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Not one system or EA here is worth putting real money into

conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 11:05
23 ieraksti
My title says it all.
The vast majority of systems and EAs on this site are rubbish. There may be some good ones that I havnt found, but Im not going to spend any more time trying to find them.

In general, the results are of most systems here are driven by one or more of the following:
1. Backtested on demos only (anyone can generate great results with backtests)
2. Manipulated (i.e. adding and subtracting deposits from the account or hiding trades. I noticed discrepancies in many of the figures)
3. Manipulated to gain high win/loss % by using horrendous drawdown exposure and/or by averaging down. Total system failure awaits those that practice this. Its not a matter of if, but when.
4. Or just plainly falsifying trades
5. Using scalping backtests to make small pip gains on large #s of trades that do not take into account slippage and fees (and/or by manipulating/shaving points from the spread).

In short, this site is a total waste of my time. I cant even search by specific criteria such as a combination of the following:
drawdown, profitability, average $ win to average $ loss and win/loss %

What a waste of my time.
deysmacro
Aug 08 2013 at 11:54
275 ieraksti
I understand though you just 21 hours ago registered here, so it does make sense. 😝
Past experience usually helps present self
msuhaimi2007
Aug 08 2013 at 13:09
38 ieraksti
Yeah... agree with deysmacro... take your time searching... eventually you will find it... or perhaps, you should trade yourself eh...
conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 14:08
23 ieraksti
Im open to being proven wrong. If you know of systems that generate some profit (and not those ridiculous 100% + returns per month that no one believes), manage drawdowns and have an average win > average loss, then let me know.
FXdiversified
Aug 08 2013 at 14:08
30 ieraksti
I think long term registration at my fxbook might not replace market knowledge but ... conorp... did you expect a formula how to make x% every month? Well, you might get it... it is like always a question of risk... the risk level for x% a month is the same here as elsewhere..... So you might waste your time all your way up and down the miracles of portfoliomanagement :-)
conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 15:15
23 ieraksti
Thanks diversified. Im aware of issues relating to risk. From my perspective, I will look at any system that does the following in order of importance for assessing it
1. Manages risk (more important than anything else)
2. Makes more $ per trade than it loses per trade
3. Makes profit
4. win/loss % (this is the least important stat, but still needs to be calculated in combination with the avg win $ and avg loss $)

But, my real point is that most of the systems here purporting to be huge winners and have massive win% are either bogus or seriously flawed. All will implode or fail over time. You cannot beat proven facts. A superb win% is 65% of trades. Even maintaining this level with an edge is very difficult. The key is to have your winners larger than your losers. This will allow you to go into periods where your performance drops below 50% and still have the chance to either break even or make a small profit.

To be honest, I know what Im talking about. But I actually didnt come on this site looking for a system to buy. I was pointed here by a CTA who wanted me to look on this site. However, when I did start to look through the site, the lack of any way to sort or find or filter systems really started to get to me. I had to click on each one individually to find out that they were all shockingly bad. I wasted hours looking at rubbish systems and then finally posted this thread.

Here is the reality of trading.
-If you have no idea which way the market is going and choose a direction at random, then you will have a 50% chance of being right. However, you wont necessarily know that immediately.
- The question therefore is how much risk are you willing to take to find out if you are right? A robust enough risk management system could bring your win % down from 50% to perhaps low 40s (for arguments sake lets say 42%). All this is assuming that you dont have an edge over anyone else (By the way, its been proven that most indicators have about a 50% probability of giving a correct signal - therefore these will not necessarily give you an edge).
- The only way then to make sure that you can come out with a profit at the end while at the same time managing risk, is to ensure that your profit on each winning trade is greater than your loss on each losing trade.

In reality, a good trader should be able to maintain a > 50% win rate (his edge being experience and knowledge of market behavior) and also have his 2:1 reward to risk per trade.

Scott Bresee (sbresee)
Aug 08 2013 at 16:04
53 ieraksti
How long have you traded and what is your average rate of return per year?
Only take what the market will let you have, and Never accept a loss!
Scott Bresee (sbresee)
Aug 08 2013 at 16:06
53 ieraksti
How long have you traded, and what is your rate of return per year?
Only take what the market will let you have, and Never accept a loss!
mmuller
Aug 08 2013 at 16:30
26 ieraksti
Hi conorp! I agree to your principles on assessing a system.

It's possible to use search engine with specific criteria to compare systems/track records of users here.
Just click 'systems' on the main menu and you'll find it...

I myself try to trade with R:R ratio you described, it's of course easier said than done. My account(s) is quite close to your requirements, although I had to split it into 2 myfxbook accounts, because my of the change in my broker OANDA division
from US to Europe..


https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mmuller/invest/255170
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mmuller/invest2/538576

-Mika
Adrian Matusiak (adrian8891)
Aug 08 2013 at 16:45
696 ieraksti
Stupidity... If You dont belive in any EA here then maybe try to make Your own, or like one used said : trade manually. Of course if You look at risk, maybe one suitable thing for You are bonds?

Sorry but people like You makes me laugh...why? You want millons without any risk of loss.

In concluson: B-O-N-D-S.
PAMM MANAGER // Professional Fund Manager
conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 16:50
23 ieraksti
I have traded for 5 years. At the beginning In the first year I blew out 2 accounts. Then I stopped and started again by paper trading and trying out different strategies. It took me 2 years to have the confidence to start trading again. Now, I have a 60k futures account. I make anywhere from $200 (low) to $10k (high) per week. My average is $2800 per week. I have losing days, but no losing weeks in the last year. I did have losing weeks in what I would call my first year as a proper trader.

- I trade 2 contracts each time in oil and gold and 4 contracts in the E-mini (I wouldnt have all those trades on at the same time)
- I look for a minimum of 2x my risk (preferably 3x or greater).-
- My stop is always always less than my target. I take the first contract off at 2x my risk and move my stop on 2nd contract to break even.
- The last contract I leave as a runner until my target is reached, the end of the day or stopped out. My target is the daily ATR based upon the low (or high) of the day. For example, Crude Oils average trading range for the last 10 days is $1.76 and todays high was 104.96. So, my target if Im short would be $103.20 (104.96 minus 1.76) or the nearest support/resistance to that point or 102.50 or 102. You have to watch the action around those round numbers too.

Occasionally I will exit the trade myself for various reasons such as the fed if I havnt got a good buffer of profit.
conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 17:05
23 ieraksti
@adrian8891
I take risks, but they are calculated risks not stupid ones. You must know pretty much where you will be exiting a trade BEFORE you take the trade. If my stop point is too far away from my entry point (i.e. my target is not at least 2x my stop) then I refuse the trade.

Its not about how much risk you are taking by itself, but how much risk you are taking to get your reward. The risk you are taking MUST be worth it otherwise wait for a better setup.
superscalper
Aug 08 2013 at 17:13
119 ieraksti
adrian8891 posted:
Stupidity... If You dont belive in any EA here then maybe try to make Your own, or like one used said : trade manually. Of course if You look at risk, maybe one suitable thing for You are bonds?

Sorry but people like You makes me laugh...why? You want millons without any risk of loss.

In concluson: B-O-N-D-S.

You have right. This kind of guy make me laugh too. Blablabla always blablabla
Scott Bresee (sbresee)
Aug 08 2013 at 17:30
53 ieraksti
I did make my own EA on my set of rules I created, but still I did not like relying on a computer that could not have gut feelings like us humans. And Yes my EA was set for large DD's, because I believe you need to give the markets room to breath, and not jumping ship. Yes the EA did similar to what I did manually, but it took the fun out of trading for me, so I stopped using it!
Only take what the market will let you have, and Never accept a loss!
conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 17:39
23 ieraksti
large drawdowns are relative Scott. They may be large if you compare them to the lack of potential profit in the trade you are taking. But, in general, you should never risk more than 2% of your capital on any one trade. If you are risking more than 2%, then you need to downsize your bet so that if your stop is hit, it will only cost you that.

My daily loss limit is $600. If I lose this in one day, I get up and walk away until tomorrow. This will give me 100 wrong trades in a row before I go broke. Lol.

By the way, I know I posted it after the fact, but did you see what price oil bottomed at today? Thats right $102.21. Its a pity I didnt get to write my post earlier. Statistically, there is no point in chasing more than what the market will give you.
Scott Bresee (sbresee)
Aug 08 2013 at 17:50
53 ieraksti
I trade many small trades which add up to 3.5% of my total balance, except I do not set stop loss on any trade and if it goes south, oh well, it always comes back around and picks it up at a gain somewhere down the road. This is how I have not taken many losses over the past 7 years. Call me stupid, but it works for me!!
Only take what the market will let you have, and Never accept a loss!
ars2010
Aug 09 2013 at 06:24
29 ieraksti
most of them are crap! but I saw a few Trader that have good system! and to be honest I don't have right to tell which good and which bad! I am just saying that not all system in myfxbook are bad.

even if, I have a good system! still, I have no right to underestimate other trader, cause who knows someday my system could fail!
just be nice to everyone, and so we could live in peace and harmony lol 😁
Dear all Trader! Good night and sleep well ;)
deysmacro
Aug 09 2013 at 06:26
275 ieraksti
@conorp

So, in conclusion, you want to find a long term EA? Well, that is what we are trying to achieve too. The real problem and the real culprit is when you are making money and broker will start to 'look after you'. 😎
Past experience usually helps present self
FXdiversified
Aug 09 2013 at 08:34
30 ieraksti
@conorp

We probably might agree on the RM principles. Not sure how you manage to get this stable and from my experience above average :-) p/l but congratulations. Coming from slightly different trading environment, I do not mind to learn new approaches.
I do not care if EAs are a good or bad thing.... they may generally deliver a new perspective.


@sbresee
Even a no s/l approach might be successful, but it is definitely not good for all assets and time might be the critical component. Our life cycle might put some restrictions in place.


This bond issue, whats wrong with bonds?




FXdiversified
Aug 09 2013 at 08:35
30 ieraksti
deysmacro posted:
@conorp

So, in conclusion, you want to find a long term EA? Well, that is what we are trying to achieve too. The real problem and the real culprit is when you are making money and broker will start to 'look after you'. 😎

Just a small question: why should broker do anything negativ regarding you P/L? Just for a broker who is paid by volumes traded, it should make some economic sense... i guess.
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