ATFX Market Outlook 21st October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 21st October 2025

US Stocks Rally Boosts Risk Appetite, Gold Extends Momentum to Record Highs

Market Highlight

US equities surged on Monday, with financial and technology shares providing most of the upside. Optimistic quarterly earnings revived risk appetite, while concerns about regional banks’ credit quality eased. The Dow gained 1.12%, the S&P 500 rose 1.07%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.37%. The US Dollar Index edged higher alongside Treasury yields.

Gold prices climbed over 2%, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand. Investors are also awaiting upcoming trade negotiations and the US inflation report. Spot gold rose 2.5% to $4,355.25 per ounce. Meanwhile, oil settled at its lowest level since early May as traders weighed the risk of global oversupply amid rising trade tensions and concerns over slowing energy demand.

Key Outlook

Tuesday’s data calendar is relatively light. Canada will release September CPI data, expected to remain below the 2% target yearly, with monthly figures showing moderate growth. Stronger-than-expected labor data earlier this month has already reduced the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut in October. Markets will also watch the outcome of Japan’s Prime Minister designation vote. On the central bank front, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at an event, with investors closely monitoring her comments on the economic and rate outlook.

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 CA CPI YoY SEP ** 

19:00 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks ***

Tomorrow:

02:30 Nymex Crude Oil November Futures Expires *** 

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

14:00 GB CPI YoY SEP **  

20:25 ECB President Lagarde Speech ***

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1706/1.1728

· Support: 1.1589/1.1568

EUR/USD steadies near 1.1640, with traders eyeing U.S. CPI and the prolonged government shutdown. Softer German PPI reinforced the ECB’s cautious tone. Technically, a breakout above 1.1706 could open room for recovery, while support at 1.1589 remains pivotal.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3494/1.3536

· Support: 1.3358/1.3316

Cable hovers near 1.3400, consolidating after failing to clear the 1.3450 EMA barrier. The short-term bias remains constructive while above 1.3358, but repeated rejection at 1.3450 could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.3358–1.3316 demand zone. If bulls regain momentum, a break above 1.3450 may open the way to 1.3494–1.3536, confirming a shift in market tone.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 151.32/151.78

· Support: 150.30/149.83

The pair trades near 150.90, with bulls eyeing the 151.32–151.78 resistance band. A breakout above this zone could unleash momentum toward 152.00+, especially if U.S. yields stay firm. However, repeated rejection here risks a reversal, pulling the pair back to 150.30 or even deeper toward 149.83, as traders weigh BoJ’s hawkish signals against fiscal expansion concerns.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 57.27/57.48

· Support: 56.38/56.18

WTI settled at $57.52, while Brent closed near $61.01, both at five-month lows. IEA oversupply warnings and looming Trump fuel the bearish tone–Putin talks that cloud demand outlook. Technically, prices hover near 56.60, with resistance at 57.27–57.48 capping rebounds. Failure to reclaim that zone risks a deeper slide toward 56.38–56.18, while only a firm break higher would ease selling pressure.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4403/4427

· Support: 4306/4283

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 53.52/54.00

-Support: 51.06/50.46

Gold rebounded above $4,360, refreshing highs at $4,381 as Fed rate cut bets and the prolonged U.S. shutdown lifted safe-haven demand. Technically, the uptrend remains intact with support at $4,306–4,283, and bulls eye a potential breakout toward $4,403–4,427 if momentum holds.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46904/47051

· Support: 46418/46269

The Dow Futures surged 1.12% to 46,706, boosted by bank and industrial gains as earnings eased credit concerns. Technically, the index is testing resistance at 46,904, with momentum suggesting a possible breakout. Support rests near 46,418, and sustained strength could pave the way toward 47,200.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25309/25427

· Support: 24936/24820

The NAS100 jumped 1.37%, powered by record highs in Apple and a 1.6% gain in semiconductors. On the chart, price broke above 24,936 and is eyeing resistance near 25,309. If momentum holds, a retest of higher levels looks likely, though dips back to 24,936 could provide fresh support.

BTC        

· Resistance: 112739/114187

· Support: 108319/106497

Bitcoin rebounded above $111K despite $1.23B ETF outflows, with whales accumulating against retail selling. Technically, the rebound is testing a key trendline near $112.7K; failure to break above $113K–115K could trigger a bearish reversal toward $108K, while a decisive breakout would open room for recovery momentum.

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