data and geopolitical developments.

Catalyst: The Trump–Zelenskiy meeting today is the central focal point for potential volatility shifts in gold.

Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver has bounced off the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the H4 chart and retested the critical $38.25 barrier, with a move above this level likely to fuel bullish momentum toward the $38.50–$38.75 zones. Traders are cautiously watching for sustained strength before taking aggressive long positions.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: No known geopolitical catalysts affecting silver at present; sentiment is tethered mainly to broader risk flows.

US Economic Data: Strong U.S. inflation readings—particularly PPI—are putting pressure on the dollar, which could support silver if sustained.

FOMC Outlook: Inflation fears may delay expectations of rate cuts, providing mixed implications for silver.

Trade Policy: No immediate trade headlines impacting silver; global macro sentiment is the prevailing driver.

Monetary Policy: As a non-yielding asset, silver benefits from dovish central bank narratives, though continued inflation resilience may restrain momentum.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral to mildly bullish — price support from the 200-SMA on H4 is encouraging increases.

Resistance: Key around $38.25–$38.50, with the potential to rally toward a near-term top at $38.75 if exceeded.

Support: Strong near the 200-SMA (~$38.00–$38.10). A slide below could expose the mid–$37 region and possibly lower to the $37.00 level.Forecast: Likely consolidation near $38.00–$38.50. A sustained breakout above $38.25 may open the way to upward targets near $38.75–$39.00; failure could trigger a retracement toward $37.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic — buyers are seen defending support, but confirmation is needed for follow-through.

Catalyst: A decisive close above $38.25 is the immediate trigger to monitor. Additionally, any development in U.S. inflation or Fed commentary could influence near-term direction.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3555 in early Monday Asian hours. The pair is under moderate pressure amid modest US Dollar strength, as markets adopt a cautious tone ahead of the high-profile U.S.–Ukraine talks. Meanwhile, the UK’s Q2 GDP surprise of +0.3% QoQ offers limited support. UK July CPI data, to be released tomorrow, will be closely watched for further direction.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is placing a bid under the dollar due to heightened safe-haven demand.

US Economic Data: Strong recent US data, including PPI, is reinforcing expectations of a resilient Fed, bolstering the dollar.

FOMC Outlook: The likelihood of a Fed rate cut remains high (around 84%), but expectations of inflation persist, keeping the dollar supported.

Trade Policy: No overt policy shifts reported today, though trade tensions remain a background concern.

Monetary Policy: The upbeat UK GDP reading offers some buffer, but broader expectations around the Bank of England’s policy remain cautious.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral to slightly bearish — the pair remains capped near 1.3555.

Resistance: 1.3570–1.3600 area is the hurdle to watch.

Support: A floor is forming around 1.3520–1.3500, with possible support near the nine-day EMA.

Forecast: GBP/USD is likely to hover within the 1.3500–1.3600 range ahead of tomorrow’s UK CPI. A dovish inflation surprise may lift sterling, while a strong US dollar or dovish UK inflation could push it lower.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously balanced — the pound has support from UK growth but is weighed by safe-haven USD flows.

Catalyst: Tomorrow’s UK CPI data will be a key trigger for GBP/USD direction. Geopolitical developments may also shift sentiment quickly.

USD/CNY (PBOC Reference Rate) forecast

Current Price and Context

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1322, notably stronger than Friday’s fix of 7.1371 and the Reuters-estimated average of 7.1793.  The firmer-than-expected rate suggests a subtle easing of policy tightness or support for the Renminbi, amid broader efforts to maintain stability in foreign exchange markets.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: No immediate geopolitical pressures, though global trade tensions remain a backdrop influencing central bank policy and FX settings.

US Economic Data: Strength in the US economy puts upward pressure on the dollar broadly—but today’s RMB fix indicates PBOC’s willingness to counterbalance such effects.

FOMC Outlook: The Fed’s course remains the biggest driver for broad USD strength—Chinese authorities may be proactively offsetting that to protect export and domestic stability.

Trade Policy: With uncertainties still circling China–US trade, a firmer CNY can help cushion export competitiveness despite potential external pressure.

Monetary Policy: The slightly stronger reference rate hints at PBOC’s cautious stance—possibly watching to avoid excessive yuan weakening.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mildly bearish for USD/CNY in the short term—today’s fix displays a controlled move toward strengthening CNY.

Resistance: Around 7.1400, where previous reference rates clustered before this move.

Support: Near-term support around 7.1300, as the lower threshold may reflect PBOC’s stabilization target zone.

Forecast: Expect consolidation roughly between 7.1300–7.1400. Continued CNY support from policy settings may pressure the pair lower, though persistent USD strength or rising capital outflows may test upper resistance levels.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously stabilizing—market watchers interpret the move as deliberate PBOC intervention to deter further yuan depreciation.

Catalyst: Next reference-rate setting will be keyed into quickly. US monetary policy signals and trade developments could prompt additional adjustments.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD is hovering around 0.5930, buoyed by favorable market sentiment (“risk-on” tone), while lacking the conviction for further upside. Modest strength in the US Dollar and looming decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) limit aggressive bullish positioning ahead of key central bank events.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Markets remain optimistic following initial thawing in geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to the Ukraine conflict, supporting broader risk assets.

US Economic Data: Modest USD strength is subtle resistance for NZD/USD; traders remain cautious ahead of Fed rate-cut cues expected from Jackson Hole.

FOMC Outlook: Uncertainty lingers around the Fed’s direction, with upcoming Jackson Hole speeches seen as pivotal for USD direction.

Trade Policy: No fresh developments, though broader risk sentiment continues to influence flows into the New Zealand Dollar.

Monetary Policy: Expectations of an RBNZ rate cut this Wednesday remain high, pressured by sluggish labor and inflation indicators—this is a key restraining factor for NZD bulls.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral—NZD/USD is stable within its trading range but lacks follow-through to break higher.

Resistance: The 0.5935–0.5950 zone is the immediate ceiling to overcome.

Support: Near-term support lies at 0.5900–0.5910, with deeper backing around earlier range lows.

Forecast: Expect sideways action between 0.5900–0.5950. A break above may unfold if sentiment strengthens, while any signs of dovish Fed or strong USD might pressure it toward the lower end.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic—NZD is supported by risk appetite, but cautious ahead of central bank updates.

Catalyst: The RBNZ’s interest rate decision this Wednesday and Fed commentary from Jackson Hole are the key upcoming triggers for NZD/USD movement.

Wrap-up

The current environment reflects a market caught between caution and conviction. Precious metals are benefitting from safe-haven demand, yet the strong US Dollar and higher-for-longer interest rate expectations are capping their upside momentum. With geopolitical risks lingering and inflation data on the horizon, volatility could resurface quickly. For now, both precious metals and the Dollar appear steady, but the next big move will likely be triggered by economic releases or policy shifts in the weeks ahead. Investors should stay alert, as sentiment could shift rapidly depending on the catalysts.

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