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How to evaluate this performance?

Lugevho17
Mar 20 2016 at 07:31
25 ieraksti
How would you evaluate a trading system that return 10% profit each month with 10% drawdown? Safe? performant? realist?

Ivan (StoneHeart)
Mar 20 2016 at 15:18
131 ieraksti
It will be looking good with 1 year history , and drawdown 10%

vontogr (togr)
Mar 21 2016 at 15:31
4862 ieraksti
Lugevho17 posted:
How would you evaluate a trading system that return 10% profit each month with 10% drawdown? Safe? performant? realist?


Why dont you post the link to such system?

stian
Mar 21 2016 at 21:24
325 ieraksti
Over the last 5 years? Exellent.

Over the last week? Meh.

HF_Systems
Mar 27 2016 at 13:32
3 ieraksti
As Ivan says, if max DD stays at 10% by the end of the year and the total return is 120% i.e. 12x the max DD then it looks very good. Please bear in mind that this is just for one system which is not as robust as trading a basket of systems as I do. Just out of interest my systems in combination are running at a similar kind of rate:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/fuzi4960/howard-friends-managed-hedge-fund/1474752

I am trading a basket of 10-15 systems where capital is allocated to each component system on an equal basis according to historical maximum drawdown (10-12 years). In this way I am not at the mercy of any one system falling down or under-performing as there are many systems at work at the same time.


Professional4X
Mar 31 2016 at 22:14
1189 ieraksti
HF_Systems posted:
As Ivan says, if max DD stays at 10% by the end of the year and the total return is 120% i.e. 12x the max DD then it looks very good. Please bear in mind that this is just for one system which is not as robust as trading a basket of systems as I do. Just out of interest my systems in combination are running at a similar kind of rate:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/fuzi4960/howard-friends-managed-hedge-fund/1474752

I am trading a basket of 10-15 systems where capital is allocated to each component system on an equal basis according to historical maximum drawdown (10-12 years). In this way I am not at the mercy of any one system falling down or under-performing as there are many systems at work at the same time.




If it looks too good to be true, it's probably a scam! Let the buyer beware.
Kevinrichard
Apr 06 2016 at 13:47
137 ieraksti
You can see if you are a good trader like this :

- Stable profit each month
- Low drawdown (less than 15%)
- Stoploss used

You should check my PAMM account. I trade like this on my account.
I have 10 years experience in Forex.
I trade with my own capital of 15 000$

See you

vontogr (togr)
Apr 06 2016 at 13:49
4862 ieraksti
Kevinrichard posted:
You can see if you are a good trader like this :

- Stable profit each month
- Low drawdown (less than 15%)
- Stoploss used

You should check my PAMM account. I trade like this on my account.
I have 10 years experience in Forex.
I trade with my own capital of 15 000$

See you


While the parameters you stated are indeed right you did not mention account should be at least 6 months old to prove the low DD will remain low.

Kevinrichard
Apr 06 2016 at 14:09
137 ieraksti
togr posted:
Kevinrichard posted:
You can see if you are a good trader like this :

- Stable profit each month
- Low drawdown (less than 15%)
- Stoploss used

You should check my PAMM account. I trade like this on my account.
I have 10 years experience in Forex.
I trade with my own capital of 15 000$

See you


While the parameters you stated are indeed right you did not mention account should be at least 6 months old to prove the low DD will remain low.


Yes of course. In case of my Pamm account its new, but i trade like this during 5 years !

vontogr (togr)
Apr 06 2016 at 14:21
4862 ieraksti
Kevinrichard posted:
togr posted:
Kevinrichard posted:
You can see if you are a good trader like this :

- Stable profit each month
- Low drawdown (less than 15%)
- Stoploss used

You should check my PAMM account. I trade like this on my account.
I have 10 years experience in Forex.
I trade with my own capital of 15 000$

See you


While the parameters you stated are indeed right you did not mention account should be at least 6 months old to prove the low DD will remain low.


Yes of course. In case of my Pamm account its new, but i trade like this during 5 years !


It would be nice to see such account - publish it here. After 5 years of compounding you have to posses millions of USD;)

Kevinrichard
Apr 06 2016 at 15:08
137 ieraksti
togr posted:
Kevinrichard posted:
togr posted:
Kevinrichard posted:
You can see if you are a good trader like this :

- Stable profit each month
- Low drawdown (less than 15%)
- Stoploss used

You should check my PAMM account. I trade like this on my account.
I have 10 years experience in Forex.
I trade with my own capital of 15 000$

See you


While the parameters you stated are indeed right you did not mention account should be at least 6 months old to prove the low DD will remain low.


Yes of course. In case of my Pamm account its new, but i trade like this during 5 years !


It would be nice to see such account - publish it here. After 5 years of compounding you have to posses millions of USD;)


When i started, i hadn't this capital (15 000$) ! I started with 500$ and earned 14500$ since 5 years.
So 3 months ago i decided to open a PAMM account with all my gain (15 000$).

So i don't have millions of USD ;)
But i have a nice capital to live from my trading now without take any risk.

Regards

widh61
May 08 2016 at 06:37
3 ieraksti
Kevinrichard posted:
You can see if you are a good trader like this :

- Stable profit each month
- Low drawdown (less than 15%)
- Stoploss used

You should check my PAMM account. I trade like this on my account.
I have 10 years experience in Forex.
I trade with my own capital of 15 000$

See you


Around 5 years ago when I switch from stocks to derivatives, I might agree. For me now, as long as it keeps making profit and didn't take too long to recover losses(aka drawdowns), its good enough. Simply withdraw your initial investments(plus fee like withdrawal fee, server cost if any, and some profit), you might want to keep some in your bank account to start over just in case. In the real world, all that matters is your total withdrawal vs initial investment. If you are rather new(less than 3 years), I think 30% a year is within reach. With only 30% you already outperform most stock traders and mutual funds out there.

There is always uncertainty component in the market, most of my losses are from Draghi and Kuroda when they give announcements(and creating structural breaks in the data, and invalidates my calculation result). Knowing when your way of trading won't work and when to stop and wait for better conditions helps a lot, it even might make an unprofitable round the clock trading into a profitable one. Do nothing sometimes better than do something that you will regret.

Here's a tip: learn game theories, and economics+statistics modeling. Trade models like institutions do, simply because they are who benefit mostly from this market(beside brokers and con artists of course) and that what they do(at least that what I do when working back then, its all about modeling). Don't waste your time with all those colored lines attached to your chart, wont work in longer term. If it was generating profit, it must have some value. Therefore, you wont get it even if you pay for it. Something good here in this game will always be the best keep secret around ;)


PS:
I do prefer longer timeframe to trade, a few pips noise won't make your actual result differs much from your historical testing.

Continous improvement
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