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Hello everyone
Feb 21, 2019 at 13:02
Anggota Sejak Feb 07, 2019
47 pos
AlHashim posted:togr posted:walpants posted:
hello and welcome, im new to, im doing a lot of reading on here, there is some very good advice on here.
I would not say you get proper education here on MFB
The forums are very good for tips and specific questions but there is better educational material in other places
of coarse, i am finding material from all over to add to my education.
Anggota Sejak Mar 02, 2017
50 pos
Feb 24, 2019 at 13:19
Anggota Sejak Mar 02, 2017
50 pos
After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1
Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%
In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.
But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...
20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.
A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.
If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.
These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.
3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1
Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%
In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.
But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...
20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.
A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.
If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.
These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.
3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!
Trade safely... Remember, a high Drawdown means a high risk!
Anggota Sejak Feb 25, 2019
10 pos
Feb 25, 2019 at 13:49
Anggota Sejak Feb 25, 2019
10 pos
Arcferreira posted:
After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1
Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%
In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.
But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...
20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.
A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.
If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.
These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.
3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!
You make a very interesting point but the hard part for me has been finding a strategy that yields just 2%. Most strategy I try end up losing a lot not matter what I do
Anggota Sejak Feb 10, 2019
54 pos
Anggota Sejak Feb 11, 2019
34 pos
Mar 25, 2019 at 06:55
Anggota Sejak Feb 08, 2019
213 pos
AharonGorion posted:Arcferreira posted:
After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1
Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%
In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.
But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...
20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.
A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.
If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.
These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.
3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!
You make a very interesting point but the hard part for me has been finding a strategy that yields just 2%. Most strategy I try end up losing a lot not matter what I do
Doesn't have to be 2%. You can set yourself free with 0.5% edge or even lower
Anggota Sejak Jul 12, 2018
24 pos
Apr 01, 2019 at 10:29
Anggota Sejak Feb 22, 2011
4862 pos
Treeny posted:AharonGorion posted:Arcferreira posted:
After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1
Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%
In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.
But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...
20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.
A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.
If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.
These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.
3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!
You make a very interesting point but the hard part for me has been finding a strategy that yields just 2%. Most strategy I try end up losing a lot not matter what I do
Doesn't have to be 2%. You can set yourself free with 0.5% edge or even lower
It is nice to calculate expectancy when you know you have 8 winning trades and 12 losing trades.
But you never know how many trades will be winning and how many loosing.
Apr 01, 2019 at 12:41
Anggota Sejak Oct 31, 2018
10 pos
Treeny posted:AharonGorion posted:Arcferreira posted:
After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1
Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%
In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.
But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...
20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.
A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.
If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.
These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.
3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!
You make a very interesting point but the hard part for me has been finding a strategy that yields just 2%. Most strategy I try end up losing a lot not matter what I do
Doesn't have to be 2%. You can set yourself free with 0.5% edge or even lower
I find getting an edge the difficult bit. I have trade the standard strategies but none of them give me the 'edge' that means I can beat the market and get some profit. 0.5% would be a vast improvement on the 20% loss that I am currently in
Anggota Sejak Mar 03, 2019
57 pos
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759 pos
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