it should probably stay high and even continue up on hopes for a production freeze in Doha 17. April. As this is pretty unlikely with Irans refusal to stop raising the production, and Saudi-arabias statement that they will only agree if all agree, we will then see a sharpe drop. A comitment largely kept a float based on the oil ministers of Venezuela, Nigeria and Ecuador.
IEA rapport out, while demand is up by 80.000, overproduction is still 250.000. The expansion of Shaybah oilfield is estimated to increase Saudi production by 250.000 by July (financial times two days ago). I see crude back below 40$ in a month unless some other OPEC countries cut production. Saudi arabia is likely not going to adjust down the production because of the IPO of Saudi Aramco.
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