Razor EA (By TendencyForex)
| Pieaugums | +118.22% |
| Kritums (Drawdown) | 30.06% |
| Pipi: | 9785.6 |
| Darījumi | 6908 |
| Uzvaras |
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| Zaudēt |
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| Tips | Reāls |
| Kredīta plecs: | 1:400 |
| Tirdzniecība | Automatizētā |
Diskusija
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:11
Looking ahead, we will keep a close eye on potential Russia-Ukraine headlines today. USD will see more Fedspeak today, although we do not expect this to move markets. SEK sees an economic tendency survey, while EUR will eye economic confidence data as well as German CPI. GBP will listen in to BoE’s Broadbent’s speech. Latam sees inflation and unemployment prints from BRL and MXN respectively. THB will see a rate decision in which Citi Economics expects no change at 0.50%
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:12
DXY saw a brief rally post the European close, although the trend downwards continued in Asia. G10 FX saw NZD, CHF and EUR buoyed significantly on a weaker dollar and better risk sentiment. The highlight in FX, however, was the outperformance of JPY (+1%). We elaborate more in the next section.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:12
EMFX gained as well, with USDAsia down considerably, as Asian markets open to a weaker dollar. KRW led the pack at +0.95%, THB came in at +0.85% and TWD saw an increase of +0.66%.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:13
Equities continued their rally in NY, and Asia saw major indices flat as they held onto their gains. Kospi and HSI were up 0.3% and 1.15% respectively, while Nikkei saw a decline of 1.43% as Japanese markets were roiled by BoJ operations.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:14
Oil prices recovered considerably after the initial crash lower towards the European close. Gold pared all losses yesterday to trade around the 1925 handle.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:14
US yields collapsed in Asia, with all tenors seeing 5-6bps declines. This came after focus on the US 2s10s, which briefly inverted in the NY session for the first time since 2019 after the repo blowout and prior to that
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:15
JPY was initially under pressure in early Asian trading as the BoJ doubled down on bond buying plans by increasing the sizes of today’s scheduled buybacks and adding long-end purchase operations, something our JGB trader had been looking for.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:16
While we remain bearish on JPY over the medium term and expect portfolio rebalances by long-term investors to be a flow factor depressing the JPY, such rebalances are unlikely to happen in a large scale this month. While the USDJPY rise earlier this month appears to be stretched, we see a very short-term risk of the pair’s correction over the next few weeks with the market expectations for rebalance turning out disappointing.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:16
USD: The Fed’s Bostic earlier today noted that he favours six hikes this year, but would remain flexible on the pace of hikes depending on the economy. We note that Bostic is not a voter this year on the rate-setting FOMC.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:16
KRW rallied 0.95%, with bulk of the gains after an open higher (tracking KRW NDF moves overnight). Kospi opened considerably higher, following the gains of US equities, but this tapered off as the day progressed, trading close to flat near the Europe Open.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:17
CLP saw a 150bps rate hike late in the NY session, with the overnight rate target now at 7.00%, vs the expectation of a 200bps hike. We flag that CLP had underperformed ahead of the rate decision. The rate decision was followed by comments that future rate hikes will be smaller, in what seemed to be communication that the tightening cycle will be less aggressive in the future. We also flag that the rate hike is the first under new central bank president Rosanna Costa.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:17
USD: Fed official Barkin’s speech at the Rural Economy Event at 14:15 BST. Fed speeches are expected to be hawkish, with relatively little deviation from last week’s rhetoric, which left 50bp hikes well on the table for not only one, but multiple meetings this year, as reviewed by Citi Economics here.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:17
SEK: Economic Tendency Survey at 08:00 BST for March. Citi Economics expects 105.0 vs 113.0 prior as a consequence of the geopolitical conflict and the supply shock. A softer print may dent SEK and hawkish Riksbank pricing in the short-term, given how quickly SEK priced in the hawkish shift in rhetoric from Riksbank officials over the last weeks.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:18
GBP: BoE's Broadbent speaks at 09:10 BST. Citi Economics looks for 1) the perceived hit to demand owing to recent energy price moves; 2) the potential for sustained domestically driven inflation in the face of such pressures; and 3) concerns about BoE’s own institutional credibility (and inflation expectations). Comments from Broadbent may be somewhat more circumspect but may nonetheless hint at more near-term tightening.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:18
EUR: Eurozone Economic Confidence at 10:00 BST for March, followed by Germany CPI YoY at 13:00 BST for March. Citi Economics expects a big drop in the Euro Area economic sentiment index, following last week’s very weak confidence surveys. The team expects the overall index at 103 in March vs 114 prior, with retail trade confidence dipping into negative territory (-2.0 in March
vs 5.4 prior) and industrial, services, and construction confidence seeing similarly strong dips to 8.0, 4.0, and 2.0, respectively.
vs 5.4 prior) and industrial, services, and construction confidence seeing similarly strong dips to 8.0, 4.0, and 2.0, respectively.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:18
BRL: FGV Inflation IGPM YoY at 12:00 BST for March. Citi Economics forecasts 1.65% YoY vs 1.83% YoY prior. We expect IGP-M inflation to remain elevated in March, as the wholesale component (IPA) should continue imposing upward pressures at ~2.0% MoM (vs 2.4% MoM in February).
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 07:19
MXN: Unemployment Rate NSA at 13:00 BST for February. Citi Economics expects 3.66% vs 3.71% prior. The unemployment rate has gradually declined since H2 2021, despite the stagnation of activity. We expect the unemployment rate to remain relatively stable for the rest of 2022, given i) the moderate pace of activity, ii) overall employment recovery, and iii) the gradual increase of the participation rate.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 17:05
The dollar remains on the defensive this morning in moves which reflect mixed
signals on risk appetite and locally-driven moves in the likes of EUR and JPY.
signals on risk appetite and locally-driven moves in the likes of EUR and JPY.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 17:05
EUR-USD has extended its push higher this morning, boosted by much higher
than expected inflation readings. The provisional reading for Spanish inflation in
March rose 9.8% YoY, up from 7.6% previously, and well ahead of consensus of
8.0%. In Germany, March inflation data for individual states suggest a MoM increase
of around 2.5% for the national number when it is released later this morning. The
consensus is for a 1.6% rise. There has been a notable increase in expectations for
ECB tightening over the last few days, with the 1Y1M future 25bp higher now than it
was at the end of last week.
than expected inflation readings. The provisional reading for Spanish inflation in
March rose 9.8% YoY, up from 7.6% previously, and well ahead of consensus of
8.0%. In Germany, March inflation data for individual states suggest a MoM increase
of around 2.5% for the national number when it is released later this morning. The
consensus is for a 1.6% rise. There has been a notable increase in expectations for
ECB tightening over the last few days, with the 1Y1M future 25bp higher now than it
was at the end of last week.
Biedrs kopš
107 ieraksti
Mar 30, 2022 at 17:06
GBP-USD is higher this morning on further evidence of inflationary pressures,
but the warning signals on the UK consumer remain plentiful. The BRC measure
of inflation on the high street rose to 2.1% YoY in March from 1.8% in February,
leaving it at its highest level since September 2011. The conundrum for policymakers
is whether to tighten aggressively into this inflation surge, or take greater
account of the squeeze on real household incomes.
but the warning signals on the UK consumer remain plentiful. The BRC measure
of inflation on the high street rose to 2.1% YoY in March from 1.8% in February,
leaving it at its highest level since September 2011. The conundrum for policymakers
is whether to tighten aggressively into this inflation surge, or take greater
account of the squeeze on real household incomes.
