Diskusija

Well, I'll have to give you a vouch then, won't I.

hey pete,

When you look at 2 sets of currency pairs that have a common denominator such as USD, for example USDJPY and EURUSD, if you take a long position on the EURUSD, but you also see that the USDJPY might be nearing a support level would you consider taking a long in the USDJPY? Simply put, would you take a long position on 2 pairs that may have a somewhat inverse relationship?

2000 posted:
    hey pete,

When you look at 2 sets of currency pairs that have a common denominator such as USD, for example USDJPY and EURUSD, if you take a long position on the EURUSD, but you also see that the USDJPY might be nearing a support level would you consider taking a long in the USDJPY? Simply put, would you take a long position on 2 pairs that may have a somewhat inverse relationship?

To be honest calsig, what I do in the demo account isn't strictly the way I play the live account. I'm thinking of closing it down on here as I'm concerned that it might be used as a signal service and with people's money at risk it worries me.

In answer to your question, I never trade live with correlated pairs. In fact, apart from the odd EURGBP trade when I see certain types of price action, I concentrate purely on the EURUSD. Even now I find that trying to trade multiple pairs on the demo account is affecting my judgement on these trades.

Minimising risk is key to survival in FX and if you're trading two pairs with a common denominator such as USD you either have to reduce your position size on each trade or double your risk. If you're out of the market at the time you get a signal that matches your rules, then I would say pick the signal that takes you back with the dominant trend for one of the pairs. I realise that may sound contradictory but atm it appears that USD is suffering from overall weakness, so I doubt I would go long USD on any pair. There are always short-term contrarian trades to be had but the profit horizons need to be brought much closer in.

Please note: This account is now a demo of my fund management. If you would like to be included in this for the next couple of months I would be happy to include you.

I intend to go live in the New Year as the market can be short of liquidity on the run up to Christmas so no point taking undue risks. To keep things simple I'm laying out a few rules which may or may not apply with live accounts.

I use Alpari UK so would prefer that you create a new demo with them and set the default currency as GBP. You can set the account size at £1000 and this will enable me to easily calculate lot sizes across multiple accounts. Due to the US rules as I understand them Alpari are unable to accept US citizens so I'm restricting this initially to UK citizens.

Those of you who decide to go live with me in the New Year will have the terms and conditions sent to you at that time.

You can contact me via this site in the first instance and we'll go from there.

Here is quick weekly wrap of today's trades and the thinking behind them. If you have any questions then please post them here.

https://www.mediafire.com/?2ldmtwdjzhj

great thread Pete.

calsig2000 posted:
    hey pete,

When you look at 2 sets of currency pairs that have a common denominator such as USD, for example USDJPY and EURUSD, if you take a long position on the EURUSD, but you also see that the USDJPY might be nearing a support level would you consider taking a long in the USDJPY? Simply put, would you take a long position on 2 pairs that may have a somewhat inverse relationship?

Long EURUSD and Long USDJPY is a synthetic EURJPY you have removed the USD component assuming the correct amount of each pair is traded.

freestylefx posted:
    great thread Pete.

calsig2000 posted:
    hey pete,

When you look at 2 sets of currency pairs that have a common denominator such as USD, for example USDJPY and EURUSD, if you take a long position on the EURUSD, but you also see that the USDJPY might be nearing a support level would you consider taking a long in the USDJPY? Simply put, would you take a long position on 2 pairs that may have a somewhat inverse relationship?

Long EURUSD and Long USDJPY is a synthetic EURJPY you have removed the USD component assuming the correct amount of each pair is traded.

Thanks for that. That sort of thinking is way beyond me which is why I only trade one pair in the live account. If I have to think too much I have to have to go outside for another cigarette to steady the old brain. I'm sure calsig2000 has benefited though. 😉

hi peter, been a long time i dont post here...
i'm seeing some of your positive trades went to negative or BEP... has the market changed it trends?or we'll see consolidation period here?

btw, i'm hoping that you continue trading this demo account. i have learn a lot from your trade (i'm using it as a confirmation of my thinking), and i really appreciate your works here...

have a nice trading week tomorrow...

hoedha posted:
    hi peter, been a long time i dont post here...
i'm seeing some of your positive trades went to negative or BEP... has the market changed it trends?or we'll see consolidation period here?

btw, i'm hoping that you continue trading this demo account. i have learn a lot from your trade (i'm using it as a confirmation of my thinking), and i really appreciate your works here...

have a nice trading week tomorrow...

No it's more a case of taking my eye off the ball. I should have been out of the USDCAD trade days ago when it made the last double bottom and the same with the EURCAD.

As the demo is being set up as a trial run for the live managed account, which I hope to start next year, I decided to close the worst trades and start without the dead wood in it. The main trades will now be focussed on the EURUSD or any of the 6 main pairs but I doubt I'll carry more than 1 or 2 trades at the same time. I will be focussing on account preservation and gradual growth rather than the riskier way I've been playing it in the past.

PeterFM posted:
    Regarding moving stops to break even too early. I thought you might all like to read this thread over in FF. I started the thread way back in Jan 2007 and I should point out that virtually all the early replies were from some of the most experienced traders around FF.

It really is an important read and I've just gone back to read it all again. I would like some feedback on this, and any of my other posts, as I've no idea if anyone is reading this stuff. If there's no interest I can save myself some time 😉.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=12273

Very good funny and educational read Peter, including the link to the original turtle papers as well
Thanks for posting here..

Yes, the USD weakness was what prompted me to ask the question. Thanks for the insight.

Peter,

I have connected my demo account onto fxbook, and I was not sure if it was micro lots on the demo account so the first two trades were testing trades and obviously didn't work out. Most likely due to my S&R charting abilities.

I will be on skype tomorrow if you are free.

Thank you

hi peter, looks like you've handled the trend change very well.

i really like your trading!

I wish I had your faith! I hate this time of year and normally close everything down as the drop in liquidity often means there is no follow through on moves.

There seems to be a difference in the way that the EUR and the AUD are re-acting to the current $ strength. The Aussie is holding up better and although in a small retracement at the moment I am looking for support to arrive at 0.0900 and have averaged in as price gets near that region. It's this lack of real overall signs of a lack of commitment to Dollar strength that is frustrating; if there was a clear and obvious down move across all the pairs crossed with the Dollar I could accept that I should be switching to a long-term short position and buy the $ instead. I haven't reached that point yet.

Apart from a few small positions (in drawdown in the live account) I'm staying away from the EUR on the demo account until I see what happens at 1.4500 - my last significant low of the last push up. This time I'm going to wait for some clear price action before going in again on that pair - in fact I might ignore it until the New Year and everyone is back from their holidays.

yeah, i'm exactly in the same position like you.

on one hand you don't want to trade since the condtions are not in your favour, but on the other you just want to keep trading to put your trading skills to the test.

i think you have an excellent observation - currently only eur is going downwards while the rest of the currencies are almost not affected, so i think it is being manipulated while the liquidity is low.

look at the chart i'm attaching:

<a href= target='_blank'><img src= /></a>

i think this is going to be a strong trend downwards - the penetration of the major channel is quite sharp. i've noticed that the more straight the angle of the penetration is, it is more likely the channel will break.

currently i'm waiting for a retrace to enter the short side.

How did you put in the picture? Attach it as a file?

Elkart posted:
    How did you put in the picture? Attach it as a file?

😄 well, yes. i just attach it, and then click the insert button to insert it into the post.

hi peter, looks like my chart is still holding out.

are you looking to short the eurusd already?

Sorry guys, the system doesn't seem to tell me there are posts waiting to be read. I get an email for normal messages but only see these if I go to the Home Page.

I'm struggling to change my bias on this pair; I can't accept that the US economy justifies all this Dollar strength. I agree that there is a lot of positioning going on atm and I suspect we'll know where the truth lies after NFP in January.

In the meantime, I might take any price action signals down to the bottom of the range I've marked on this chart. I've given up trying to trust Support in this market so it'll have to be an outstanding signal to make me pull the trigger before the New Year.

I traded most of this year with barely a losing trade; it's meant large stops and a lot of patience but has worked so far. I've given back more than I ever have since I refunded the account just over 18 months ago. It's not a feeling I enjoy.

These are my levels, if you want to monitor how price reacts to them.

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<a href= target='_blank'><img src= /></a>