USDJPY Analysis: Beware of intraday false breakouts

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for FEB 21, 2025.

Fundamental Analysis of USDJPYUSDJPY Key Takeaways:

  • Japanese inflation data: Last week, Japan’s inflation accelerated faster than expected, and this week’s Tokyo CPI data is expected to reinforce the argument for more rate hikes.
  • Bank of Japan attitude: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that he was ready to intervene in the bond market to quell the surge in yields, which prompted the yen to pare its gains. Any follow-up actions in the coming weeks could lead to greater volatility in currency prices, even if the prospect of further appreciation remains unchanged.

Technical Analysis of USDJPY Daily and Hourly ChartsUSDJPY Daily Chart Insights

(USDJPY Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

  • Stochastic oscillator: The indicator falls to the oversold area and is about to send a long signal, suggesting that the short-term short force has subsided, and be alert to the possibility of a short-term rebound in the exchange rate.
  • Price Action: Yesterday’s exchange rate finally closed above Friday’s closing price, and the double cross star structure clarified the short-term bullish trend. Today’s exchange rate has a further rebound probability, and the target is 150.745 above.

USDJPY H1 Chart Analysis

(USDJPY H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

  • Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, and at the same time forms a top divergence with the exchange rate. Be alert to the priority decline and adjustment of USD/JPY during the Asian session.
  • Support price: The current exchange rate has touched the upper edge of the upward channel line, and there is short-term adjustment pressure. The key support price below focuses on the black 65-period moving average.

Pivot Indicator Insights for USDJPY

(USDJPY M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)

  • According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 149.35,
  • Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 149.35, first target 150.20, second target 150.60;
  • Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 149.35, first target 148.90, second target 148.50.

How to Navigate the Forex Market with Ultima MarketsTo navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey.

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets.

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets.

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets.

 Legal Documents

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius.

Copyright © 2025 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Ultima Markets
Tips: STP, ECN, Cent
Regulation: FCA (UK), CySEC (Cyprus), FSCA (South Africa), FSC (Mauritius)
read more
The labour market did not scare the Fed

The labour market did not scare the Fed

The Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and Hassett is unlikely to accelerate the Fed's cycle. The yen is concerned about the carry trade, while the ECB breathed a sigh of relief.
FxPro | 2h 56min ago
ATFX Market Outlook 17th December 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th December 2025

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest level in more than four years. U.S. equities ended mixed on Tuesday: the Nasdaq rebounded to close higher, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell, dragged down by healthcare and energy stocks. The Dow dropped 0.62%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.244%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.23%.
ATFX | 8h 23min ago
Markets Brace for Tonight’s U.S. NFP Report

Markets Brace for Tonight’s U.S. NFP Report

Federal Reserve official John Williams said the policy has moved from “mildly restrictive” toward “neutral,” and expects inflation to ease next year. U.S. equities closed lower on Monday as investors positioned ahead of a heavy data week and assessed reports on potential Fed Chair candidates, along with policymakers’ comments for clues on the rate outlook.
ATFX | 1 day ago
ECB, BoE, and BoJ take different paths

ECB, BoE, and BoJ take different paths

Trump pushes for more Fed rate cuts, while no changes are expected from the ECB until 2027.The BoE is concerned about the weak economy, while the yen has become a plaything for carry traders.
FxPro | 2 days ago
Yen Gains Strength Ahead of Crucial Bank of Japan Meeting

Yen Gains Strength Ahead of Crucial Bank of Japan Meeting

The Japanese yen strengthened on Monday, approaching 155 per dollar, to reach its highest level in over a week. This appreciation reflects heightened investor anticipation ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) pivotal monetary policy meeting on Friday.
RoboForex | 2 days ago
USD Firms Ahead of Fed as Oil Slips and Yen Recovers | 10th December 2025

USD Firms Ahead of Fed as Oil Slips and Yen Recovers | 10th December 2025

Markets traded cautiously ahead of the Fed decision, keeping the USD firm above 99. WTI fell below $58.50 as Iraq’s oilfields resumed operations. USD/CAD edged toward 1.3850, EUR/USD stayed under 1.1650, and the Yen recovered slightly on safe-haven flows and BoJ–Fed divergence. Traders await Fed and BoC signals for the next major moves.
Moneta Markets | 7 days ago