Brexit

mlawson71 posted:

Magiic posted:

mlawson71 posted:
It looks like the British are flocking to Bitcoin to try and avoid the crash of their own currency. Coinbase reports a surge of over 350% of bitcoin purchases from UK clients. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/07/01/coinbase-sees-record-sign-ups-uk-around-brexit-vote/) This is one of the largest increases they've seen from one region over the period of one week.

That makes sense. Any personal view if it will move up more and or sustain it's price? Or down as fast as it went up?

It moved up right after Brexit for obvious reasons, whether it will continue moving up in the future depends on the political situation in the UK, I suppose.

I think it will be up quite a bit by the end of the year, considering Europes banking system looks pretty under the pump.. Could be the next crisis, or it could be bailed out and everything continues as normal :o

Brexit was a baby!

We are on the verge of seeing a far larger crash in the British Pound.


https://forum.5ssforex.com/blogs/5ss-forex-analysis/606-the-imminent-crash-of-the-british-pound

Well there is still a small chance that the Great Britain will not leave the European Union. Still referendum is rather a recommendation unless accomplished fact, though all objective evidences says the opposite and I do think that it will happen. Well anyway we’ll see but I will look at situation from a safe distance

Hero76 posted:
Well there is still a small chance that the Great Britain will not leave the European Union. Still referendum is rather a recommendation unless accomplished fact, though all objective evidences says the opposite and I do think that it will happen. Well anyway we’ll see but I will look at situation from a safe distance

i wish they leave

this link is more a
fearmonger to me
https://forum.5ssforex.com/blogs/5ss-forex-analysis/606-the-imminent-crash-of-the-british-pound

Hero76 posted:
Well there is still a small chance that the Great Britain will not leave the European Union. Still referendum is rather a recommendation unless accomplished fact, though all objective evidences says the opposite and I do think that it will happen. Well anyway we’ll see but I will look at situation from a safe distance

With Brexit general Boris Johnson taking charge of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. And according to a Downing Street spokesman Mrs May has already spoken to European leaders (German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny) to express her 'commitment to delivering the will of the British people to leave the European Union', so that is pretty much off the table.

rob559 why are you wishing that? What is your general purpose or benefit? Just earn some money or something more? Frankly, I think that it is a fait accompli, and the output is still held. The world is reshaped now in a new way and a new Mayor of London who is Muslim very clear to testifies this

rob559 posted:

Hero76 posted:
Well there is still a small chance that the Great Britain will not leave the European Union. Still referendum is rather a recommendation unless accomplished fact, though all objective evidences says the opposite and I do think that it will happen. Well anyway we’ll see but I will look at situation from a safe distance

i wish they leave

this link is more a
fearmonger to me
https://forum.5ssforex.com/blogs/5ss-forex-analysis/606-the-imminent-crash-of-the-british-pound

That link is completely from a fearmonger site. They just want to sell signals. They have very few posts, limited number of members, and long term signal service....yah right. I prefer quick and smaller profits than playing global political analyst. Anyway, looks like the Pound is building a bottom. It is in a range now, and will start to climb when the Euro will be getting more bad news from France, Italy, and other countries that will want to exit the EU. Looks like the UK saved the world for the third time, this time without firing a shot.

EU looks to be falling apart for quite some time, no one's really got the will to push through reforms, Italy's banks for example are just ruined.
 Why would England want to be a part of it? As nice it is to think everyone's together, why prop up countries that are doing little to change and continue to fail. Corruption is huge and the chance of it disappearing is none, get out and be independent.

Countries continue to trade and travel between one another. It's not an all out situation. Simply a little more independence from the bureaucrats in Brussels.

With the latest news out of France, I would expect all EU countries to start looking at reforms, from EU and locally. Albeit the information is still scarce and responsibility still not clear, the view from all participating EU countries on local security and [possibly] immigration may take a foothold.

The EU has proven that it cannot provide security (financial or otherwise), with the state of the lower tier countries in financial turmoil, and the larger participants taking the brunt financially and with regards to security (let's assume for a second that the attacker / driver is not a local Frenchman), all participants will start asking, 'won't we be better off on our own? create our own market connections and enforce our own borders on our terms'. With the state of affairs worldwide, this is extremely likely.

It might be unsavory short term, but it might just make a lot of sense to leave the EU for the long term benefits. As Magixs says, with UK going out (and open to individual one on one trade agreements with all European countries), why would the others need the EU?

I noticed a lot of Germans say the UK stabbed them in the back... well realistically there is nothing stopping a UK-German citizenship open border agreement (or similar for every country on individual terms) as well as legislation on current employment and resident individuals from other countries.

So a lot of news still to come and a lot of market movers in the pipeline.

Successful trading and stay safe out there, the world seems to be getting crazier every day.

To follow up on the previous question about Bitcoin:

A recently published study from Juniper Research – a UK consulting and analysis company specializing in the identification and appraisal of high growth opportunities – says that the total value of Bitcoin transaction would triple by the end of this year. It is expected that to exceed $92 billion, up from $27 billion in 2015. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/07/13/analysts-on-bitcoin-the-one-to-watch-transaction-value-to-tripe-by-end-2016/) And according other big name analysts the cryptocurrencies continue to gain popularity, but the Bitcoin “is the one to watch”. They forecast that the effect of the Pound’s fall might drive further the value of the Bitcoin. According to them, it could reach $900, which would be close to the historical high of $1132 in December 2014.

Magixs I absolutely agree with you. Great Britain does not want to be on a sinking ship and pay for it. Enough to mention that almost all the young people of Eastern Europe and Baltic countries go to live and work in Great Britain. In addition, the UK does not want to be under German in a world where everything is changing quite quickly. They are fighting for their power to influence the world

mlawson71 posted:
To follow up on the previous question about Bitcoin:

A recently published study from Juniper Research – a UK consulting and analysis company specializing in the identification and appraisal of high growth opportunities – says that the total value of Bitcoin transaction would triple by the end of this year. It is expected that to exceed $92 billion, up from $27 billion in 2015. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/07/13/analysts-on-bitcoin-the-one-to-watch-transaction-value-to-tripe-by-end-2016/) And according other big name analysts the cryptocurrencies continue to gain popularity, but the Bitcoin “is the one to watch”. They forecast that the effect of the Pound’s fall might drive further the value of the Bitcoin. According to them, it could reach $900, which would be close to the historical high of $1132 in December 2014.

Interesting mlawson71, thanks for the read.

Anyone here holding bit coins for longer term?


and Hero76, agreed, and no one on the leave side thought it would be an immediate positive, but a longer term gain. Something the stay people don't seem to get yet.

I've been demo trading for about 5 years but it has been only recently in the last year that I started paying attention to the fundamentals. Since the time I started paying attention, the BREXIT is the most memorable event. My question is: isn't there always some sort of catastrophic event happening in the markets? What were some of the last few significant events from history? (I'm asking, I don't know)

RMC3WLP68T posted:
I've been demo trading for about 5 years but it has been only recently in the last year that I started paying attention to the fundamentals. Since the time I started paying attention, the BREXIT is the most memorable event. My question is: isn't there always some sort of catastrophic event happening in the markets? What were some of the last few significant events from history? (I'm asking, I don't know)

There are a few of those from time to time, yes. Like Brexit and the unplugging of the CHF from EUR (this caused many brokers to go bankrupt), some of the events are more gradual, like the start of the US rate hike cycle and the Euro rate cut continuation.

stian, how many significant events do you estimate occur each year? When did the CHF unplug from EUR and also, what does that unplugging actually mean? As for the more gradual events like rate hikes and cuts, I'm guessing that is just business as usual. I'm trying to figure out how many and how often are the out-of-ordinary events like BREXIT and CHF Unplug.

Sorry, unpegged. EURCHF was capped at 1.20 till 15 January 2015. The CHF rose 30% when this was removed.

The major events like Brexit aren't all too common. There have been one in 2016 (Brexit), one in 2015 (CHF unpeg). arguably one in 2014 (ruble voletility, leverage limited), none in 2013 (government shutdown didn't really cause much action), none in 2012 either, a few in 2011 (like the introduction of the CHF peg).

stian posted:
Sorry, unpegged. EURCHF was capped at 1.20 till 15 January 2015. The CHF rose 30% when this was removed.

The major events like Brexit aren't all too common. There have been one in 2016 (Brexit), one in 2015 (CHF unpeg). arguably one in 2014 (ruble voletility, leverage limited), none in 2013 (government shutdown didn't really cause much action), none in 2012 either, a few in 2011.

Cool, good to know. I'll have to research those and learn about history a bit.

Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen

Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen

I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol