ATFX Market Outlook 29th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 29th July 2025

S&P 500 Extends Record Rally as Trade Deal Optimism Builds

Market HighlightU.S. stocks finished mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 advancing for a sixth consecutive session to reach another record close. The Nasdaq also hit a new all-time closing high amidst volatile trading, as investors gauged the impact of the US-EU trade agreement and prepared for key events later this week. The Dow Jones declined by 0.14%, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.33% and the S&P 500 rose marginally by 0.02%. 

The U.S. dollar recovered against major currencies, supported by the U.S.-EU trade deal, which increased market certainty and helped avoid a broader global trade war. USD/JPY climbed 0.59% to 148.535, while EUR/USD fell 1.25% to 1.1591. Gold prices dropped to a near three-week low, as the trade agreement strengthened the dollar and risk appetite. Investors now await the upcoming Fed meeting for clues on interest rate policy. Spot gold declined 0.7% to $3,314.04 per ounce. Oil prices rose 2% following the US-EU agreement and as President Trump announced a shortened deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine conflict or face sanctions.

Key Outlook

Today, markets will focus on the U.S. June JOLTs Job Openings report, which provides a monthly overview of job vacancies across business, industry, and government. As a forward-looking indicator of labour demand, this data could give early signals about U.S. employment trends. At the same time, the July U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released and is expected to show continued improvement.

Key Data and Events Today: 

20:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM JUN **

22:00 US JOLTs Job Openings JUN **

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence JUL **

Tomorrow: 

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

09:30 AU CPI QoQ Q2 **

14:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales JUN **

16:00 EU GERMANY GDP QoQ Flash Q2 ***

17:00 EU QoQ Flash Q2 ***

20:15 US ADP Employment Change JUL ***

20:30 US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 ***

20:30 US Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q2 ***

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM JUN **

22:30 BoC Press Conference ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1644/1.1671

· Support: 1.1554/1.1527

EUR/USD slumped to 1.1591, posting its biggest daily drop since mid-May as the US-EU trade deal boosted the dollar and weakened safe-haven flows. Technically, the pair broke below its trendline support and remains under pressure; a failure to reclaim 1.1644 may lead to further downside toward the 1.1554 support zone.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3396/1.3422

· Support: 1.3275/1.3249

GBP/USD dropped to 1.3355 as broad dollar strength and receding risk aversion pressured the pound ahead of key central bank meetings. Technically, the pair has broken below its trendline support, and a failure to reclaim the 1.3396 level may expose further downside toward the 1.3275 support level.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 149.19/149.57

· Support: 147.92/147.53

USD/JPY climbed to 148.535 (+0.59%) as easing trade war concerns from the US-EU deal supported the dollar. BOJ commentary remains in focus. Technically, the break above 147.92 resistance signals further bullish momentum, with the next target near 149.19.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 67.45/68.27

· Support: 66.12/65.45

WTI crude surged nearly 3% to $66.97, driven by the US-EU trade deal and Trump’s shortened ceasefire ultimatum on Russia. Technically, a breakout above the descending trendline and the 66.12 support level suggests potential upside toward 67.45, provided momentum holds.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3343/3359

· Support: 3295/3279

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.50/38.74

· Support 37.48/37.24

After breaking below the ascending trendline, XAU/USD found support near $3,314. However, any rebound faces strong confluence resistance at the prior highs and the trendline retest zone around $ 3,343. If price fails to reclaim that zone, bears may retarget $3,295 and potentially lower. The broader trend remains bearish ahead of the FOMC policy decision.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45015/45149

· Support: 44591/44460

The Dow Futures have pulled back after breaking above the trendline and are now consolidating near the 44591 support zone. If these base holds, a retest of the 45,015 resistance looks likely. The overall structure remains bullish, although volatility may rise ahead of the Fed policy release.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23484/24038

· Support: 23049/22607

The NAS100 remains within a rising channel, consolidating near the upper range. A firm break above 23,484 resistance could open the path toward new highs along the channel top. However, failure to hold the midline support may lead to a pullback toward the 23,049 area.

BTC

· Resistance: 118772/119442

· Support: 116728/115885

BTC/USD consolidates around $117,900, facing pressure from descending trendlines. The highlighted support zones between $116,728 and $115,885 could provide a platform for a bullish reversal. A strong rebound from that region may retest $118,772 and potentially break above the trendline, shifting the bullish structure in the short term.

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