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RMC3WLP68T
Jul 18 2016 at 08:57
24 комментариев
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen

I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol
Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.

What does that mean for the markets if Clinton becomes president? I guess I don't understand the reasoning why USD would gain or lose value with Clinton.
stian
Jul 18 2016 at 09:08
325 комментариев
RMC3WLP68T posted:
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen

I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol
Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.

What does that mean for the markets if Clinton becomes president? I guess I don't understand the reasoning why USD would gain or lose value with Clinton.

As I said, I don't think the result (of Clinton winning) will affect the market much. On the off-chance that Trump would win however,
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-default-national-debt_us_572d08e3e4b096e9f0917fac
This:

“I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” Trump told CNBC. If the U.S. borrowed too much and invested its fresh cash in unproductive products, Trump would tell creditors to accept less than what he’d initially agreed to.

Another way to describe this plan: “I would default on the national debt.”
That would be devastating.
RMC3WLP68T
Jul 18 2016 at 09:10
24 комментариев
@stian Yes, that makes sense. I've never traded on fundamentals so I was trying to figure out the thought process.
xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 09:42
235 комментариев
Looking from a third perspective (I'm not a US citizen), it seems Trump will openly spend an enormous amount of money on questionable 'non-essential' infrastructure (like a wall) though he does seem determined to fix the economy, and Clinton will spend an enormous amount of money on everything (and lie about spending it), she seems to be more focused on fixing 'working class' problems (I haven't heard her mention the poor and impoverished - Trump seems one up on this)... both seem to be a negative outlook for markets either way.

Obama claims Clinton has a plan and Trump doesn't... from where I'm sitting I still don't see any concrete plans (yes, pun intended Mr. Trump, lol!) from either, and the supposed (theoretical) plans seem to be 'presidential nomination regurgitation' that a president has yet to deliver, and none seem to accomplish the goals (promises), or will fix one thing and totally annihilate another (Obamacare? - sound idea, bad implementation and overly complicated - but he did curb job losses, eh?).

Though I think the markets will move based on policy implementation after elections, I don't think the election itself will make a profound impact (The US election process is so long and drawn out, the markets are adapting in real time as the process unfolds).

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 10:08
235 комментариев

“I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” Trump told CNBC. If the U.S. borrowed too much and invested its fresh cash in unproductive products, Trump would tell creditors to accept less than what he’d initially agreed to.

Another way to describe this plan: “I would default on the national debt.”
That would be devastating.

That would be more akin to a credit review, not a default. Your creditors accepting less (less interest or just outstanding capital loan amount - no interest (thereby accepting the interest they have made as final), is not a default. If anything, the US is already defaulting (not paying certain loans) as they cannot afford it ($Trillions), Trump would renegotiate on outstanding debt and not take on more debt on unproductive products / services - that's what he's saying. He also says it right there “I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” - if the US economy crashed, creditors would get nothing, by default. He would be willing to make a deal with creditors (secured government bonds? who knows.) thereby not defaulting at all.
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Hero76
Jul 18 2016 at 13:55
39 комментариев
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen

I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol
Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.
Well if Clinton will win we will see a lot of wars in Asia Africa and Eastern Europe because global business have to save their power and money from crash. For them it is te question of survival becausr there is a big fight in elite they are not unite anymore.
RMC3WLP68T I will not answer your question but we'll see
xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 14:04
235 комментариев
Hero76 posted:
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen

I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol
Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.
Well if Clinton will win we will see a lot of wars in Asia Africa and Eastern Europe because global business have to save their power and money from crash. For them it is te question of survival becausr there is a big fight in elite they are not unite anymore.
RMC3WLP68T I will not answer your question but we'll see

I'm also leaning toward a Trump win... primarily because I'm curious to see what that wall will look like :-D
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Magixs (Magiic)
Jul 18 2016 at 14:44
435 комментариев
RMC3WLP68T posted:
stian posted:
RMC3WLP68T posted:
Hero76 posted:
Well I think in that case a lot of response to USA elections which is coming this year. Situation in States is very unstable just have a slightly look at news. But I think almost everyone understands who is going to be next president here and what kind of politic trend will be chosen

I don't know, who is going to be the next president? lol
Clinton is having a major lead in general election polls (only exception this month was Rasmussen Reports?), and 4.5 point lead in RCP 4-way average.

Don't think the result will affect the market much.

What does that mean for the markets if Clinton becomes president? I guess I don't understand the reasoning why USD would gain or lose value with Clinton.


If Clinton wins, the top 1% will be much better off and not have to change a whole lot if anything at all, which will in turn put the USD in a positive position, as no immediate change would occur. If Jill stein or Bernie Sanders were to win ( which is impossible now) then there would be serious change to the way the american businesses/economy run, and the USD would tank downwards.

Reality and change for the best does not always equate to gains in the pair it is about.

Trump wins = who the F knows what will happen next and the USD would probably rally due to global concerns since he has ridiculous ideas. And has come out and said ridiculous things, so that could well be the end of the USD being the global reserve currency.

It's happened time and time again, and D Trump would be a fair reason for it to happen once again.

xgavinc
Jul 18 2016 at 15:22
235 комментариев
When it really comes down to it, the US president has little to no power anyway (in the grand scheme of things). He / She still has to get through the Senate and Congress. He or she can appoint people into certain positions, veto bills, grant reprieves and pardons except in the case of impeachment and is bound by the constitution. Anything beside that is done by recommendations to Congress (requiring 2/3rds majority support in almost anything). The Supreme Court can also override decisions the president makes that they deem are legally irresponsible. Each state has it's own set of rules and governing body that are untouchable by the president.

So what most candidates say and what they do or more likely CAN do, is entirely not up to them.

The only traits required by a good president is negotiation and bargaining (not bribery) to get government support.
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
RMC3WLP68T
Jul 19 2016 at 06:53
24 комментариев
xgavinc posted:
When it really comes down to it, the US president has little to no power anyway (in the grand scheme of things). He / She still has to get through the Senate and Congress. He or she can appoint people into certain positions, veto bills, grant reprieves and pardons except in the case of impeachment and is bound by the constitution. Anything beside that is done by recommendations to Congress (requiring 2/3rds majority support in almost anything). The Supreme Court can also override decisions the president makes that they deem are legally irresponsible. Each state has it's own set of rules and governing body that are untouchable by the president.

So what most candidates say and what they do or more likely CAN do, is entirely not up to them.

The only traits required by a good president is negotiation and bargaining (not bribery) to get government support.

Yes, true. Thanks for that reminder. That's a downside (or upside) to having the 'check and balance.'
vontogr (togr)
Jul 19 2016 at 07:22
4862 комментариев
There would be volatility during election and it calms dawn afterwards. Regardless the new king:)
mlawson71
Jul 19 2016 at 08:46
1487 комментариев
Magiic posted:
mlawson71 posted:
To follow up on the previous question about Bitcoin:

A recently published study from Juniper Research – a UK consulting and analysis company specializing in the identification and appraisal of high growth opportunities – says that the total value of Bitcoin transaction would triple by the end of this year. It is expected that to exceed $92 billion, up from $27 billion in 2015. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/07/13/analysts-on-bitcoin-the-one-to-watch-transaction-value-to-tripe-by-end-2016/) And according other big name analysts the cryptocurrencies continue to gain popularity, but the Bitcoin “is the one to watch”. They forecast that the effect of the Pound’s fall might drive further the value of the Bitcoin. According to them, it could reach $900, which would be close to the historical high of $1132 in December 2014.


Interesting mlawson71, thanks for the read.

Anyone here holding bit coins for longer term?


and Hero76, agreed, and no one on the leave side thought it would be an immediate positive, but a longer term gain. Something the stay people don't seem to get yet.



You're welcome. I too would like to hear the opinions who trade bitcoin for the long-term. Any opinions?

As for the long-term gain - the question now is just how long people will have to wait before that happens. And what happens to the many people who will have to weather the interim.
Hero76
Jul 20 2016 at 06:23
39 комментариев
Dear everyone, we need to look deeper into the events, and not draw conclusions on the facade events, in-depth understanding of global processes makes it possible to anticipate an event and make the conclusion about the approximate time it will happen. I am sure that the US presidential elections will have a significant impact on the markets but at the same time it may probably will be not so obviously to see
vontogr (togr)
Jul 20 2016 at 08:22
4862 комментариев
Hero76 posted:
Dear everyone, we need to look deeper into the events, and not draw conclusions on the facade events, in-depth understanding of global processes makes it possible to anticipate an event and make the conclusion about the approximate time it will happen. I am sure that the US presidential elections will have a significant impact on the markets but at the same time it may probably will be not so obviously to see

It would not work,

e.g. NFP moves EURUSD thousand pips up and suddenly thousand pips down. There is no logic to analyze no pattern to spot.
I would prefer slow and steady account growth rather than gamble by trading such events.
Hero76
Jul 20 2016 at 19:24
39 комментариев
[email protected] Well this is your opinion and I respect that. At the same time it is ok for me to have different one. I already wrote my thesis’s in another topics and I still believe that changes that come are going to be huge and will affect currencies a lot
RMC3WLP68T
Jul 21 2016 at 05:02
24 комментариев
togr posted:
Hero76 posted:
Dear everyone, we need to look deeper into the events, and not draw conclusions on the facade events, in-depth understanding of global processes makes it possible to anticipate an event and make the conclusion about the approximate time it will happen. I am sure that the US presidential elections will have a significant impact on the markets but at the same time it may probably will be not so obviously to see

It would not work,

e.g. NFP moves EURUSD thousand pips up and suddenly thousand pips down. There is no logic to analyze no pattern to spot.
I would prefer slow and steady account growth rather than gamble by trading such events.

Hi, did you mean (hundreds) of pips or thousands of pips? The reason I ask is I wonder if pips on a cent account are magnified by factor of 10.
mlawson71
Jul 26 2016 at 08:53
1487 комментариев
Even the brokers hardest hit by the referendum results seem to be recuperating, at least for now (https://smnweekly.com/2016/07/21/cmc-markets-increases-client-base-revenue-per-client-drops-q2-2016/). The industry reacted well to the Brexit news and protected itself, but what happens if or when the UK does invoke article 50? People had plenty of warning about the referendum date, will they have the same warning about the UK actually following through the referendum results?
keith Mellor (Sceadagenga)
Jul 26 2016 at 10:52
83 комментариев
Everybody has plenty of warning about the invocation of article 50. It will be in the New Year and not before.

The only people who can invoke it are the UK elected government.

UK parliament has now broken off until the new autumn session.

We may have a challenge to our constitution which might lead to a change in order to trigger article 50 and this would need (if required) reading in then approving by the Lords.

I would watch the Queens Speech prior to reopening of Parliament to get arough timeline.
Si eius XCIX% Ius ergo est Nefas - Sileo processus (If its 99% Right then it is Wrong - Restart the process)
xgavinc
Jul 27 2016 at 10:17
235 комментариев
Sceadagenga posted:
Everybody has plenty of warning about the invocation of article 50.

As Sceadagenga states. Any liquidity will come directly from new policy reform, the 'Brexit' rapids are over.

@Hero76 I created a thread for US Elections 😀
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Hero76
Jul 27 2016 at 19:49
39 комментариев
xgavinc , very generous, thank you! I am very pleased that in spite of my short time presence in this forum it has already resulted to start threads where I almost got a personal invitation to! Little success! Sure I'll be a frequent visitor to this thread and be sure I will subscribe to it!
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