By the end of 2021, only China will return to the pre-crisis level of large economies, according to McKinsey and Oxford Economics. Global GDP will reach the level of the fourth quarter of 2019 in the third quarter of 2022, while the US GDP in the first quarter and the eurozone in the third quarter of 2023 (all estimates assume an error of plus or minus one quarter). I think that we will still remember very long about this time of difficult changes.
To date, there is no exact recipe for resuming the economy. The soap bubble burst. This has been predicted for a long time. It’s just not everyone understood it yet. Time will tell. In two years, I think a lot will change in that order.
he crisis of 2020 will surely go down in history. After all, this is probably the first time in the world economy when production, financial markets, and consumer demand for goods and services collapsed simultaneously. All previous crises have developed in a different way: first, one thing fell (such as the mortgage market in the United States in 2007), and a few months later, the problems spread to related sectors of the economy. Another distinctive feature of the current economic downturn is the speed of its development: it took only a couple of months for the whole world to understand that very difficult times are ahead of us. And few people can say with certainty how big the economic losses will eventually be, as the coronavirus pandemic — the main cause of the crisis-continues to spread.
The international monetary Fund expects the world economy, which grew by 3% last year, to contract by the same amount this year. Growth will resume in 2021, and according to the IMF forecast, it will be quite fast.
Meanwhile, for the Euro zone economy in 2020, the IMF predicts a decline of 7.5%, which will also be replaced by rapid growth in 2021.
A similar situation will occur in the United States, where 30 million people have already lost their jobs.
Growth in the dynamic Asian economy will slow to 1% this year, while China's GDP shrank by an unprecedented 7% in the first quarter.
Oil prices have become more volatile than ever before. The cost of North sea Brent oil fell to $ 26 per barrel, and the cost of the American brand WTI in April went into negative values.
Against the background of the problems of the traditional economy, businesses built on Internet platforms are thriving. So, shares of Amazon jumped by 27%, Netflix-by 29%, and the popular video conferencing platform Zoom - by 130%.
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