Why 90% of retail traders fail...
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Nov 25, 2013 at 11:06
I think I will repost what I wrote,
' I seldom even talk with traders as they are sure that they are right and there has to be some gimmick to anything that proves them wrong.
What that means is that they will look at the data and say 'Oh yes, it is working now but it will crash and burn all your money' then they pat themselves on the back for seeing through an obvious deception and never learn why they are losing money. After all if they can't do it, it can't be done.'
You see, I have had this discussion before...
(By the way a martingale recovery trace looks nothing like a straight line)
Fun trading
Bob
' I seldom even talk with traders as they are sure that they are right and there has to be some gimmick to anything that proves them wrong.
What that means is that they will look at the data and say 'Oh yes, it is working now but it will crash and burn all your money' then they pat themselves on the back for seeing through an obvious deception and never learn why they are losing money. After all if they can't do it, it can't be done.'
You see, I have had this discussion before...
(By the way a martingale recovery trace looks nothing like a straight line)
Fun trading
Bob
where research touches lives.
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Nov 25, 2013 at 13:50
Lol - That blog DGilberto has written is spot on with how retail traders talk to each other on the forums lol.
Felotus - if you do work for a hedge fund, why are you wasting your time entertaining Bob with his amateur martingale system... I don't even know why you're on here wasting your time if you're working for a fund... lol.
(ridiculous conversations - facepalm).
Felotus - if you do work for a hedge fund, why are you wasting your time entertaining Bob with his amateur martingale system... I don't even know why you're on here wasting your time if you're working for a fund... lol.
(ridiculous conversations - facepalm).
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Nov 25, 2013 at 13:59
(labots Nov 25, 2013 at 14:07)
felotus posted:
...
We're a hedge fund and part of our activity is to bet against 'retail traders', we take the exact opposite directions of retail traders on the fx market....
Here you go: https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
Just go long what people are short and likewise for the opposites. Here you go for a new Hedge Fund fancy strategy free of charge!
I mean this could be a fun experiment 😁
A smooth sea never made a skillful sailor.
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Nov 25, 2013 at 18:17
From workinabox, 'entertaining Bob with his amateur martingale system..'
What amazes me is how people or systems can be labeled by someone who doesn't even bother to check out the program results or is to new to understand what he is talking about. The point of making those two links available was to have people open up the history tab and notice how there are currently 89 and 91 trades respectively and they were supposed to realize that “wow, they all closed for a profit. (I am aware of the two small losses, after all this is my test account that I use to make sure the code works like I want it to. The two small losses came about because my code that deals with the swap was off but is now fixed).
Martingales are a recovery system. If you always got the first trade right, there would be no need of any recovery system. Remember that to use a martingale, when you lose you double the next trade size. Looking at the history of those two links, can anyone find even one trade where it has doubled the size of the previous loss. No? So the first comment of Felotus only states clearly that he didn't bother to look at the data and is just shooting from the lip or he doesn't understand what he is seeing and can't bring himself to admit his limitations, or he is of the type to intentionally just say things to try to upset people in which case he is evil and will have to pay for the evil that he causes, it always come back to him that initiated it. However, I was expecting the attack, there is always one.
A straight line is indicative of a grid system. Grid as in mathematical, the stuff you learn in matrix algebra. This next link is not from a martingale either but it is a recovery system and you can see what the curve looks like on a typical recovery type algorithm.
Pegasus
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/pegasus/670938
Notice how this is not a straight line. Martingale and other recover type systems are not a straight line.
Lets make this even more difficult for master Felotus who thinks that to get a straight line you have to use a martingale system. The stated problem with a martingale is that the size of the trade grows too large and you margin out. Meet the Passive Income Generator which we call the PIG from the first initials of its name.
Look through the history of closed trades and you will see that the size of the trade never grow to be larger than .06 lots. You will also note that when you see a series of losses they all closed at the same time along with one or two that close for a profit. When you add all the profits and losses for each closing time, it is always in profit and the system averages over 2% a month.
Passive Income Generator P-I-G
http:www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/passive-income-generator/685841
These systems that are confusing the professional traders is called systemic trading systems. These systems were created to be used by a computer, no human could ever trade like these systems do. There are too many innovations to go over them here but if anyone really wants to know about this new way of trading that is not fundamental nor technical, you can find out more on the forex-assistant.com research website. You can not purchase any system from this sight as it is for research only.
I don't mind helping any new investor/trader that I can but I will not argue with those that are intentionally stupid and just want to argue to make themselves feel better because there is something in the world that they don't know about. I don't try to teach people how to become a trader, I teach people how to retire. I use only the safest systems available which means that we will make 12 to 24% a year not doubling your balance every 6 months. Risk and reward go hand in hand. Those programs that boast high returns often have an even higher risk associated with it. I only teach people how to automate their investments so they can get on with living life the way that they want, I don't have the patience to become some super trader nor the desire to argue with those that think that they already are.
There is a book on the subject of systemic systems called Robotic Trading. I know because I wrote it and will make this offer to anyone who wants to learn more about this third style of trading, I will loan you my copy if you will write a review for me. Good or bad isn't important, just a review. To get in on this offer, just write to [email protected] and ask for a free copy with the understanding that you will evaluate the book within a week or so.
Hope this small book or overly large post has helped someone,
Bob
What amazes me is how people or systems can be labeled by someone who doesn't even bother to check out the program results or is to new to understand what he is talking about. The point of making those two links available was to have people open up the history tab and notice how there are currently 89 and 91 trades respectively and they were supposed to realize that “wow, they all closed for a profit. (I am aware of the two small losses, after all this is my test account that I use to make sure the code works like I want it to. The two small losses came about because my code that deals with the swap was off but is now fixed).
Martingales are a recovery system. If you always got the first trade right, there would be no need of any recovery system. Remember that to use a martingale, when you lose you double the next trade size. Looking at the history of those two links, can anyone find even one trade where it has doubled the size of the previous loss. No? So the first comment of Felotus only states clearly that he didn't bother to look at the data and is just shooting from the lip or he doesn't understand what he is seeing and can't bring himself to admit his limitations, or he is of the type to intentionally just say things to try to upset people in which case he is evil and will have to pay for the evil that he causes, it always come back to him that initiated it. However, I was expecting the attack, there is always one.
A straight line is indicative of a grid system. Grid as in mathematical, the stuff you learn in matrix algebra. This next link is not from a martingale either but it is a recovery system and you can see what the curve looks like on a typical recovery type algorithm.
Pegasus
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/pegasus/670938
Notice how this is not a straight line. Martingale and other recover type systems are not a straight line.
Lets make this even more difficult for master Felotus who thinks that to get a straight line you have to use a martingale system. The stated problem with a martingale is that the size of the trade grows too large and you margin out. Meet the Passive Income Generator which we call the PIG from the first initials of its name.
Look through the history of closed trades and you will see that the size of the trade never grow to be larger than .06 lots. You will also note that when you see a series of losses they all closed at the same time along with one or two that close for a profit. When you add all the profits and losses for each closing time, it is always in profit and the system averages over 2% a month.
Passive Income Generator P-I-G
http:www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/passive-income-generator/685841
These systems that are confusing the professional traders is called systemic trading systems. These systems were created to be used by a computer, no human could ever trade like these systems do. There are too many innovations to go over them here but if anyone really wants to know about this new way of trading that is not fundamental nor technical, you can find out more on the forex-assistant.com research website. You can not purchase any system from this sight as it is for research only.
I don't mind helping any new investor/trader that I can but I will not argue with those that are intentionally stupid and just want to argue to make themselves feel better because there is something in the world that they don't know about. I don't try to teach people how to become a trader, I teach people how to retire. I use only the safest systems available which means that we will make 12 to 24% a year not doubling your balance every 6 months. Risk and reward go hand in hand. Those programs that boast high returns often have an even higher risk associated with it. I only teach people how to automate their investments so they can get on with living life the way that they want, I don't have the patience to become some super trader nor the desire to argue with those that think that they already are.
There is a book on the subject of systemic systems called Robotic Trading. I know because I wrote it and will make this offer to anyone who wants to learn more about this third style of trading, I will loan you my copy if you will write a review for me. Good or bad isn't important, just a review. To get in on this offer, just write to [email protected] and ask for a free copy with the understanding that you will evaluate the book within a week or so.
Hope this small book or overly large post has helped someone,
Bob
where research touches lives.
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Nov 25, 2013 at 20:57
Thalantas posted:felotus posted:
...
We're a hedge fund and part of our activity is to bet against 'retail traders', we take the exact opposite directions of retail traders on the fx market....
Here you go: https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
Just go long what people are short and likewise for the opposites. Here you go for a new Hedge Fund fancy strategy free of charge!
I mean this could be a fun experiment 😁
Yes, there's also MT4i, Alpari, Dukascopy etc. plenty of funds that have fx activities do that, some of them are smarter and own a forex brokerage company in order to have a clearer view of the retailers.
@ForexAssistant Stop raging, you write books that are supposed to help people make money online and have too-steady-to-be-true non-verified, non-audited and managed account-based returns. If you're profitable, stop wasting your time with 5$ books. No offence.
I work in a hedge fund.
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Nov 25, 2013 at 22:43
It's my time, I think I will retain the right to waist it as I think best. No offense taken and none meant, just a difference of opinion. Researchers have always had to contend with resistance to change to the status quo. Every new innovation has had its neigh sayers. The Wright brothers had people calling them liars and charlatans and were even attacked in the press. But they did learn to fly, and so did I. In 2008, during some of the worst market maladies in our life time, our first systemic system traded on IBFX (before FIFO) for 15 months, taking over 3,000 trades and lost only one trade for 8 cents when the internet failed. (Use VPS now days). That year we made over 300% profit. (yes, still have the monthly broker reports as proof) However, that was a fluke and will never happen again but the impressive part was how safe we were able to make it.
I reasoned that the problem with automated trading was that people were trying to make robots trade like humans do. The human systems were not all that great for humans and down right terrible for computers. However, computers have a lot of things that they do much better than humans, like math. So we got the idea to create a new trading system based on mathematics for the computer to use. OMG where we ever surprised. It worked wonderfully well, at least until the banks heard about it. Within 6 months from the time we went live the NFA announced the up coming restrictions on US broker called FIFO (first in first out) and no more hedging. The two trading strategies that made our system work. Nine month after that, our system would no longer work with US brokers.
After that, I step lightly. No one sees my live accounts anymore and I keep my account sizes small as to not get unwanted attention. And again I'm sorry but I am just tired of trying to explain things to jaded traders that think everyone is out to get them. I am using the sales to build my retirement portfolio then I am out of the game so I don't need any traders to even look at what we have created. I like creative discussion but that happens so rarely on these forums that I have just given up trying. I post for those that are just starting out, for those who could use a little help being profitable instead of the high risk gambling that has become associated with forex trading. We don't make a lot of money but what we do make, we keep. And that is our strategy, use computers and increase profits by cutting out the middleman.
Now everyone can see why we get attacked. If a computer program can create trades that are always profitable then they will stop giving their money to a hedge fund operator and do it themselves. Just like Turbo-Tax allows us to do our taxes ourselves instead of paying the tax preparers every year, automated investment systems allow the small investor to automate his income and stop supporting the hedge fund managers appetite for higher risk.
Here's my challenge, use any of our investor programs on a demo account for as long as you like, Rise will not work in the US but the Passive Income Generator will. No money needed, not even a credit card. Then see for yourself whether I have BSed anyone or not. No risk, just facts. Who's game?
Bob
I reasoned that the problem with automated trading was that people were trying to make robots trade like humans do. The human systems were not all that great for humans and down right terrible for computers. However, computers have a lot of things that they do much better than humans, like math. So we got the idea to create a new trading system based on mathematics for the computer to use. OMG where we ever surprised. It worked wonderfully well, at least until the banks heard about it. Within 6 months from the time we went live the NFA announced the up coming restrictions on US broker called FIFO (first in first out) and no more hedging. The two trading strategies that made our system work. Nine month after that, our system would no longer work with US brokers.
After that, I step lightly. No one sees my live accounts anymore and I keep my account sizes small as to not get unwanted attention. And again I'm sorry but I am just tired of trying to explain things to jaded traders that think everyone is out to get them. I am using the sales to build my retirement portfolio then I am out of the game so I don't need any traders to even look at what we have created. I like creative discussion but that happens so rarely on these forums that I have just given up trying. I post for those that are just starting out, for those who could use a little help being profitable instead of the high risk gambling that has become associated with forex trading. We don't make a lot of money but what we do make, we keep. And that is our strategy, use computers and increase profits by cutting out the middleman.
Now everyone can see why we get attacked. If a computer program can create trades that are always profitable then they will stop giving their money to a hedge fund operator and do it themselves. Just like Turbo-Tax allows us to do our taxes ourselves instead of paying the tax preparers every year, automated investment systems allow the small investor to automate his income and stop supporting the hedge fund managers appetite for higher risk.
Here's my challenge, use any of our investor programs on a demo account for as long as you like, Rise will not work in the US but the Passive Income Generator will. No money needed, not even a credit card. Then see for yourself whether I have BSed anyone or not. No risk, just facts. Who's game?
Bob
where research touches lives.
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Nov 26, 2013 at 05:48
well said Bob....
Geht Nich Gibt´s Nich
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Nov 26, 2013 at 08:30
@ForexAssistant That's a nice story.
I feel sorry for the guys who try to learn how to trade forex, come around your website or your post and learn wrong and misleading information.
Just for those guys:
- What you call systematic trading has been around for 25 years now.
- Most Hedge Fund have a systematic approach to the market, at least for a portion of their portfolio. We are a hedge fund based 100% on systematic strategies.
- Your story about the NFA seeing you and changing the regulation makes no sense at all. You should be insane to believe this is true. Hypothetically if it was true, you can open a fund or a managed account outside of the US.
- Your EAs will never be more performant than a team of 100 Phd analyzing the market.
- I have myself developed multiple systematic strategies, some of them still managing large amount of funds. And never in my life, I have heard of a guy who randomly created a mathematical algorithm and was 'OMG we where surprised'.
You don't just put up numbers and make some math equations, you're looking for a pattern, a market inefficiency, it takes you months before you find something that works and there's no reason why you would be surprised as it's the purpose of your researches.
You wrote 2 full A4 pages of text and yet you haven't explained the basics of your mathematical models.
A 'mathematical' model can be anything from volume equations to a RSI. Most systematic models are based on statistics rather.
I feel sorry for the guys who try to learn how to trade forex, come around your website or your post and learn wrong and misleading information.
Just for those guys:
- What you call systematic trading has been around for 25 years now.
- Most Hedge Fund have a systematic approach to the market, at least for a portion of their portfolio. We are a hedge fund based 100% on systematic strategies.
- Your story about the NFA seeing you and changing the regulation makes no sense at all. You should be insane to believe this is true. Hypothetically if it was true, you can open a fund or a managed account outside of the US.
- Your EAs will never be more performant than a team of 100 Phd analyzing the market.
- I have myself developed multiple systematic strategies, some of them still managing large amount of funds. And never in my life, I have heard of a guy who randomly created a mathematical algorithm and was 'OMG we where surprised'.
You don't just put up numbers and make some math equations, you're looking for a pattern, a market inefficiency, it takes you months before you find something that works and there's no reason why you would be surprised as it's the purpose of your researches.
You wrote 2 full A4 pages of text and yet you haven't explained the basics of your mathematical models.
A 'mathematical' model can be anything from volume equations to a RSI. Most systematic models are based on statistics rather.
I work in a hedge fund.
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Nov 26, 2013 at 09:34
My dad used to have a saying that he taught us when we were young, 'it is better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth a remove all doubt'.
Systemic trading was designed for the forex market because when the forex spot market was started in 2001, there were no systems that came with it. People that say that they have been trading this system for 25 years on a market that is only 12 years old is a wonder to behold.
People that learn systemic trading first have a much easier time learning technical trading later on. People who learned technical trading first tend to say things like they have been trading a system for 25 years without worrying about the fact that there was no way to trade a non existing market for half of that time.
Learn before you earn, there is a way to make a comfortable income through intelligent trading systems but 85% of forex traders lose money, why? Because they don't want to learn how to do it without undue risk and prefer to listen instead to hedge fund managers.
After all that has been said here, there is enough evidence who the new traders investors can trust. I will give them a free program to use and learn on without risk of any kind, What does the the hedge fund manager offer?
Falotus, you really want to back off here, in a battle of wits son, your unarmed.
Good luck everyone, if I can be of help, just let me know. (everyone except falotus of course).
Bob
PS anyone wishing to learn the basics of these mathematical models can learn all you want from the forex-assistant.com website. No, there is far too much to expain any of it here but it is all available to any who wish to learn more.
Systemic trading was designed for the forex market because when the forex spot market was started in 2001, there were no systems that came with it. People that say that they have been trading this system for 25 years on a market that is only 12 years old is a wonder to behold.
People that learn systemic trading first have a much easier time learning technical trading later on. People who learned technical trading first tend to say things like they have been trading a system for 25 years without worrying about the fact that there was no way to trade a non existing market for half of that time.
Learn before you earn, there is a way to make a comfortable income through intelligent trading systems but 85% of forex traders lose money, why? Because they don't want to learn how to do it without undue risk and prefer to listen instead to hedge fund managers.
After all that has been said here, there is enough evidence who the new traders investors can trust. I will give them a free program to use and learn on without risk of any kind, What does the the hedge fund manager offer?
Falotus, you really want to back off here, in a battle of wits son, your unarmed.
Good luck everyone, if I can be of help, just let me know. (everyone except falotus of course).
Bob
PS anyone wishing to learn the basics of these mathematical models can learn all you want from the forex-assistant.com website. No, there is far too much to expain any of it here but it is all available to any who wish to learn more.
where research touches lives.
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Nov 26, 2013 at 10:52
Sleep is for the weak
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Nov 26, 2013 at 11:21
I actually disagree with the basic tone of this article with regards to reading forums, articles, blogs etc.
Sure there is some decent information out there but if 90% ( give or take a few percent ) are failing at retail trading then who's providing 90% of the content on the forums, blogs, articles etc.? I would actually put the percentage content created by losing traders as higher than 90%, as a lot of winning traders keep quiet, knowing that they are in a net zero sum game.
Best regards Steve
Sure there is some decent information out there but if 90% ( give or take a few percent ) are failing at retail trading then who's providing 90% of the content on the forums, blogs, articles etc.? I would actually put the percentage content created by losing traders as higher than 90%, as a lot of winning traders keep quiet, knowing that they are in a net zero sum game.
Best regards Steve
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
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Nov 26, 2013 at 16:37
ForexAssistant posted:
My dad used to have a saying that he taught us when we were young, 'it is better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth a remove all doubt'.
Systemic trading was designed for the forex market because when the forex spot market was started in 2001, there were no systems that came with it. People that say that they have been trading this system for 25 years on a market that is only 12 years old is a wonder to behold.
People that learn systemic trading first have a much easier time learning technical trading later on. People who learned technical trading first tend to say things like they have been trading a system for 25 years without worrying about the fact that there was no way to trade a non existing market for half of that time.
Learn before you earn, there is a way to make a comfortable income through intelligent trading systems but 85% of forex traders lose money, why? Because they don't want to learn how to do it without undue risk and prefer to listen instead to hedge fund managers.
After all that has been said here, there is enough evidence who the new traders investors can trust. I will give them a free program to use and learn on without risk of any kind, What does the the hedge fund manager offer?
Falotus, you really want to back off here, in a battle of wits son, your unarmed.
Good luck everyone, if I can be of help, just let me know. (everyone except falotus of course).
Bob
PS anyone wishing to learn the basics of these mathematical models can learn all you want from the forex-assistant.com website. No, there is far too much to expain any of it here but it is all available to any who wish to learn more.
Nope
Systematic trading exists for 25 or 30 years now on equities, bonds and futures. In 1990 you started to see the really first high-frequency traders which is systematic, later on it gradually evolved towards more complex intraday algorithms and credit risk calculation, which is also systematic.
I work in a hedge fund.
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Nov 26, 2013 at 17:30
stevetrade posted:
I actually disagree with the basic tone of this article with regards to reading forums, articles, blogs etc.
Sure there is some decent information out there but if 90% ( give or take a few percent ) are failing at retail trading then who's providing 90% of the content on the forums, blogs, articles etc.? I would actually put the percentage content created by losing traders as higher than 90%, as a lot of winning traders keep quiet, knowing that they are in a net zero sum game.
Best regards Steve
Hey great point stevetrade!
I completely agree with what you're saying.
The article however is merely from the perspective of an average retail trader and their bizarre mentality RIGHT at the beginning.
Learning to quantify strategies through vigorous trial and error comes next. Much the same as professional traders, it's about working hard to experiment with what works and what doesn't. A lot of these bits of nuggets to play with are laying around online... Evolving and revolutionizing the approach is down to the user.
Thanks the post :)
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Nov 26, 2013 at 23:24
'Systematic trading exists for 25 or 30 years now on equities, bonds and futures.'
Of course you are right, I didn't realize that you were confusing systemic trading with systematic trading. I can see where that could happen. However, the two are not the same. Systematic is some logical procession of events while systemic is to take the entire trading body as a whole.
A grid is an example of a systemic trading system because it doesn't matter which direction the price moves, where it is on the graph or anything else traditional traders worry about. When the price hits a pre-calculated number, a trade opens, at some other pre-calculated point, the trade closes. The entire trading possibilities are accounted for in the one trade. In essence you feather into and out of one trade.
You have been telling me that you didn't understand and I was to busy to listen, I'm sorry.
If you read the book “Robotic Investing”, you will have a much better understanding of the new systemic programs for the forex market. Systematic processes have been around for more than 25 years, systemic trading is only 6 years old and was created for use by a computer. Humans can't do what is required for systemic systems.
My apologies everyone.
Bob
where research touches lives.
forex_trader_165224
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Dec 02, 2013 at 21:35
why 90 percent. i feel 95 percent of the people fail to succeed in forex market. and the reason is only their greediness...
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Dec 02, 2013 at 21:53
Various brokers keep track of those percentages but the numbers change from broker to broker. The lowest I heard of was 75% losers but that was from a very small broker so his numbers were probably skewed.
Bob
Bob
where research touches lives.
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Apr 16, 2014 at 07:04
By the way, as far as I know there is no statistic about how many broker eventually come back to start trade again
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Apr 16, 2014 at 19:11
DGilberto posted:
Hey, thanks Yohana - Hope it could help in some way?
I think the position of PSYCHOLOGY was just to re-emphasize the entire article. I put it in capitals because, essentially, that's what makes up the foundations of a good trader; being able to properly focus on all the other areas, other than money.
You are right though. Psychology is number one. But it's also 2,3,4,5,6,7... It's through-out the entire process :)
Thanks for your post.
Interesting blog, you are absolutely right! Fear, along with greed and hope are the main emotions we have when comes trading. Letting the emotions of greed, fear and hope dictate your trading activity is one of the major reasons why most so many traders fail. Thats why psychology is so important!
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Apr 17, 2014 at 12:19
Do not forget a bought regret also a powerful emotion that can get you into trouble.
"I trade to make money not to be right."
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Apr 17, 2014 at 17:32
Yes, of course. Also there is emotion of excitement can often arise after a trader has made a winning trade, at this point, the trader needs to remember in the heat of that excited moment, that their success in trading over the long run will be determined by how disciplined they are in following their trading plan.
