Profit / loss analysis and trading talks

Working with your psychology and tracking states is as important as doing market analysis, because every trader is part of the market and as soon as you begin to understand your psychology, you will be able to correctly assess the psychology of the market.

MarcellusLux posted:

Luigi_gi223 posted:
By the way, Marcellus, I wanted to clarify with you. Is it okay that I start thinking about trading analysis before I start trading? I mean I try to see the trading result in advance and analyze my possible mistakes.

You shouldn't overdo it, all in good time and advance expectations can only destroy your trading plan. Try to move on to searching and assessing possible scenarios and risks instead of false expectations.

You make a valid point. I’m trying to. But I always want more... 😁

Long-term analysis of the EUR/JPY shows a clearly visible divergence, each new high of the current uptrend reaches lower values on the MACD. However on the monthly chart the clear convergence is formed and the key level of 170.00 (which was previously reached in 2008) is seen as a target for further growth.
The distribution of indicators suggests that:

- Before a new attempt to reach 170.00 within the current global trend, the correction is highly possible.
- On lower time frames the market will test the current local maximum of 165.350
- In case of 165.350 confidently broken, then the divergence will probably continue and the fall will be started from the level 170.00
- If the local maximum is not broken and the price begins to fall, then it is probably the start of the correction, which could continue to 162.700 and lower to the daily EMA 100 and key support 160.300.

In this situation, it is also important to note that on the four-hour chart the price level is paced higher than EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, which is a signal of further growth. The marker levels to pay attention to in case of buy are: 165.00 and 165.350, in case of sell are: 163.500 (coinciding with the four-hour EMA 100) and 162.700 (in the area of influence of the EMA 200).
I will continue to monitor the situation on EUR/JPY and am going to enter the market to catch movements on the hourly and four-hour charts between the marker and key levels that I indicated.

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:
@MarcellusLux Could you tell more about post-trade analysis, how do you do it?

The is broad question for one post, so I will answer in general. If you want to know something specific, please post your questions.
After each trading session, I do a comprehensive analysis of closed trades. And according to a number of criteria, I decide what changes to make in the trading plan or trading system. That is, the result and conclusion after analysis can influence subsequent trades. The analysis that I am publishing is the initial stage: market analysis and preliminary assessment of effectiveness.

What criteria do you pay attention to?

I start with trading analysis according to the market state, this is what is published. Then I evaluate the trading effectiveness (also sometimes published). Now that I know what works well and what doesn't live up to expectations, I can adjust my strategy and trading plan.
At the next stage, I compare the previously obtained data and analysis with the current one and try to find regularities and patterns of mistakes and successful solutions.
After the market related analysis I move on to risk management and analyze information about risks during trading, whether my trades were safe and defended from losses enough. The trading system can then be adjusted again to reflect changes in risk management.
The final stage is the formation of a psychological portrait of the trading session, my behavior and reactions to events.

Thanks for the clarification! Could you specify which psychological factors, in your opinion, most affect trading outcomes?

Trading process can be influenced by the psychological state and each trader may have different reasons for destabilization. But basically I would note the following factors:
- fatigue from trading. Any trader knows that trading can be exhausting, which leads to the reducing of the mental resources.
- hesitation. It may be the result of temper or a feeling of insecurity acquired during trading after the past losses.
- over self-confidence. The situation is similar to hesitation but can be achieved through several, often random, profits.
- greed and anger. This is one of the most common problems for beginners, but it is also the simplest in my opinion, since it disappears with experience.

Great thanks for your answer. Fatigue. Can you share any tips on how to manage or mitigate trading fatigue effectively?

bardachok posted:

MarcellusLux posted:
EUR/USD
The trading analysis for today will consist of two parts (profit and loss). And I’ll start with a trade that was closed by stop loss on Wednesday EUR/USD with the drawdown of 1.26%.
My analysis and subsequent expectations were based on the fact that I saw a high probability of reaching the 1.10000 double top level in the coming hours and accordingly focused on short-term profits. It is important to note that this conclusion came true for now. When I entered the market, I understood the risk associated with the likely formation of a correction in a narrowing channel and therefore secured the trade with a stop loss. But unfortunately, I did not take into account the possibility of the 1.09870 level pressure, which turned out to be a key resistance. The opening of the trade was also justified by the fact that there was an increase after the correctional wave to the level of 1.09700. I believed that support would contribute to further growth. But I neglected the short-term MACD indicators, which could have confirmed a further decline, instead I paid attention first to the four-hour MACD and a clear buy signal. An inaccuracy that was decisive.

Can you explain how to draw similar charts and construct price outlook? Is there any theory apart from intuition?

The charts I post with profit/loss analysis is just visualization of trades I made, and a little bit technical indicators, there are no specific rules or theory. I just want other traders to understand my view and in my general case, when analysis is not published, I don't draw lines and arrows, etc. But if you mean the technical analysis, so yes this is provided according to the general theory of technical indicators and tools using and it's specification.

MarcellusLux posted:
Long-term analysis of the EUR/JPY shows a clearly visible divergence, each new high of the current uptrend reaches lower values on the MACD. However on the monthly chart the clear convergence is formed and the key level of 170.00 (which was previously reached in 2008) is seen as a target for further growth.
The distribution of indicators suggests that:

- Before a new attempt to reach 170.00 within the current global trend, the correction is highly possible.
- On lower time frames the market will test the current local maximum of 165.350
- In case of 165.350 confidently broken, then the divergence will probably continue and the fall will be started from the level 170.00
- If the local maximum is not broken and the price begins to fall, then it is probably the start of the correction, which could continue to 162.700 and lower to the daily EMA 100 and key support 160.300.

In this situation, it is also important to note that on the four-hour chart the price level is paced higher than EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, which is a signal of further growth. The marker levels to pay attention to in case of buy are: 165.00 and 165.350, in case of sell are: 163.500 (coinciding with the four-hour EMA 100) and 162.700 (in the area of influence of the EMA 200).
I will continue to monitor the situation on EUR/JPY and am going to enter the market to catch movements on the hourly and four-hour charts between the marker and key levels that I indicated.

Oh thank you Marcellus. I always pay attention to your analysis, I’m interested in how much it matches my analysis.
As for me, I would buy EUR/JPY now, without trying to grab something during the correction, for a long.

MarcellusLux posted:
Long-term analysis of the EUR/JPY shows a clearly visible divergence, each new high of the current uptrend reaches lower values on the MACD. However on the monthly chart the clear convergence is formed and the key level of 170.00 (which was previously reached in 2008) is seen as a target for further growth.
The distribution of indicators suggests that:

- Before a new attempt to reach 170.00 within the current global trend, the correction is highly possible.
- On lower time frames the market will test the current local maximum of 165.350
- In case of 165.350 confidently broken, then the divergence will probably continue and the fall will be started from the level 170.00
- If the local maximum is not broken and the price begins to fall, then it is probably the start of the correction, which could continue to 162.700 and lower to the daily EMA 100 and key support 160.300.

In this situation, it is also important to note that on the four-hour chart the price level is paced higher than EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, which is a signal of further growth. The marker levels to pay attention to in case of buy are: 165.00 and 165.350, in case of sell are: 163.500 (coinciding with the four-hour EMA 100) and 162.700 (in the area of influence of the EMA 200).
I will continue to monitor the situation on EUR/JPY and am going to enter the market to catch movements on the hourly and four-hour charts between the marker and key levels that I indicated.

The correction to 162.700 could be a solid entry point. That's what I would do.

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:

MarcellusLux posted:

Oscar555 posted:
@MarcellusLux Could you tell more about post-trade analysis, how do you do it?

The is broad question for one post, so I will answer in general. If you want to know something specific, please post your questions.
After each trading session, I do a comprehensive analysis of closed trades. And according to a number of criteria, I decide what changes to make in the trading plan or trading system. That is, the result and conclusion after analysis can influence subsequent trades. The analysis that I am publishing is the initial stage: market analysis and preliminary assessment of effectiveness.

What criteria do you pay attention to?

I start with trading analysis according to the market state, this is what is published. Then I evaluate the trading effectiveness (also sometimes published). Now that I know what works well and what doesn't live up to expectations, I can adjust my strategy and trading plan.
At the next stage, I compare the previously obtained data and analysis with the current one and try to find regularities and patterns of mistakes and successful solutions.
After the market related analysis I move on to risk management and analyze information about risks during trading, whether my trades were safe and defended from losses enough. The trading system can then be adjusted again to reflect changes in risk management.
The final stage is the formation of a psychological portrait of the trading session, my behavior and reactions to events.

Thanks for the clarification! Could you specify which psychological factors, in your opinion, most affect trading outcomes?

Trading process can be influenced by the psychological state and each trader may have different reasons for destabilization. But basically I would note the following factors:
- fatigue from trading. Any trader knows that trading can be exhausting, which leads to the reducing of the mental resources.
- hesitation. It may be the result of temper or a feeling of insecurity acquired during trading after the past losses.
- over self-confidence. The situation is similar to hesitation but can be achieved through several, often random, profits.
- greed and anger. This is one of the most common problems for beginners, but it is also the simplest in my opinion, since it disappears with experience.

Great thanks for your answer. Fatigue. Can you share any tips on how to manage or mitigate trading fatigue effectively?

On my experience the better way is to set strict trading hours and stick to them. Overtrading is often a fatigue trap. Take regular breaks and give yourself time to recharge.

Trading update.
It was a busy trading day and trading continues as you can see on my account page.
Despite the fact that I planned to actively trade EUR/JPY, the movement there was not as active and clear as I would like and at the moment the goals have not been achieved. But on GBP/JPY I got enough opportunities to buy in time and exit the market at the top, and after the correction began, sell and further increase profitability.
At the moment, the trades are under control and I expect the achievement of the set goals on EUR/JPY, as well as continued growth on NZD/USD after breaking through the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart and clearly crossing the MACD signal line. I expect the daily key EMA 200 level at 0.61000 to be reached in the near term.

MarcellusLux posted:
Trading update.
It was a busy trading day and trading continues as you can see on my account page.
Despite the fact that I planned to actively trade EUR/JPY, the movement there was not as active and clear as I would like and at the moment the goals have not been achieved. But on GBP/JPY I got enough opportunities to buy in time and exit the market at the top, and after the correction began, sell and further increase profitability.
At the moment, the trades are under control and I expect the achievement of the set goals on EUR/JPY, as well as continued growth on NZD/USD after breaking through the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart and clearly crossing the MACD signal line. I expect the daily key EMA 200 level at 0.61000 to be reached in the near term.

Excellent result. I keep an eye on the orders and hope that luck will be on your side on eur/jpy.

MarcellusLux posted:
Trading update.
It was a busy trading day and trading continues as you can see on my account page.
Despite the fact that I planned to actively trade EUR/JPY, the movement there was not as active and clear as I would like and at the moment the goals have not been achieved. But on GBP/JPY I got enough opportunities to buy in time and exit the market at the top, and after the correction began, sell and further increase profitability.
At the moment, the trades are under control and I expect the achievement of the set goals on EUR/JPY, as well as continued growth on NZD/USD after breaking through the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart and clearly crossing the MACD signal line. I expect the daily key EMA 200 level at 0.61000 to be reached in the near term.

How did you understand about nzd? Congratulations on your successful trade. I thought that it would not continue to go higher. But I’m still not sure about 0.6100, I think it will stop at the current maximum.

Oh there would be interesting to analyze trading on GBPJPY orders that were closed the other day.

Do you analyse unsuccessful trades as well? I find those to be the most insightful

Well I have other question. Is there any point in doing a trade analysis if you trade with a scalping robot? I just wondering about my trade.

Michel_Dubois posted:
Well I have other question. Is there any point in doing a trade analysis if you trade with a scalping robot? I just wondering about my trade.

In any case, you can evaluate the overall picture of trading efficiency.

Raven1209 posted:

Michel_Dubois posted:
Well I have other question. Is there any point in doing a trade analysis if you trade with a scalping robot? I just wondering about my trade.

In any case, you can evaluate the overall picture of trading efficiency.

Well I suppose that the overall picture of trading efficiency can only be seen by the increasing balance on the trading account. Analytics without results makes no sense, agree?

Raven1209 posted:

Michel_Dubois posted:
Well I have other question. Is there any point in doing a trade analysis if you trade with a scalping robot? I just wondering about my trade.

In any case, you can evaluate the overall picture of trading efficiency.

Can you give advice on how to analyze a large number of transactions? For example scalping strategy?
Where there is one trade I already roughly understand. But when are there many of them? Which method will be more effective?

If a trading system has a stable trading algorithm, then where do the losses come from?

WhiteWitcher posted:
Oh there would be interesting to analyze trading on GBPJPY orders that were closed the other day.

There are four successful trades were closed on GBP/JPY during the growth and following correction on April 8-9. The MACD indicated further growth, while the EMA lines became far below the price level on short-term and long-term time frames. Moreover, the key resistance at 192.130 was not strong enough to stop further breakout and growth.
I was counting on a more volatile rise to 193.500 and a sharp drop back to the level of the current price, but unfortunately, I had to trade fewer points and close buy trades earlier. After a successful long, I waited for the correction to begin and started short with the aim of falling to the key level 192.130 area. As you can see from my trading statement, these sell trades were also profitable.
As a final statement, I would like to note the dawdown during sell trades and the risk of further growth when the price reached 192.860. There are a few things I can take away from this situation:
- I will work on improving the exit from the market, because the buy profit could have been taken at the maximum level of 192.860.
- The good point is that I did not close the loss at the top, knowing that according to my data, a correction will follow.