ATFX Market Outlook 25th February 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 25th February 2025 

Euro Digest: German Election Results; Gold Reaches 11th Dollar Record of 2025

[Markets highlight]

The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 1% on Monday, with big technology stocks creating the most significant drag as investors worried about demand for technology supporting artificial intelligence. At the same time, they waited for results from market-heavyweight Nvidia.

On Monday, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped 0.07% to 106.57 after dipping to 106.12, its lowest since December 10. The euro eased off highs from a brief rally on Monday as the focus shifted from Germany's conservatives' election victory to how quickly a coalition government can be formed.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

15:00 EU GERMANY GDP Final Q4 ***

23:00 US CB Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index FEB **

Tomorrow

API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

AU CPI JAN **

EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence MAR **

US New Home Sales JAN **

EURUSD

1.0484/1.0497 Resistance

1.0443/1.0426 Support

Investors on Monday initially welcomed Germany's election result and praised the new government's 'pro-growth' policies, but the early bounce in EURUSD faded. The EUR/USD remains hunkered below 1.0500 as bulls run out of steam, eyeing support from the 10-day moving average.

GBPUSD

1.2667/1.2692 Resistance

1.2583/1.2558 Support

GBP/USD rose early on Monday, achieving a new high since December 19 last year. However, it failed to recapture the 1.2700 threshold and may fall back to the 10-day moving average, with support around 1.2594.

USDJPY

150.95/151.52 Resistance

149.03/148.57 Support

USDJPY reversed from the support area on Monday, halting a three-day selloff. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY may defend the December low to confirm a double bottom and stage a rebound back to the 150 threshold.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

71.37/71.81 Resistance

69.98/69.55 Support

Oil prices settled higher on Monday as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and a commitment to compensate for overproduction by Iraq added to concerns of near-term supply tightness, helping the market recover some of Friday's steep losses. As WTI recovers above $70, facing resistance from the 10-day moving average.

Spot Gold

2967/2979 Resistance

2935/2921 Support

Spot Silver

32.89/33.15 Resistance

31.81/31.55 Support

On Monday, supported by the sluggish dollar, gold prices hit a new record high above $2950/ounce, refreshing the record high to $2956. Gold-backed ETFs have seen the most significant net inflows since 2022, supporting prices. The primary moving average on the daily chart provided a foundation of support; the next resistance would be $2980.

Dow Futures

43800/44043 Resistance

43047/42816 Support

The U.S. stock market kicked off the week with significant indexes mostly down as Big Tech stumbled and renewed tariff worries emerged. Dow marked a three-day decline, but it may hover in the lower range and look for support around 43000.

NAS100

21595/21741 Resistance

21157/20973 Support

Nasdaq100 (NQ) slid more than 1% on Monday. Investors were concerned about future demand for Nvidia's pricey AI chips as they awaited its quarterly results on Wednesday. The trend line from January has become at a resistance level, indicating potential declines below 21200.

BTC

93651/94591 Resistance

89671/88476 Support

Bitcoin's price was down 3.9% to a three-week low due to President Trump's new tariffs, deepening a broader crypto market selloff that erased more than $110 billion in value. The short-term trend is downward, focusing on whether prices might reach the January low near $89200.

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