EUR/USD
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1141 ieraksti
Jul 10, 2015 at 09:25
Yesterday the EURUSD initially rose but found enough selling pressure at 1.1097 to give all its gains back to the market and closed in the red slightly below the open of the day, creating a doji candle pattern. Today we might see another attempt in the bullish side with the following resistance levels to watch: 1.1158 (50 day moving average), 1.1185 Fibonacci level (23.6) and a daily resistance at 1.1236. Do not forget the Greek summit on Sunday the 12 of July.
"I trade to make money not to be right."
Biedrs kopš
675 ieraksti
Jul 10, 2015 at 12:44
The pair reported a decrease of 40 pips on Thursday and then the euro was trading at a price of 1.1035 at the end of the session. The trading took place within the final values 1.1122 and 1.0991. Overall prospects for the EUR / USD remains negative, and the levels at 1.1090 / 1.1105 - indicative for the dominance of the bears.
Biedrs kopš
372 ieraksti
Jul 10, 2015 at 17:29
If the Greek problem is resolved without a Grexit, then we could expect the euro to rally.
Biedrs kopš
1117 ieraksti
Jul 10, 2015 at 18:00
bewayopa posted:
If the Greek problem is resolved without a Grexit, then we could expect the euro to rally.
Hopefully Greece and the Eurozone will reach an agreement over the weekend.
Biedrs kopš
454 ieraksti
Jul 10, 2015 at 19:13
EUR/USD is bullish and broke the resistance level 1.1100, RSI is bullish, but the market is moving with cautious I think it is all due to the Greek crisis let's see what will happen in the weekend.
Biedrs kopš
413 ieraksti
Jul 10, 2015 at 20:16
EUR/USD reversed from the 1.1200 resistant level after climbing from 1.1061 today, Good profit by the end of the week.
Biedrs kopš
83 ieraksti
Jul 10, 2015 at 20:23
There will not be agreement to the Greek proposals so Euro across all pairs will gap down yet again.
Roland will consolidate then climb back to 1.11 level and then trade in another tight range.
Bulls and Bears are not trading the volume.
It will be Germany who will not agree as the reforms in Greece do not meet the rest of Europe's EU policies.p
Roland will consolidate then climb back to 1.11 level and then trade in another tight range.
Bulls and Bears are not trading the volume.
It will be Germany who will not agree as the reforms in Greece do not meet the rest of Europe's EU policies.p
Si eius XCIX% Ius ergo est Nefas - Sileo processus (If its 99% Right then it is Wrong - Restart the process)
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834 ieraksti
Jul 11, 2015 at 00:06
Latest news from Greece: ''The European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have given a positive assessment of the Greek government's request to start negotiations on a new bailout, a person close to the matter said.'' --Reuters
forex_trader_186239
Biedrs kopš
224 ieraksti
Jul 11, 2015 at 07:28
Who could only imagine it will be bullish a couple days ago ? 😄
Biedrs kopš
1117 ieraksti
Jul 11, 2015 at 12:54
We'll likely see a large upside gap on Monday on the EUR/USD chart and then the pair will continue to climb.
Biedrs kopš
724 ieraksti
Jul 11, 2015 at 13:18
(labots Jul 11, 2015 at 13:19)
Look009 posted:Who could actually imagine Greece WOULDNT resolve this? I mean seriously. I actually posted live in other forum forexfactory many days ago. I posted long when everyone was so period and worried that EURUSD would tank 2000 pips, you can read the thread from JULY 5 onward. Not only that but posted my lot size which I went in with. July 5, 2015 bought .2 EURUSD. Doesn't matter what is in hindsight, trading is not hindsight. All you do is do whatever you do that makes you put on a trade in either direction then follow that, know where you get out, that's it. You must not let BS news put you in fear of a trade. The ones who seem like they are just 'gambling' when everyone else is one way or scared to trade can sometimes be the one who makes the most from sharp reversals such as this. I dunno, whatever works for you. I make money off my own so I don't really give a shit about anyone else.
Who could only imagine it will be bullish a couple days ago ? 😄
forex_trader_186239
Biedrs kopš
224 ieraksti
Jul 11, 2015 at 18:28
Hi FXtrade2010, thank you for sharing your thoughts... Interesting !
Biedrs kopš
42 ieraksti
Jul 12, 2015 at 06:29
Nothing is certain right now - markets rise on hope and fall on reality pretty often so I wouldn't consider a Greek deal a certainty.
The amounts are relatively small - Greece is not a big player.
If Greece gives too much then the already hard pressed Greek people will see it as a betrayal by their government.
Euro-zone and in particular German public support for relaxation of Greek terms is at a low making this a political face saving exercise rather than a financial one.
However much the German and Greek leaders may want a deal, they want to stay in office more - therefore the Euroland will not accept a haircut on the Greek debt and will demand increased austerity a price the Greek leaders cannot afford to pay.
It reminds me of Lehman Brothers in 2008 then 1 huge name had to fail - now I believe that if Euroland is to survive at least for a few more years then one county will fail and alas that will more than likely be Greece.
Of course without political union the EU will fail eventually as sure as the sun rises every day.
So if I had to make a prediction for Eur/Usd on Monday - I would say a gap lower of 100 pips as hopes fade or the announcement of a delay and yet more meetings.
Sean
The amounts are relatively small - Greece is not a big player.
If Greece gives too much then the already hard pressed Greek people will see it as a betrayal by their government.
Euro-zone and in particular German public support for relaxation of Greek terms is at a low making this a political face saving exercise rather than a financial one.
However much the German and Greek leaders may want a deal, they want to stay in office more - therefore the Euroland will not accept a haircut on the Greek debt and will demand increased austerity a price the Greek leaders cannot afford to pay.
It reminds me of Lehman Brothers in 2008 then 1 huge name had to fail - now I believe that if Euroland is to survive at least for a few more years then one county will fail and alas that will more than likely be Greece.
Of course without political union the EU will fail eventually as sure as the sun rises every day.
So if I had to make a prediction for Eur/Usd on Monday - I would say a gap lower of 100 pips as hopes fade or the announcement of a delay and yet more meetings.
Sean
market nobility
Biedrs kopš
42 ieraksti
Jul 13, 2015 at 06:26
Continuing on from the theme above it is clear now that trouble lies ahead for the Euro zone. The possible fracturing of Franco-German relations and )irrespective of the outcome now) a Greece that will sooner or later have to leave the Euro. Why? - well the new conditions will deny any chance of Greece paying of its debt mountain and social unrest will not help - haircuts will never be acceptable to other EU members. Maybe best take the break from the Euro and just let it become permanent - that way you could get some financial help towards exit.
To the EUR/USD - last weekend we saw the pair dropping in to the 1.09 regions and here we are now in a much more dire situation at 1.1128... Need I say more - when the dust settles the pair has only one way to go - and that is south and south quickly - look for a test of last week's lows as soon as tomorrow unless by some miracle a form of words can be arrived at that appeases the markets.
Though the form of words may have to be prefaced with someone rubbing a lamp and a Genie granting 3 wishes
1. Make our debt mountain disappear
2, Help us collect taxes
3, Could a small tactical nuclear device be dropped on the Germans politicians (said in jest of course)
Anyway off to shot the pair - any other takers?
Sean
To the EUR/USD - last weekend we saw the pair dropping in to the 1.09 regions and here we are now in a much more dire situation at 1.1128... Need I say more - when the dust settles the pair has only one way to go - and that is south and south quickly - look for a test of last week's lows as soon as tomorrow unless by some miracle a form of words can be arrived at that appeases the markets.
Though the form of words may have to be prefaced with someone rubbing a lamp and a Genie granting 3 wishes
1. Make our debt mountain disappear
2, Help us collect taxes
3, Could a small tactical nuclear device be dropped on the Germans politicians (said in jest of course)
Anyway off to shot the pair - any other takers?
Sean
market nobility
Biedrs kopš
271 ieraksti
Jul 13, 2015 at 07:47
Unanimous deal reached? Probably this market at least is not happy with that. If that is true a major move southwards coming sooner or later.
antariks1@
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675 ieraksti
Jul 13, 2015 at 08:50
Extremely volatile session recorded the euro against the dollar on Friday. After all the trade concluded in favor of the single currency. The start was given at a price of 1.1034 as bullish sentiment dominated. A powerful upward momentum was recorded around noon when currencies peaked for the day at 1.1214 and so did test of resistance at 1.1240. However, the pair failed to overcome these levels and finished a course of 1.1144. Although the future direction depends mainly on the development of the crisis in Greece, short-term expectations are in favor of the euro.
Biedrs kopš
1141 ieraksti
Jul 13, 2015 at 09:03
On Friday session the EURUSD rose running into the 50-day moving average and closed in the green near the high of the day but below the 50-day moving average. The Greek drama “ended” this Monday morning although Greece has until Wednesday to pass the new proposals through parliament before negotiations for a bailout can begin.
"I trade to make money not to be right."
Biedrs kopš
42 ieraksti
Jul 13, 2015 at 09:47
The morning wakes to an agreement in words - but to even tougher terms that the Greek people had rejected in the referendum.
That would point to a couple of possible outcomes - a mass rejection of the Greek government due to a sense of betrayal.
However even before that - loads of legislation need to be passed by the Greek Parliament. It's a great opportunity for a rebellion and a vote of no confidence in the current Greek government an then elections and the saga could start again.
Anyway the pair dropped nicely on the news which reinforces that there should not be a 'shout of joy' and that this is just a first step on a pond with a very thin ice surface.
Expect loads of volatility over the next few days
Sean
That would point to a couple of possible outcomes - a mass rejection of the Greek government due to a sense of betrayal.
However even before that - loads of legislation need to be passed by the Greek Parliament. It's a great opportunity for a rebellion and a vote of no confidence in the current Greek government an then elections and the saga could start again.
Anyway the pair dropped nicely on the news which reinforces that there should not be a 'shout of joy' and that this is just a first step on a pond with a very thin ice surface.
Expect loads of volatility over the next few days
Sean
market nobility
Biedrs kopš
42 ieraksti
Jul 13, 2015 at 09:48
FXWES posted:
Extremely volatile session recorded the euro against the dollar on Friday. After all the trade concluded in favor of the single currency. The start was given at a price of 1.1034 as bullish sentiment dominated. A powerful upward momentum was recorded around noon when currencies peaked for the day at 1.1214 and so did test of resistance at 1.1240. However, the pair failed to overcome these levels and finished a course of 1.1144. Although the future direction depends mainly on the development of the crisis in Greece, short-term expectations are in favor of the euro.
Good morning @FXWES I have to ask where do you see the short term bullish sentiment for the Euro.
BTW I have no position on it as I closed out my Short earlier - so here is a unbiased view...
Fundamentally it is weaker then the USD - as full effects of Quantitative Easing are not yet seen - also the US will raise Fed Funds well before we see the ECB move.
Its not just my thoughts UBS analysts are predicting parity within the year based on fundamentals
Technically on Friday we saw a momentum based relief move purely based on the potential for good Greek news. The technical picture can be more clearly shown here https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2015/07/10/dailyclassics_eur-usd.html
The technical forecast here is for EUR/USD at 1.04
But at least we can take comfort in the 'resolution' of the Greek crisis which of course will inject a ton of confidence into the pair. Do you realise what just happened this morning? The Greek people are now more screwed (technical term) than ever. What we saw was a splintering of Europe and what was an economic invasion of Greece. If the people do not rise up and if the parliament do allow the required laws to be passed - The Greeks will face 20 years or misery. More likely scenario - still a Greek exit posibly backed by Russian monies to gain them a warm sea port. The Greek issue is only starting today!
So if you are bullish on any level well I admire your optimism. But please don't fall into the trap of posting something to back up a position you may have in the market. If everyone on this site was to explode the multi-trillion FX market wouldn't hear the bang for months - we are just small parasites trying to grab a few crumb :)
Sean
market nobility
forex_trader_186239
Biedrs kopš
224 ieraksti
Jul 13, 2015 at 11:05
I convinced EUR/USD is one of the best instruments to trade, there is a good compromise between spreads volatility and reaction to news. The only thing is that trading should be at least 70 % technical and on a relatively short term (several hours).
