ATFX Market Outlook 15th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 15th August 2025

US July PPI Surges, Dollar Rebounds — All Eyes on Retail Sales

Market HighlightIn July, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest gain in three years and far exceeding economists’ expectations, potentially adding uncertainty to the Fed’s rate cut path. US stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 reaching a record closing high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq ended flat. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P 500 rose 0.03%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.01%.

The US dollar index ended a two-day decline, supported by stronger-than-expected PPI data and rising Treasury yields. The index gained 0.5% to 98.25. EUR/USD fell 0.5% to 1.16413, GBP/USD dropped 0.3% to 1.35325, and USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 147.87.

Gold fell 0.56% to $3,335.7/oz as stronger inflation and lower jobless claims lifted the USD and yields, dimming chances of a 50 bps Fed cut in September. Oil rose 2% to a one-week high after Trump warned of “serious consequences” if Ukraine talks with Putin failed, while hopes for a September Fed cut supported demand outlook.

Key Outlook

Tonight, the US will release July retail sales data. Following the first rebound in three months in the prior reading, retail sales are expected to slow slightly, with forecasts at 0.5% month-on-month (previous 0.6%). Additionally, US July industrial production is expected to show zero growth, while the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is anticipated to rise to 62 (previous 61.7).

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 US Retail Sales MoM JUL ***  

21:15 US Industrial Production MoM JUL  ** 

21:15 US Manufacturing Production MoM JUL ** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel AUG  ***

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: EU Balance of Trade, US NAHB Housing Market Index 

Tuesday: CA CPI, US Building Permits & Housing Starts

Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, GERMANY PPI, GB CPI, EU CPI

Thursday: FOMC Minutes, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, US/EU/GB Manufacturing & Services PMI, CA PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Existing Home Sales

Friday: JP CPI, GERMANY GDP, GB Retail Sales

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1731/1.1770

· Support: 1.1600/1.1560

EUR/USD slid 0.57% to 1.1638 after US July PPI and Core PPI surged, driven by tariff effects, while jobless claims fell—dampening bets on a 50 bps Fed cut. Technically, the pair is retreating toward 1.1600 support; holding above may see a rebound to 1.1731–1.1770, while a break could target 1.1560 support.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3591/1.3642

· Support: 1.3471/1.3418

GBP/USD retreated from near 1.3600 after hotter-than-expected US July PPI boosted USD and Treasury yields. Price is approaching key 1.3471 support, holding above this level may trigger a rebound toward 1.3591 resistance. UK GDP and Industrial Production both beat forecasts, providing underlying support to GBP. Friday’s US Retail Sales  could steer the next move.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.39/148.99

· Support: 146.60/145.85

The yen rose to around 147.30 per dollar on Friday, supported by Q2 GDP growth of 0.3% QoQ and stronger BOJ rate hike expectations. Gains were driven by net exports and remarks from US Treasury Secretary Bessent on BOJ’s slow inflation response. Technically, USD/JPY is range-bound between 148.39 resistance and 146.60 support; a breakout could aim for 148.99, while a drop below support may target 145.85.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 64.69/65.55

· Support: 62.45/61.78

Oil rose2% to $63.96/bbl, a one-week high, on optimism over the Trump-Putin summit and September Fed rate cut expectations. Trump warned of “serious consequences” if talks fail, with markets seeing lower rates boosting demand. Technically, prices broke above the downtrend line and held over $62.45 support; a stable retest could target $64.69.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3355/3376

· Support: 3305/3289

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.44/38.73

· Support: 37.47/37.17

Gold fell as hotter-than-expected US PPI and lower jobless claims lifted the USD and Treasury yields, trimming bets on a 50bps September Fed cut. Spot gold closed at $3,337.21/oz, down 0.5%. Technically, prices have broken below the ascending trendline and are consolidating under the 3,355 resistance. A failed rebound could extend the decline toward the 3,305 support.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45354/45716

· Support: 44653/44290

The Dow Futures slipped 0.02% to 44,911.26 as hotter US PPI cooled rate cut bets, with tariff risks and high valuations capping gains. Technically, price nears the 45,354 resistance and trendline confluence, facing a potential breakout or pullback toward 44,653 support.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24041/24148

· Support: 23693/23587

The NAS100 slipped 0.01% to 21,710.67 as hotter US PPI and tech sector softness kept buyers cautious. Technically, price hovers near 23,830 with key support at 23,693; holding above may see a rebound towards 24,041, while a break lower risks deeper pullback.

BTC

· Resistance: 119728/121572

· Support: 115257/ 113792

Bitcoin retreated sharply after hitting a record $124,457, pressured by hotter-than-expected July PPI (+0.9% MoM, biggest gain in 3 years) and renewed inflation concerns, sliding to $118,250 with technicals pointing to a potential pullback toward $115,257 support before rebounding.

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