Diskusija

TheCyclist posted:
Some guys can really just read the market Chikot.

But I don't want to sit the rest of my life guessing markets. I need something consistent that provides day to day income. That's a bit more tricky.

I did 78% on this account manually in 3 months. I can do it again, but that's not the goal here....for me anyway.

no sir, you did not make 78%..

you made NEGATIVE SIXTY FOUR PERCENT.

coulda and woulda and shoulda does not count.

zero/.

TheCyclist posted:
    Some guys can really just read the market Chikot.

But I don't want to sit the rest of my life guessing markets. I need something consistent that provides day to day income. That's a bit more tricky.

I did 78% on this account manually in 3 months. I can do it again, but that's not the goal here....for me anyway.

The thing is you can trade manually and I wonder why you mention till the rest of your life.
5-10 years of good trading and you can be set. 5-6 hours daily.
The project help you to learn probabilities of each situation which makes manual trading possible and easier for you.
You can start doing it right now but automated trading as you say requires more tinkering, right?

I myslef getting better and better at reading market. I simply do not profit as much as I should from my right guesses so far.

trading resumes in twenty two hours and five minutes.

this image, of my live account, was deleted on the previous page of this thread.

chart begins on june 01, 2011.

Chikot posted:
    I myslef getting better and better at reading market. I simply do not profit as much as I should from my right guesses so far.

cchikot blocked me.

how funnny.

zero/.

Zero blocked me, how funny.

Well,

I'm on a bender in the jungle till further notice. So no blocking anyone. Zero here can do with a bit of unblocking, see Zero, if you block everyone, no one can bump your threads and you end up talking to yourself.

TheCyclist posted:
    Well,

I'm on a bender in the jungle till further notice. So no blocking anyone. Zero here can do with a bit of unblocking, see Zero, if you block everyone, no one can bump your threads and you end up talking to yourself.

😁 I don't think he minds that.

Yep, suddenly noticed I was blocked from Zero's thread despite me not posting there anyway. Just was checking how far mental deterioration has gotten. 😁 So, I blocked him in return I do not expect any helpful or worthy posts from him anyway.

It looks like Mr.ZZZZero is going nuts yet again. Nice little unrealized DD of around 30%.
Blocked probably the only persons who were interested to say something good to him. Bruce and this crazzycow.
I guess he deduced that crazzycow is Bruce but he did not sound like one. Anyway, I guess having this DD makes mr.Zero a little bit touchy.
I suggest next project must be cryogenics.
Kind of Futurama thing.

It's difficult hey. Got to be able to deal with those losses or the fat tail comes and gets you.

And MT makes it super difficult as you can't really get to exact values on the portfolio.

Been doing a little bit of MT work, hoping to have some new stuff this week, if it works I'll fund this account with a thousand or so to start with and after that reward the gains with more deposits...

Think I got something worked out that will even work on MT.

Grim, so you are out of the jungle? Done yet? When are you going to resume trading?

Regarding Zero, it is hopeless. Not only he is a sociopath, he is plainly dumb. After 8 years of trying he hits same wall again and again.
He might get out of this DD yet but the fact is he is in there already with fat tail of 30% of his account.
I have no idea what you are doing to control those fat tail but as I am unable to do same things I just cut losses shot.

I also hope they increase debt limit. I just wonder what would happen to my small account which is in $USD if US defaults. They were not accepting CAD.

Ya - I'm out of the jungle, not for long though, off to Gabon next. Actually one of the better African countries.

Always trading, it never stops. Even when I'm tumble-weeding. Question is what to do with this lot, kinda like to sort it out. Got another round of API'ing in September I hope.

But I'd like to run a small MT account based on the same work. But need thousands for it. Considering O's minimum Metatrader trade size is 1000 units, it goes that anything I want to do on MT needs x 1000 more money. Actually a serious problem.

As for US default, you do realise that as an fx trader you can hedge that risk? Like take a USDCHF position to the same value of your trading account. On 50:1 shouldn't use more than 50:1 of your account, so that you are neutral for the event. So whatever value you lose on your base account you make as profit in the USDCHF position. That's what FX is for really. Or even a CAD hedge. Doesn't really matter which one.

I'll do an example, let's say you got $5000 in the account. That's basically a un-leveraged USD long for you. If USD loses value you lose against your home currency.

So you want to take a $5000 short. At 50:1 on a $5000 trading account you have $250 000 to trade. So $5000 is a small fraction of it.

So you want to sell USD on say Eurusd, but ideally should be on your home pair.

$5000/current price,
5000/ 1.4391 = 3474 units (for Oanda)
3474/10 000 = 0.3474 (for a mini with a lot size 10 000)

Or 0.35 lots. All you need. Dollar risk is gone.....can do what it wants to, what you lose one side you gain the other.

Hope I got that right, not something I work with often. Looks ok on Oanda, would use $300 margin on a $15k account to keep a permanent hedge.

The other thing is what effect would a rapid weakening dollar have on the oil price ?

Value of oil doesn't change. If the value of the dollar is falling then the dollar value of the oil price needs to climb. Need more dollars for same amount of oil....

A very big move on fx will be a 1% or 2% change in value. On a $5000 account that's $50-$100. Wouldn't really worry about it to be honest. When you got billions sure...but for now just nice to work out the theory of hedging for the days when it really matters.

If the value of oil doesn't change I meant to say...

That's crazy. I opened this account to trade oil not to hedge it as I simply have no idea how to hedge and I have not been trading currencies for quite some time and just not watching them anymore. I am intraday trader. it would also not be good for my track record as I have no idea how it is done so it might cause some bad things on my account.
I am not worried about few percentages drop but about real meltdown where USD goes to nothing.
Regarding oil, if US defaults oil most surely will drop. Default means damage to economy not only of USA but worldwide, which in turn means reduced consumption of everything including oil. Hence drop in price. This is what happened in 2008.

Crazy? Where do you think all the instruments you're trading comes from ? All the derivatives are from people trying to hedge risk, including oil, that's why people take options and futures contracts.

Fx is just an extension of that to a degree, and big business use it to hedge currency risk. That's how Oanda started up.

As for oil, I think a weaker dollar will lead initially at least to resources inflation, as all resources are priced in dollar. What will happen to demand, got no idea...