“Could we see another global crisis of this type in the future? The bursting of a bubble would have to lead to a sufficiently large wealth loss. An obvious candidate is the bond bubble; and another - perhaps in the future if the corresponding bubble continues to grow - is the Bitcoin.”
... A bubble or not? The Bitcoin debate goes on and on. Some claim it's a bubble. Others say it isn't. Still, others say it can never be a bubble.
The theory of money thesis implies that everyone will want to own bitcoins. At best, that's quite a leap of faith. We've heard the same argument regarding gold countless times. The argument is along the lines of 'If people just put 2% of their assets in gold, it will hit $10,000.' Bitcoin supposedly will hit $1,000,000 when everyone gets in.
So what? Is Bitcoin a commodity? The answer is yes. It has value if for no other reason that people attribute a value to it. Is Bitcoin money or does it function as money?
What happens at every bubble peak is the true believers come out with a cornucopia of reasons why things are not a bubble. So please don't say that Bitcoin cannot be a bubble simply because it has commodity value or because convoluted interpretations of a theory by George Soros say so. The main uses of Bitcoin are undoubtedly speculation, capital flight out of China, and money laundering. Remember the dotcom bubble when speculators were clamoring for leap options on a company called JDSU. The day those options became available marked the top. The fact that Bitcoin futures and ETFs are in the works are more signs of a speculative mania.
Do not be afraid and trade in cryptocurrencies. While there is such a possibility. But I think it was necessary to start earlier when the crypt was just start it's way. Now it really looks like a bubble that will burst soon (or not). Just don't invest too much of your money in it.
@RudolfSAnt@Skater I agree with you - to an extent. Speculation is fine: if you are happy to speculate on horses, football, casino, HYIPs and Ponzi Schemes, then cryptocurrencies is perfect for you. At least 'gambling' is a regulated industry: HYIPs, Ponzi Schemes and cryptocurrencies largely UNREGULATED.
CFTC chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo: 'reminded investors that virtual currencies technology is very new and introduced risks such as the “operational risks of unregulated and unsupervised trading platforms; cybersecurity risks of hackable trading platforms and virtual currency wallets; speculative risks of extremely volatile price moves; and fraud and manipulation risks through traditional market abuses of pump and dump schemes, insider trading, false disclosure, Ponzi schemes and other forms of investor fraud and market manipulation.” '
I differ from this, because the cryptomonedas are the fashionable financial product. In one year its value has multiplied by 17 and in the last three weeks, by two, turning into millionaires many geeks and digital enthusiasts who had invested years ago. No one knows how far it will go and neither do we; The only thing experts agree on is that investing in it now is a great opportunity.
Unlike fiat currencies, and even unlike commodities such as gold, which are quasi-monies with a 'reserve of value,' the supply of each currency is theoretically finite and usually known in advance. Blockchain technology keeps track of all existing Bitcoins, including who is the owner (or the ownership key, to be exact) and issues a fixed amount of Bitcoins every 10 minutes to a computer that has contributed a minimum amount of work to maintain the blockchain technology that acts as Bitcoin operating system. Currently, it is known exactly how many Bitcoins exist because each Bitcoin that was created is registered within the Bitcoin system. So if it's good to invest in cryptocurrencies.
The striking growth of bitcoin in recent weeks has not been enough to quell the doubts generated by a market that offers huge returns but is not subject to regulatory controls. However, the increase in its value has been overshadowed by the explosive rise of a much less known cryptocurrency.
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