Hi all, I am learning forex right now and I am wondering how much does the market change year to year. If I create a bot that gives me 100% return over the last 12 months with very little drawdown is that good enough to implement it? I ask because I am trying to build a strategy right now but I am testing it over many years of data. What I find is some years are amazing, some are horrible, others break even. I can tweak things to get an overall positive result but then I am left with long patches of little to no growth and the great years are only Okay.
So I guess what I am asking is how much effort should I put into building a strategy that beats and market for the past 10 years? Or is it best to find what works now(past 12-6 months) and be ready to develop something new if the market changes?
Example: If you found out that for the past 6 months 85% of long trades placed at 5pm New York time turned profit would you roll with that? Or ignore it, as it didn't work 7+ months ago.
The market is always changing - Thats why theres no EA in the world with confirmed great live account performance that spans more than 12 months.
Youd be better off taking the time to learn about what moves the markets outside of the charts. I.e. Fundmaentals - use them to choose pair and direction on any given day and then use a technical method to manage that decision.
HOLY GRAIL: Fundamental Analysis to chose your pairs/direction, Technical Entry/SL/TP for consistent Management of those decisions
Are there benefits of doing fundamental analysis if you trade on low time frames. Say 1hour or even 5minutes? Can you really tell the direction of a single day from fundamental sources? I understand how watching interest rates, employment numbers, inflation, etc, can give you a good idea of where money is going in the market longish term. However I don't know of any sources that can tell you the direction of one particular day. An hourly chart can trend down for days in a weekly uptrend. Unless you are talking about trading news releases I'm confused how fundamentals affect very low time frames with enough accuracy to trade on. Sure you could trade with 200+ pip stops but then you are basically trading the Daily charts while looking at the hourly.
If we speak about trend changes, then it happens couple of time per week. Here we have to take into account timeframe which we're going to consider. If we look at them 15m timeframe, then we can state that trend changes couple of time per week. If we look at M1 timeframe, then trends change there couple of time per day. As for the global timeframe like D1, then trends can keep their position up to half of year or the whole year. As for the whole market, then it rarely changes its direction, only in case of serious situations like it was with covid-19 pandemic in the very beginning.
There is no specific horizon to which a trader should earn knowledge. So, traders should grow their knowledge by reading e-books, video tutorials and considering other related aspects. Traders should take these issues under their considerations and refine their trading strategies regularly.
The forex market is always volatile and changes happen often. You just have to know the ongoing and upcoming trends in connection with the currency pairs you trade with. I just trade based on what I see in the charts and then revise my strategy as and when required.