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U.S. Leading Economic Index Slumps More Than Expected In November
(RTTNews) - The Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing a continued slump by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of November.
The report said the leading economic index tumbled by 1.0 percent in November after sliding by a revised 0.9 percent in October.
Economists had expected the leading economic index to decrease by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.8 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.
"The US LEI fell sharply in November, continuing the slide it's been on for most of 2022 after peaking in February," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board.
"Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November," he added. "Labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth."
Meanwhile, the Conference Board said its coincident economic index inched up by 0.1 percent in November after rising by 0.2 percent in October.
The lagging economic index also crept up by 0.2 percent in November after coming in unchanged in the previous month.
"Despite the current resilience of the labor market—as revealed by the US CEI in November—and consumer confidence improving in December, the US LEI suggests the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening cycle is curtailing aspects of economic activity, especially housing," said Ozyildirim.
He added, "As a result, we project a US recession is likely to start around the beginning of 2023 and last through mid-year."
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