ATFX ​Market Outlook 18th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 18th September 2025

Fed Cut Fails to Fuel Dovish Momentum, Gold, Stocks Retreat

Market HighlightThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled further easing ahead, with policymakers’ median projections pointing to an additional 50 basis points of cuts this year. However, Chair Jerome Powell stressed that this was a “risk management cut” rather than the start of a prolonged easing cycle, aimed at cushioning against a sharp economic slowdown. The Dow Jones rose 0.57%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq lost 0.33%. The U.S. dollar staged a sharp reversal, with the Dollar Index up 0.3% at 96.926. EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.18305.

Gold prices retreated after briefly touching a record high of $3,707 per ounce, with spot gold closing down 0.8%. Meanwhile, oil prices ended their winning streak, pressured by rising U.S. diesel inventories that fueled demand concerns, alongside the Fed’s rate cut.

Key Outlook

The Bank of England announced its policy decision later today. Markets widely expect no change in rates, but attention will be paid to policymakers’ assessment of recent data. Traders will be looking for signals on a potential rate cut in November, as U.K. inflation has rebounded toward 4%, while July GDP growth stalled and labor market conditions remain weak.

Key Data and Events Today:

19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM AUG **

Tomorrow: 

07:30 JP CPI YoY AUG ** 

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MoM AUG **  

14:00 GB Retail Sales MoM AUG ** 

14:30 BOJ Governor Press Conference *** 

20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM AUG ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1857/1.1888

· Support: 1.1788/1.1758

EUR/USD retreated 0.3% to 1.1830 after spiking to 1.1918, as the Fed’s 25bps cut and Powell’s cautious tone prompted profit-taking. The pair stays in an ascending channel with support at 1.1788; holding above 1.1857 may open the path to 1.20.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3670/1.3698

· Support: 1.3581/1.3553

GBP/USD edged up 0.08% to 1.3658, near a 2.5-month high, as easing UK inflation concerns offset weak labor data. Technically, the pair holds above 1.3581 support; a rebound toward 1.3670 is likely if this zone holds.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.31/147.74

· Support: 146.35/145.91

USD/JPY rebounded 0.1% to 146.65, holding below the 147.31 resistance trendline. Focus remains on Friday’s BoJ meeting, with rates expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. A failure to break 147.30 could see a retest of 146.35 support.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 64.28/64.82

· Support: 62.53/61.98

WTI crude slipped 0.73% to $64.05 as rising U.S. diesel inventories fueled demand worries, despite Russian supply risks. Technically, prices are consolidating near $63.20 support, with $64.28 as key resistance. A break below $62.53 could deepen the pullback.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3685/3696

· Support: 3638/3627

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.88/42.30

· Support: 40.88/40.55

Spot gold slipped 0.9% to $3658 after hitting a record $3,707, as Powell framed the cut as “risk management.” Technically, the uptrend channel holds; support sits near $3,638, with upside targets around $ 3,685–$ 3,696 resistance levels.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46160/46255

· Support: 45851/45758

The Dow Futures rose 0.57% to 46,018, supported by financials like AmEx. Technically, the price is held within an ascending channel, with support at 45,851 and potential upside toward 46,160. A breakout of 46,160 resistance could lead to further gains. The next resistance is seen at 46,255.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24471/24589

· Support: 24086/23969

NAS100 slipped 0.32%, dragged by Nvidia’s 2.6% drop. Technically, price holds above 24,086 support, with scope to retest 24,471 if AI optimism continues.

BTC

· Resistance: 118597/119813

· Support: 114745/ 113548

Bitcoin steadied near $116,700 after hitting a one-month high. On-chain data show falling exchange reserves and rising stablecoin balances, signalling potential buying power. Technically, BTC holds its uptrend above $114,745 support, with scope to test $118,597.

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