Technical Outlook on USD/JPY, GBP/USD, BTC/USD

ISM services PMI --> USD/JPY

Friday’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report threw cold water over dollar bulls as employment growth slowed rapidly to a double-digit increase in July and the prior two releases faced a dramatic negative revision of 258k. The negative market reaction deepened after President Trump abruptly fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics' CEO, citing unproven data manipulation. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis attributed the weak figures to seasonal factors and delayed business submissions.

The probability of a September rate cut surged to 88% as traders also digested a soft ISM manufacturing PMI and the unexpected resignation of Fed board member Adriana Kugler, which opened the way for a more dovish appointment. Markets now await Tuesday’s ISM services PMI, expected to show a modest improvement.

USD/JPY tumbled immediately by 2.25% on Friday, snapping a four-day rally after almost touching the key 151.00 level. While short-term trajectory has been improving since July, the sudden drop raises questions about trend sustainability. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 147.13 and a climb above the 20- and 200-day EMAs near 147.80 could revive upside potential. Otherwise, a break below the 50-day EMA at 146.45 may extend losses toward 144.00–144.40.

Bank of England Policy Decision --> GBP/USD

The Bank of England (BoE) takes the spotlight this week with its policy announcement scheduled for Thursday. Despite inflation running at nearly double the BoE’s 2.0% target, markets anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut to 4.0%, likely with at least one dissenting vote. The central bank faces mounting pressure as recent data shows the UK economy losing momentum, with the unemployment rate rising for three consecutive months to a three-year high of 4.7%.

This week’s meeting will also bring updated economic forecasts. Markets will be watching closely for divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee and any potential changes in the pace of quantitative tightening – particularly given the headwinds from new US tariffs and stagnant growth.

GBP/USD has been suffering from political instability and sluggish economic data recently, even as it has avoided harsh US tariffs. Its muted response to last week’s NFP release reflects persistent market caution. While technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, a sustainable recovery would likely require a break above the 1.3360 neckline of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, followed by a push through the 1.3450–1.3500 resistance zone.

If bearish momentum persists and the pair slips below May’s support at 1.3135—which offered a rebound on Friday—the next target could be the psychologically significant 1.3000 level.

Fed speakers --> BTC/USD

Bitcoin mirrored equity markets last week, dropping in response to weaker-than-expected US data. The cryptocurrency found support near its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 112,000. The key question now is whether dovish signals from the Federal Reserve could reignite bullish momentum through the liquidity channel.

Technical indicators offer some hope: the RSI and stochas oscillator have rebounded from oversold territory. However, persistent uncertainty over economic growth, the impact of tariffs, and the Fed’s institutional independence could continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

A couple of Fed officials are scheduled to speak particularly on Wednesday, potentially offering new insight into future policy direction. Still, BTC/USD must decisively break above the 20-day SMA and resistance at 117,260 to signal a bullish continuation. A failure to hold above 110,750 would instead open the door for further downside, possibly toward the 105,770–107,500 support zone.